War games in Latvia: Once unimaginable scenarios become chilling rehearsals

Murray Brewster · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 08, 2025 4:00 AM EST | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

A fewer years ago, the script which Canadian and different NATO troops rehearsed successful Latvia past week mightiness person seemed unthinkable — adjacent alarmist to the untrained eye. 

On a mud-soaked, winter-scorched grooming scope a fewer twelve kilometres extracurricular of Riga, astir 3,400 troops from 14 nations — nether the brigade enactment of a Canadian commandant — exercised however they would behaviour a last-ditch defence of the Latvian capital.

The stark script opened 30 days into a hypothetical penetration of the Baltic authorities by a belligerent neighbour with a forgettable, fake name. 

Everyone knew "the enemy" was Russia, but cipher spoke the name.

The workout unfolded successful the aforesaid week arsenic relations betwixt the United States and Ukraine were thrown into the heavy frost pursuing an ugly, televised shouting lucifer involving President Donald Trump, Vice-President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy successful the Oval Office.

The conception that Washington is moving much intimately into Moscow's orbit is being keenly felt successful Latvia. The state has witnessed Russian bases successful the Baltic — erstwhile emptied of troops and instrumentality due to the fact that of the Ukraine warfare — present being refilled and restocked.

All 3 Baltic states — Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania — person accrued the fortification of their borders with Russia. But determination is nervousness astir whether the United States would honour the beatified grail of the NATO treaty, Article 5, that stipulates an onslaught connected 1 subordinate is an onslaught connected all.

Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds told CBC News successful a recent, exclusive interrogation that his state would similar to spot much NATO troops connected the crushed and much subject instrumentality pre-positioned successful the tiny federation for the indispensable reinforcements that would beryllium brought successful during a crisis. 

"There is country and abstraction for adjacent [bigger] and stronger presence," Spruds said successful an interview, which aired Saturday connected CBC Radio's The House. 

"We indispensable retrieve that Latvian borderline is the outer borderline of the European Union and NATO. So, it is not conscionable astir protecting Latvia, protecting the region. It's astir protecting the eastbound flank, it's astir protecting the NATO and EU allies arsenic well."

The Western subject confederation has organized the defence of Latvia nether a multinational division, which includes the Canadian-led brigade. The part is led by Danish Maj.-Gen. Jette Albinus, who besides told CBC News successful a caller interrogation that a ceasefire — oregon afloat bid colony successful Ukraine — would let Russia to crook its afloat attraction to the Baltic region.

In mid-February. The Danish Institute for International Studies published a study that warned Russia is apt to proceed its subject buildup successful some the Baltic and the Arctic regions.

Albinus says Denmark's quality work has assessed that bid successful Ukraine — though invited and indispensable — would rise the menace level connected the borderline with the Baltic states.

"There is nary uncertainty .. that the menace present volition rise," Albinus said.

"It conscionable makes maine enactment up my sleeves and hole adjacent amended … you person to amusement them that you are acceptable to combat and support Latvia and the Baltics."

Moving troops successful a crisis

The question that has haunted NATO subject planners since the confederation troops were archetypal deployed successful the Baltic successful 2017, is whether the contingents could beryllium reinforced and resupplied successful a crisis.

The existent program for Latvia's defence sees Canada, Denmark and Sweden rushing further troops to the country. The question is: Can they get determination with Russian submarines successful the Baltic Sea, and possibly the airspace closed?

Albinus said she's much assured that the oversea lanes volition stay unfastened present that Sweden and Finland person joined NATO. 

There are besides large-scale plans to reenforce the Baltics via the obstruction system, different allied commanders said.

Col. Henrik Rosdahl, the commandant of the Swedish mechanized battalion which is portion of the Canadian-led brigade, said his absorption is to marque definite the troops that are already deployed are capable to clasp connected and combat backmost successful the lawsuit of an invasion.

However, helium said, Sweden — similar Canada — is successful the process of rebuilding its army.

"Am I confident? I would accidental so," Rosdahl told CBC News. "We volition person issues to bring a large unit [to Latvia] since we're gathering up our nationalist defence forces, arsenic we speak."

But helium added the question of reinforcements is thing his country's governmental and subject enactment was amended positioned to answer.

The commandant of the Canadian Army, Lt.-Gen Mike Wright, who was successful Latvia for the exercise, said helium is "content" with the level of preparations by the Canadian-led brigade and noted that the Germans person a brigade successful Lithuania and the U.K. leads a abstracted 1 successful Estonia.

"We are not alone," Wright said. "We are portion of that deterrence and corporate defence connected NATO's eastbound flank."

Last year, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) examined what a warfare successful the Baltics would look similar and however it would play retired geopolitically. 

The study concluded that Russia would astir apt beryllium capable to marque swift gains successful the Baltic region, adjacent with NATO reinforcements, and the Kremlin could wrong 3 days of opening hostilities edifice to blackmail informing "NATO that immoderate effort to reoccupy Russia's caller Baltic oblasts volition trigger a atomic response."

Given the Trump administration's threats to get Greenland "one mode oregon another" and to perchance annex Canada done economical force, the CEPA script — similar the warfare crippled successful Latvia — doesn't look precise far-fetched anymore.