Will the U.S.-China tariff war drive up online shopping prices for Canadians?

Clicking "add to cart" whitethorn soon travel with immoderate further sticker shock.

As tariff pressures unit immoderate sellers successful China to increase their prices for U.S. markets, immoderate retail experts accidental Canadians buying online could perchance consciousness the ripple effects connected everything from electronics to socks.

This comes arsenic U.S. President Donald Trump hiked duties connected Chinese goods to 145 per cent this week, raising the stakes successful a commercialized warfare that threatens to upend planetary proviso chains. In response, Beijing connected Friday accrued its tariffs connected U.S. imports to 125 per cent.

Canada whitethorn person avoided a caller circular of tariffs, but it doesn't mean we won't beryllium affected by the China-U.S. commercialized warfare eventually, said Jean-François Ouellet, an subordinate prof successful entrepreneurship and innovation at concern schoolhouse HEC Montréal who specializes successful planetary marketing.

"Canada is often caught successful the crossfire," Ouellet told CBC News.

That's due to the fact that galore e-commerce orders placed connected Canadian sites — including Amazon.ca — are fulfilled from the United States or routed done U.S. organisation centres, helium said.

"If those goods are made successful China, and the U.S. slaps caller tariffs connected them, the accrued outgo whitethorn get passed connected to Canadian shoppers — particularly if the merchandise crosses into the U.S. earlier arriving successful Canada."

WATCH | U.S. tariffs connected China could pb to terms hikes successful Canada:

Will Amazon prices spell up?

It's looking that mode successful the U.S., astatine least.

China's largest cross-border e-commerce relation said connected Wednesday that galore Chinese companies that merchantability products on Amazon are preparing to boost prices for the U.S. oregon discontinue the marketplace owed to the tariffs.

This sentiment was echoed by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who told CNBC connected Thursday it's apt that its web of millions of third-party sellers — galore of which are based successful China oregon root their products from determination — volition person to walk the outgo on to consumers.

By Friday, it had already started happening. Chinese electronics institution Anker, which is 1 of Amazon's largest sellers, raised prices connected a 5th of its products connected the U.S. platform.

What astir Amazon.ca?

It's little wide however this volition impact Canadian consumers connected Amazon.ca, explained Nicholas Li, an subordinate economics prof astatine Toronto Metropolitan University.

Theoretically, the domain sanction doesn't needfully correlate with warehousing and distribution, Li said. For example, you tin bargain products shipped from different countries connected Amazon.ca.

"But successful practice, astir of the goods you would spot connected Amazon.ca are warehoused successful Canada, and the prices are already inclusive of immoderate tariffs," helium said.

So if a lawsuit orders from Amazon.ca, they volition not apt spot terms increases from U.S.-Chinese tariffs, said Samuel Roscoe, a lecturer successful operations and proviso concatenation absorption astatine the University of British Columbia's Sauder School of Business.

Goods coming done U.S. warehouses oregon organisation networks, however, could "still beryllium deed by the ripple effects," Ouellet, of HEC Montréal, added.

Could different buying sites beryllium affected?

Popular online buying sites similar Temu, Shein and Walmart.ca could beryllium affected by the China-U.S. tariffs, some Li and Ouellet said. Last year, for example, Chinese sellers accounted for 28 per cent of each progressive sellers connected the Walmart website, according to Marketplace Pulse, a steadfast that collects information connected e-commerce businesses.

A increasing fig of e-commerce orders — particularly from platforms similar Temu, Shein, oregon adjacent third-party Amazon sellers — are dropshipped straight from China to the customer, Ouellet said.

While these shipments often bypass U.S. tariffs, if Canada were to travel the U.S. pb oregon summation inspections, duties or postal handling fees, it could rapidly impact prices oregon transportation times, helium added.

"And if U.S. argumentation disrupts planetary shipping lanes oregon creates uncertainty successful sourcing, adjacent direct-from-China dropshipping could go much costly implicit time."

OK, but are Canadian buying sites safe?

Many Canadian companies manufacture items in China. Aritzia, Lululemon and Canadian Tire, for example, all manufacture immoderate of their products overseas and merchantability them southbound of the borderline — though immoderate are moving to displacement accumulation extracurricular China.

If these goods are imported via the U.S. oregon if earthy materials are affected by tariffs, accumulation costs tin rise, Ouellet said, adding that larger companies whitethorn person much flexibility successful their proviso chains to accommodate successful the abbreviated term.

Lululemon and Aritzia also person organisation centres successful Canada, Roscoe said, which allows them to debar tariffs.

WATCH | What does 'Made successful Canada' mean?:

What items could emergence successful terms the most?

Electronics (such arsenic phones, accessories and tiny appliances), apparel, footwear and housewares are apt to beryllium the hardest hit, Ouellet said.

"These are categories wherever China has agelong been a ascendant supplier, and galore of these items question done U.S. logistics hubs earlier reaching Canadian consumers," helium said.

In principle, goods that are imported into the U.S. for re-export to Canada shouldn't beryllium taxable to U.S. tariffs, Ouellet said, but successful reality, real-world logistics are "messy" with a batch of country for error.

"U.S. customs agents are already overwhelmed, and the rules astir tariffs close present are mind-boggling," helium said.

"Goods meant for re-export to Canada mightiness get mistakenly classified and taxed, oregon suppliers mightiness determine it's conscionable safer and easier to physique those imaginable costs into their prices — which yet trickles down to the Canadian shopper."

When volition we spot prices spell up?

Li, of Toronto Metropolitan University, points retired that determination was a batch of stocking up of inventory and pre-emptive importing successful anticipation of these tariffs. So some of the terms changes mightiness beryllium delayed due to a "wait and see" approach, helium said.

This is particularly existent for Canadians, Li added, since the interaction present is more indirect.

"But by delay, I mean months, not years."

Is determination a metallic lining for Canada anywhere?

Both Ouellet and Li accidental there's a accidental immoderate prices for Canadian consumers could really spell down, depending connected however things play out. For example, if U.S. tariffs connected Chinese producers marque it harder for them to merchantability to the U.S., this may pb them to lower their prices successful different markets similar Canada, Li said.

And if U.S.-China commercialized grinds to a halt, China volition apt look to redirect its exports elsewhere, Ouellet said, which could payment Canadian consumers successful immoderate categories if surplus proviso floods the market.

"So we mightiness spot higher prices connected immoderate products that walk done the U.S.," helium said, "but besides unexpected bargains connected others, particularly from sellers shipping straight from China to Canadian buyers."