White House uses Hamilton economist's paper to justify tariffs — but misses his point 'trade wars are bad'

Samantha Beattie · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 12, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 11 minutes ago

Twice this month, the White House has utilized a Hamilton subordinate professor's research to assistance warrant U.S. President Donald Trump's jaw-dropping tariffs and ongoing commercialized warfare with China.

Both times, the Trump medication got it wrong, said Pau S. Pujolas, an subordinate economics prof astatine McMaster University. 

"On the 1 hand, it's like, 'Wow, I'm having input,'" Pujolas told CBC Hamilton connected Friday. "On the different hand, it's not what this insubstantial deserves." 

The archetypal clip the White House cited the 2024 paper, "Trade deficits with commercialized wars," was successful its explanation of however it calculated the slew of "reciprocal tariffs" aimed astatine dozens of countries. Pujolas's article is among the references. 

Those tariff numbers were besides listed in the monolithic illustration Trump held up during his April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement when he elaborate a 10 per cent broad tariff complaint connected astir each country, with galore getting deed harder. 

It was the 2nd time, connected Monday, that truly caught Pujolas's attraction and that of his colleagues.

The economist was successful a schoolhouse gym having conscionable won a hoops crippled — and a spot successful the finals of a "very amateur league," helium said — erstwhile helium saw a text from a mentor and friend informing him, "You're famous. I'm not definite you're going to similar it." 

WATCH | How acold volition China spell to bushed U.S. successful commercialized war?: 

Trump's apical economical adviser, Stephen Miran, who helped trade the tariffs, made the lawsuit for them astatine a blimpish probe institute successful Washington, D.C. The White House published a transcript of his remarks online, including a footnote to Pujolas's paper, which is the lone world probe cited. 

"More caller economical analyses ... amusement that by imposing tariffs against exporting countries, the U.S. tin amended economical outcomes, rise revenues and enforce immense losses for the tariffed nation, adjacent with afloat retaliation," Miran said. 

But the conclusions Pujolas and co-author Jack Rossbach, an adjunct prof astatine Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., made successful their insubstantial were not that straightforward, Pujolas said.

And they surely don't support Trump's 145 per cent tariffs connected each Chinese goods, helium said.

(Beijing deed backmost with 125 per cent tariffs connected U.S. imports connected Friday.)

'Trade wars are atrocious always'

Pujolas and Rossbach used mathematical modelling to find however commercialized imbalances interaction a country's welfare, focusing connected the U.S. commercialized shortage with China and the interaction of tariffs during Trump's archetypal word successful 2018 to the extremity of erstwhile president Joe Biden's word successful 2024. 

"The intent of the papers was to recognize the information — wherefore this tin hap and what are the consequences?" helium said.

What they recovered was if the U.S. had put specific tariffs connected circumstantial products from China (which didn't happen), "there was country for humble maturation oregon gains astatine the ample disbursal of China,"  Pujolas said. 

That's the connection the White House has seized connected — the imaginable benefits it could gain, helium said. 

But the insubstantial comes to different conclusion, too. The champion outcome globally would be no tariffs, Pujolas said.

"We privation to debar commercialized wars," said Pujolas. "Trade wars are atrocious ever and everywhere." 

Pujolas had expected the insubstantial to convey a benignant of informing to policymakers astatine the World Trade Organization (WTO), for example, that commercialized deficits request to beryllium avoided erstwhile countries enter multilateral agreements.

Deficits tin pb to countries adopting tariffs they deliberation volition beryllium beneficial, but really origin much harm to the planetary economy than bully domestically, helium said.

He and Rossbach co-authored different paper, published successful February, astir however Canada should respond to U.S. tariffs.

They recovered Canada should absorption little connected retaliatory tariffs and much connected removing interprovincial commercialized barriers.

"I'm precise blessed that connection caught steam," helium said. 

As for the White House citing his different paper, Pujolas said there's not overmuch helium tin bash astir it, but if they were to scope out, "I would instantly archer them to stop."