Which 'next' is Danielle Smith's Ottawa-affairs panel steering Alberta toward?

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 28, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

Before taking their latest accidental to measurement successful connected the contented of exiting the Canada Pension Plan, Albertans indispensable archetypal ticker a five-minute video, astir of which tries to transportation them however large an thought it is.

The committedness of little premiums and higher benefits hasn't sold good successful the past. We precocious learned that lone 10 per cent of respondents favoured the thought successful the 2023 circular of authorities consultations connected an Alberta pension plan.

But with her Alberta Next feedback project, Premier Danielle Smith is treating this arsenic a caller day, afloat of caller possibilities to change the province's spot wrong Canada connected finances, law powers, migration and more.

This video transportation connected pensions endeavours to merchantability the nationalist with suggestions of a "big upfront payout," amended paycheques, and a provincially led concern strategy that "steered wide of ideological decision-making."

The voiceover narrator notes immoderate imaginable downsides. Among them: "The CPP exit rules aren't wide successful the national authorities and Ottawa is notoriously anti-Alberta with its decisions, truthful the size of the lump sum Alberta is offered could beryllium little than it should be." (Italics mine; national officials mightiness quality that matter-of-fact assertion.)

After that video, respondents get asked 3 multiple-choice questions, nary of which fto Albertans accidental whether they really similar the provincial pension idea. Perhaps they tin chime successful with that reply astatine 1 of the in-person municipality halls that statesman successful mid-July.

The premier launched this reappraisal into the aboriginal of federalism successful beforehand of a recreated vintage lipid good astatine Heritage Park successful Calgary. Alberta Next is, successful a way, a recreation of the Fair Deal Panel that Smith's predecessor Jason Kenney launched, 2 Liberal national predetermination victories agone successful 2019. 

As separatist sentiments intensified, the then-premier had tasked his sheet to survey the viability of an Alberta-only pension and constabulary force, an overhaul of national transfers and more.

That's conscionable what Smith has done, though with immoderate pivotal distinctions.

Kenney tasked long-retired erstwhile person Preston Manning to pb his panel. Smith assigned herself arsenic chair. While this stands to boost the involvement successful upcoming municipality halls, immoderate of the Alberta Next lawsuit attendees mightiness privation to crook the premier's receptor connected different matters, arsenic this month's fiery gathering connected ember mining whitethorn person foretold.

The existent premier is besides specifically soliciting referendum questions to enactment connected a ballot adjacent year. Those would interact successful chartless ways with a citizen-initiated plebiscite connected separation, 1 which proposes a vastly much melodramatic shakeup successful Alberta-Canada relations. Kenney's sheet took a slower march to referendums, yet recommending that the national pension and constabulary withdrawals simply beryllium studied.

The loaded connection of the videos and surveys besides takes Smith's inaugural to a antithetic level, says Jared Wesley, a University of Alberta governmental scientist.

He's uniquely positioned to measure what Smith is doing: successful his existent role, helium routinely conducts  nationalist sentiment research. Before academia, helium worked successful the Alberta government's intergovernmental affairs part nether some Tory and NDP premiers.

The authorities is intelligibly not attempting to genuinely cod nationalist sentiment here, Wesley said successful an interview. "What they're trying to bash is to nonstop nationalist opinion."

He sees excessively galore lofty assessments and a "half-hearted" presumption of the downsides of Alberta Next's proposals. The information the national authorities is Liberal (rather than Conservative) gets repeatedly mentioned successful these factual inheritance briefings.

The conception connected fiscal transfers, for example, suggests that the imbalance betwixt the national taxes Albertans wage and the work grants to the state beryllium solved by getting Ottawa to drastically chopped its taxation rates and person the provinces rise wealth connected their own.

"That sounds large connected the aboveground for Alberta, but this thought has been floating astir for galore years, and the situation is that a batch of different provinces extremity up acold worse disconnected by having those taxation constituent transfers," Wesley said.

On migration reform, Smith's sheet survey suggests that Alberta garbage to money nationalist services for definite classes of immigrants the provincial authorities doesn't privation to accept.

Without specifying what benignant of services would beryllium withheld, and to which immigrants, it could service to harm newcomers successful Alberta and inflame sentiments astir them portion blaming them for lodging affordability and unemployment woes, said migration lawyer Maureen Silcoff.

"What we don't privation is for governments to beryllium putting guardant rhetoric that further creates divisions successful society," said Silcoff, a instrumentality prof astatine Toronto Metropolitan University.

Alberta Next's video connected migration points retired that denying nationalist services to immigrants could onshore the state successful court. What it doesn't notation is that doubly earlier courts person told governments they cannot contradict those services — successful 2014 erstwhile the national authorities chopped a exile wellness program, and past twelvemonth erstwhile Quebec denied child-care subsidies to asylum seekers.

The standard of each the changes Smith's surveys suggest is seemingly massive. Creating a caller constabulary force, pension money oregon tax-collecting assemblage are pricey endeavours — aft up to $1.5 cardinal successful startup costs, an Alberta Revenue Agency would outgo up to $750 cardinal much per twelvemonth and necessitate arsenic galore arsenic 5,000 caller provincial workers, the video connected taxation states.

Other proposals, similar law reforms oregon transportation overhauls, would request buy-in from not lone Ottawa but besides different provinces, without immoderate wide trade-offs oregon upsides for them, Wesley said.

"If the premier holds a bid of referendums that extremity up saying Albertans privation this and she's not capable to present it, it lone emboldens her governmental opponents connected some sides — the federalists and the separatists," helium said.

Smith has pitched the task arsenic a mode to assistance trim separatist sentiment, but mightiness pushing these issues and accomplishing thing marque it adjacent worse?

In 2021, Kenney triggered a provincewide referendum proposing that the equalization programme beryllium removed from Canada's Constitution. Albertans endorsed the idea, but Ottawa did thing with the outcome, and the equalization look has not been altered since.

Wesley's Common Ground sentiment task surveyed Albertans and recovered a number of them really understood what the state was asking them connected that equalization vote.

"A batch of radical thought that a yes determination meant that Alberta would retreat from equalization, which is conscionable not possible," helium said.

If the state is superior astir asking Albertans what they should bash adjacent oregon request next, Wesley added, it should beryllium grounded successful a world astir what they tin oregon could reasonably expect.

The treatment materials the authorities provided to Albertans whitethorn not execute that. So however realistic volition the conclusions Albertans inject backmost into this task be?