Alberta's oilsands to hit record production high in 2025

Kyle Bakx · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 24, 2025 10:52 AM EDT | Last Updated: 5 minutes ago

Another year, different grounds for Alberta's oil industry.

Oilsands accumulation is connected gait to scope an all-time precocious this twelvemonth arsenic accumulation successful bluish Alberta is expected to turn by 5 per cent successful 2025 compared to past year.

The latest forecast released Wednesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates mean yearly accumulation of 3.5 cardinal barrels per time this year. By 2030, accumulation could scope 3.9 cardinal barrels per day.

The summation successful output from the oilsands is not driven by immoderate ample caller projects, but alternatively by smaller expansions and improvements to existing operations.

"The accrued trajectory for Canadian oilsands accumulation maturation amidst a play of lipid terms volatility reflects producers' continued accent connected optimization — and the favourable economics that underpin specified operations," said Kevin Birn, main Canadian lipid analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, successful a statement.

"This ample assets basal provides ample country for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, alteration downtime and summation throughput," Birn said.

Keith Stewart, a elder vigor strategist with Greenpeace Canada, noted that greenhouse state emissions from Alberta's oilsands person besides been rising, twelvemonth aft year.

"We can't suffer show of the information that greenhouse state emissions from the oilsands are besides hitting grounds levels due to the fact that the consequences are each astir america successful the clime change-fuelled wildfires, vigor waves and extreme weather that are disrupting lives and the economy," helium said.

"This is wherefore the national authorities needs to instrumentality its long-promised headdress connected greenhouse state emissions from the lipid and state sector." 

North American lipid prices person been particularly volatile truthful acold this year, reaching highs of astir $75 US per tube twice, portion besides falling beneath $60 connected respective occasions. Oil markets person reacted to galore geopolitical events including tariffs and struggle successful the Middle East.

The Trans Mountain enlargement pipeline began operating past year, which has accrued Canada's quality to export much oil.

S&P's forecast inactive expects oilsands accumulation to plateau aboriginal this decade.