Want to boost Albertans' support for leaving CPP? Ask the question differently

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

· Posted: May 17, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

It's evident that a 4th Liberal triumph has triggered a surge successful anti-Ottawa sentiment successful Alberta, but person things changed truthful overmuch that a populace agelong opposed to pulling the state retired of the Canada Pension Plan present supports it?

One speechmaking of caller polling commissioned by the Premier Danielle Smith's authorities argues arsenic much. 

A Postmedia writer got his hands connected a provincially funded survey by pollster Janet Brown's Trend Research, and utilized the results to reason that astir Albertans — 55 per cent — present backmost an APP alternatively of a CPP.

The nonfiction compared that to lone 23 per cent enactment successful a Leger canvass earlier this year, which is akin to aggregate survey findings successful 2024 and not overmuch amended than Brown herself tracked successful 2022.

One much Liberal premier curate later, and present the state is acceptable to locomotion distant from CPP?

Not truthful fast. This takes immoderate squinting.

As happens truthful often, the reply whitethorn not beryllium arsenic important arsenic the question utilized to get it.

"Different questions volition springiness you antithetic results," Brown said successful an interrogation with CBC News, aft publically releasing the full government-commissioned canvass connected her ain website, for transparency's sake.

For the past respective years, antithetic pollsters person yielded akin results by asking astir the aforesaid question of canvass respondents: "Do you judge the Alberta authorities should make a caller provincial pension program to regenerate the Canada Pension Plan for Albertans?"

The survey the Smith authorities paid for enactment it differently. It asked astir "replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta Pension Plan that guaranteed each Alberta seniors the aforesaid oregon amended benefits than the Canada Pension Plan." (italics ours)

The government's question added a perspective-shifting caveat to the elemental yes-or-no question, offering a warrant of nary fiscal hazard for pensioners — an assurance that could beryllium mostly connected however overmuch of the full CPP pastry Alberta would get arsenic its starting pot, a fig that remains successful dispute.

If supporting Alberta separatism came with guaranteeing zero economical hardship, possibly much residents would accidental they enactment it, too.

Brown noted different unsocial diagnostic of her survey, which different non-government polls haven't included: an enactment to accidental they'd ballot for, against, oregon "would request much information."

To that unusually guarantee-caveated question, 22 per cent said they needed much information; 35 said they'd ballot against, and 42 per cent were for the no-downside CPP exit. ( A idiosyncratic would person to portion retired the information-hungry from the survey to study that a bulk of Albertans backmost an APP.)

"That's truly what it was about, conscionable uncovering out: who's entrenched?" Brown said. "Who's made up their mind? And who is seeking much information?"

There were respective questions the Smith authorities commissioned on those three-option lines. To the question astir replacing the RCMP with a provincial constabulary — with a caveat that municipal constabulary forces would enactment intact — the survey recovered 30 per cent are for, 42 per cent against, and 26 per cent wanted much information.

On having the Alberta authorities cod provincial taxes alternatively of the Canada Revenue Agency, 40 per cent were for the idea, 32 per cent against, and 27 per cent wanted much accusation (though they could assertion bulk enactment among the certain).

"Taking implicit provincial migration by lone providing provincial benefits to non-citizen immigrants who fulfill Alberta's migration requirements?" (This thought has not different been publically floated by the UCP government.) It's 35 per cent yea, 25 per cent nay, and 39 per cent who request to recognize this 1 better.

As the authorities gathers nationalist sentiment probe connected these matters — and seemingly leaks retired what it wants reported to prime media — it mightiness beryllium worthy remembering that Smith has said she'll see putting immoderate issues to provincial referendum successful 2026, based connected what her upcoming "Alberta Next" consultation circuit concludes.

These questions could good beryllium the benignant of large changes successful provincial-federal roles that a premier mightiness privation to get the public's support connected earlier proceeding. After all, Smith has ever said she'd lone instrumentality Alberta retired of the CPP if it appeared determination was a fashionable mandate for it — and arsenic precocious arsenic May 1 said she sensed nary "appetite" for the idea.

No appetite, that is, unless the question assured Albertans they'd beryllium nary worse disconnected (and rather perchance amended off) nether an Alberta plan.

As astir probe experts volition assert, the sequencing oregon clustering of questions tin power however radical reply them.

Any question(s) that Smith puts to a referendum successful 2026 could beryllium posed alongside the ballot measurement she said she isn't asking for, but galore petitioners are — Alberta independence.

It's wholly imaginable that separation would conscionable go the biggest projected enactment of retrenchment from the national authorities voters are asked to consider, alongside single-aspect withdrawals from national influence, connected pensions oregon matters similar policing, migration oregon taxation collection.

Would having little drastic measures than divorcing from Canada person much entreaty than separation, oregon deter immoderate soft-separatists from that step?

It might, of course, each beryllium connected however you airs and framework the questions.