Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Turkey. But Russia's president may be a no-show

When Ukraine's president arrives successful Turkey, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will conscionable with the country's person Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but a cardinal portion of the travel is to nonstop the connection that helium is acceptable for face-to-face talks with Vladimir Putin, adjacent if the Russian president isn't. 

On Thursday, Turkey volition big the archetypal nonstop bid talks betwixt Ukraine and Russia since 2022, a meeting Putin projected connected Saturday astatine the aforesaid clip that helium refused a 30-day ceasefire, contempt an ultimatum from Europe that demanded Moscow hold oregon beryllium saddled with caller rounds of sanctions.

Instead, successful an effort to look similar helium is acceptable to negotiate, Putin suggested restarting the failed bid talks that were held successful Istanbul successful precocious March of 2022 just arsenic Russia was abandoning its unsuccessful effort to propulsion connected Kyiv. 

The effect to Putin's proposal was swift and, for the Kremlin, possibly surprising. 

U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed that the talks should spell up adjacent without a ceasefire, hinting that since helium was en way to the Middle East, helium mightiness adjacent driblet by. 

Zelenskyy vowed that helium would travel to Istanbul to conscionable with Putin directly, a wide effort to goad the person who seldom leaves Russia and lone ever participates successful carefully controlled events wrong the country. 

Russia says it volition person a delegation successful Istanbul, but the Kremlin's spokesperson says Putin hasn't officially named who is going — though determination are reports the country's overseas minister, Sergey Lavrov, volition beryllium headed to Turkey. 

Among Ukraine's allies, the anticipation is that Putin volition beryllium a no-show. 

"I deliberation it's a bully determination if they beryllium down … but I don't deliberation [Putin] dares," said Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign argumentation chief, during a acme successful Copenhagen connected Tuesday. 

"Putin has shown precise intelligibly that helium inactive wants war," Kallas said.

WATCH | Zelenskyy agrees to bid talks with Putin:

Growing frustration 

It has been much than 2 months since Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, and the U.S medication is increasing progressively impatient with Moscow's refusal to halt warring and commencement negotiating — repeatedly threatening to propulsion retired arsenic a mediator if determination isn't advancement soon.

Last week U.S. Vice-President JD Vance said Russia was asking for "too much."

Trump said the talks successful Istanbul could nutrient "good results," but if they don't and Washington views Russia arsenic the holdout, they could further sour relations. 

Dozens of U.S. senators are portion of a bipartisan radical presently moving connected authorities to unveil much sanctions targeting Russia if the bid talks flounder. 

"The Russian president projected [the talks] because helium wants to resistance this out, " said Hanna Shelest, a non-resident elder chap astatine the Center for European Policy Analysis. 

"The eventual extremity is to not marque Trump excessively pissed disconnected with the Kremlin and commencement afloat supporting Ukraine and expanding sanctions against Russia."

Shelest, who lives successful Odesa, Ukraine, wherever she is besides the manager of information studies astatine the non-government overseas argumentation assembly "Ukrainian Prism," said it is important for the U.S. to beryllium progressive successful the talks because, dissimilar Europe, Russia volition speech to Washington. 

Given that Russia consistently frames the warfare arsenic a proxy conflict with the west, she says U.S. officials request to beryllium astatine the table. 

And fixed the planetary information issues, she says truthful does Europe. 

While Trump said helium would be the talks if it was "helpful," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio volition beryllium successful Istanbul and, according to Reuters, truthful volition U.S. peculiar envoys Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff. 

Witkoff has already made four trips to Moscow this twelvemonth to conscionable Putin, who hasn't budged connected immoderate of his demands for Ukrainian territory and insists the state needs to stay neutral and person its subject importantly weakened. 

2022 negotiations

Four days aft Russia launched its full-scale invasion, delegations from Moscow and Kyiv met successful Belarus for bid talks, according to an probe by the New York Times, which published draught dialog documents from the earlier days of the war. 

After the gathering successful Belarus, determination were video calls and then, connected March 29, both sides met successful Istanbul. The documents revealed areas wherever Russia and Ukraine managed to negociate agreements and besides wherever they were inactive acold apart. 

While Kyiv's negotiators agreed to forgo NATO rank and accept the Russian concern of parts of their territory, they refused to admit Russian sovereignty implicit them. 

There were besides stark disagreements astir the spot of Ukraine's military, on with what information guarantees Kyiv would person if it were to beryllium attacked again. 

Shelest, who has spoken with immoderate of those progressive successful the negotiations backmost then, told CBC News that Ukraine is successful a overmuch stronger presumption present successful negotiations.

Over the past 3 years, it has been capable to retake immoderate of the territory Russia seized successful the aboriginal weeks of the war, and its subject has been bolstered by occidental weapons and the accelerated improvement of its ain defence industry. 

She says this caller circular of talks won't pb to overmuch if Russia doesn't marque immoderate concessions, and is instead set connected using the negotiations to get what it didn't triumph connected the battlefield. 

While Russia has rejected calls for a 30-day truce, Putin unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire past week to coincide with the country's solemnisation of Victory Day, which marks the decision of Nazi forces during the Second World War. 

Both sides reported that warring continued crossed the beforehand enactment during that period. 

During a gathering with concern officials connected Tuesday, Putin claimed that 50,000 to 60,000 volunteers are enlisting with the Russian service each month. 

While helium said the state needed to beryllium prepared to look further sanctions, helium didn't notation the pending talks successful Istanbul. 

Turkey's balancing act  

Turkey, which has been trying to equilibrium its ties with some Russia and Ukraine, was credited for helping to unafraid the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022, which allowed for the harmless transition of cultivation exports from Black Sea Ports until Russia refused to widen the woody successful 2023. 

While it has facilitated talks betwixt some sides before, including those that led to captive swaps, Helin Sari Ertem, a governmental idiosyncratic astatine Istanbul Medeniyet University says she doesn't deliberation Turkey has the power to measurement successful arsenic mediator if the U.S. decides its had capable and bows out. 

"Turkey is not successful a presumption to use unit connected Russia," said Sari Ertem successful an interrogation with CBC News via Zoom. 

 "The United States can, Trump can, but Turkey cannot due to the fact that it is simply a determination power."

But she says Turkey's presumption is unique. It's a subordinate of NATO and has sent drones to Ukraine, but fractional of its earthy state imports travel from Russia. It has associated concern projects with Moscow, including a larger atomic powerfulness plant, which became operational this twelvemonth successful Turkey and was built by Rosatom, a Russian authorities corporation.

"Turkey tin supply a harmless spot for these kinds of negotiations," Sari Ertem said.

"Trump is fed up with the warfare … and Europe cannot proceed supporting Ukraine to the afloat extent. They each request idiosyncratic to bring the sides together"