Why Vancouver Island is shaping up to be a hot spot for strategic voting

Maryse Zeidler · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 14, 2025 8:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 11 minutes ago

A increasing fig of left-leaning voters crossed B.C. are thinking of voting strategically arsenic polls amusement the state has immoderate of the tightest races successful the country.

JB Burrows, laminitis and managing manager of SmartVoting.ca, a tract that helps voters take left-leaning candidates successful their riding that it believes are astir apt to win, says Vancouver Island, successful particular, is an anomaly crossed Canada.

"There's nary different spot successful this state wherever the parties that are not Conservative are truthful competitory with each other," Burrows told CBC News. 

The 7 ridings connected Vancouver Island person traditionally swung backmost and distant from the Conservatives to the NDP. The Green Party is besides a beardown contender successful the region, with co-leader Elizabeth May holding 1 of the party's 2 seats. 

There hasn't been a Liberal MP connected the land since 2011. But pollsters accidental that could alteration with this predetermination arsenic Carney and the Liberals summation support.

Meanwhile, adding different left-of-centre enactment to the premix of viable candidates is presenting a hard prime for immoderate voters. 

"The land is inactive incredibly split," Burrows said.

The Trump factor

Pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co, says strategical voting and concerns astir vote-splitting aren't caller oregon partisan issues.

Canseco says Conservative voters person been likewise disquieted successful past elections erstwhile the right-leaning Reform Party and People's Party of Canada person had stronger support. 

What's antithetic this time, helium says, is however aboriginal successful the run speech of strategical voting has started. 

"It's happening earlier due to the fact that of the power of Donald Trump," helium told CBC News. "What is happening is simply a heightened level of interest astir who forms the government."

Canseco says astir a 3rd of Canadians accidental that Canada-U.S. relations is the apical contented for them, and it's pushing different issues similar housing, the system and the situation to the back.

But Canseco warns against basing decisions connected information that shows riding-level numbers, which helium says is often based connected nationalist numbers and doesn't usually instrumentality the power of a circumstantial candidate. 

"It's a amusive exercise. But it's not a riding level pool, right?"

Conservative enactment further north

Despite concerns among immoderate left-wing voters, the Conservatives person a batch of enactment successful immoderate Vancouver Island ridings.

In the North Island - Powell River riding, Conservative campaigner Aaron Gunn has faced calls for his resignation and a petition for his removal. 

Gunn is besides facing a societal media run from left-wing voters to not divided the vote, specifically successful his riding. 

But Gunn has besides received a batch of support, including from section elected officials.

Should 1 take to disregard Canseco's proposal and believe riding-level polls, Gunn is acold up of his rivals.

Polls for Courtenay-Alberni Conservative campaigner Kris McNichol also amusement him with a important lead.

The riding's Green Party candidate, Chris Markevic, says despite being approached by "several people" asking him to driblet retired and endorse incumbent NDP campaigner Gord Johns successful bid to debar ballot splitting, he's choosing to enactment put. 

"The NDP are 100 per cent responsible for the messiness they person made. As a erstwhile subordinate myself, I cannot number however galore times we told them to halt pretending to beryllium the Liberals," Markevich posted connected X, formerly Twitter.

"Their enactment has mislaid its individuality successful the Canadian governmental landscape, and that is not the responsibility of the Greens."

The Freedom to vote

Further southbound connected the island, John Wilson, CEO of Wilson's Transportation and a erstwhile B.C. Conservative campaigner says strategical voting isn't new.

"It's a strategy, each right," Wilson said. "We should each person the state to ballot for the idiosyncratic oregon the enactment that we spot fit."

Wilson's riding, Saanich-Gulf Islands, is 1 of the tightest races connected Vancouver Island. 

SmartVoting.ca shows a astir three-way divided betwixt Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, Conservative campaigner Cathy Ounsted and Liberal campaigner David Beckham. 

"I conscionable accent for radical to ballot for who they deliberation is champion suited for their riding and champion suited to correspond our country," helium said.