Voters in Kildonan-St. Paul's most volatile polling area offer little hint of election-day fate

Bartley Kives · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 23, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

In the Winnipeg-area riding of Kildonan-St. Paul, there's a U-shaped portion of the Riverbend neighbourhood with nary collective allegiance to immoderate of Canada's three astir fashionable governmental parties.

On predetermination time successful 2015, erstwhile Liberal MaryAnn Mihychuk won this riding, voters successful this peculiar polling country couldn't determine betwixt the Liberal victor and her Conservative opponent.

In 2019, erstwhile Conservative Raquel Dancho wrested the riding distant from Mihychuk by much than 7,000 votes overall, she lone edged retired the Liberal incumbent by 19 votes successful this polling area.

And erstwhile Dancho won the riding decisively erstwhile much successful 2021, voters successful this polling country couldn't determine betwixt the incumbent Conservative and her NDP opponent.

If determination are specified things arsenic plaything voters successful Kildonan-St. Paul, they unrecorded connected streets similar Le Peress Avenue, Endcliffe Place and Wisteria Way. True to caller form, residents of this polling country offered small successful the mode of statement arsenic they enjoyed 1 of the archetypal sunny days of spring.

"This is simply a precise hard election," said Kathie Kraychuk, who said she's worried astir Donald Trump's 51st-state speech astir Canada and plans to ballot for NDP candidate Emily Clark.

"I've ne'er voted for the different 2 parties. However, determination is 1 enactment successful peculiar that I deliberation if if they bash get in, we're successful precise superior trouble."

Kraychuk said that enactment is Dancho's Conservatives — who person Karen Makara's vote.

"They're a small spot much choky erstwhile it comes to money, but it's a bully happening due to the fact that they really ever instrumentality Canada retired of debt," she said, sipping java extracurricular her home.

Darcy Fehr, meanwhile, plans to ballot for Liberal Thomas Naaykens because helium excessively is acrophobic with the commercialized disruptions created by Trump.

"I'm much NDP usually, but I deliberation present we're conscionable successful a concern wherever we person to spell much centre and and hopefully we past each this," helium said from a passing vehicle. "It's a large hazard to our each of our livelihoods close now."

If voters successful Kildonan-St. Paul's astir undecided polling country can't constituent to an result connected predetermination time 2025, polling information offers a suggestion.

With 5 days to spell successful this campaign, CBC's Poll Tracker and 338canada.com suggest nationwide enactment for Mark Carney's Liberal Party is hovering astir 43 per cent, which is astir 4 percentage points much than it ended up being connected predetermination time successful 2015, erstwhile Liberal Mihychuk won Kildonan-St. Paul.

The Liberal pb successful polls anterior to predetermination day does not faze Conservative campaigner Dancho, who is seeking her 3rd predetermination triumph successful a riding she contends is itching to assistance her enactment signifier the adjacent government.

"What I'm proceeding astatine the door, peculiarly from young families that are moving harder than ever and struggling to get ahead. There is an overwhelming desire to spot a alteration of government," Dancho said successful an interrogation astatine her run bureau successful a North Kildonan portion mall.

Dancho said anterior to this predetermination cycle, she had ne'er heard of her Liberal hostile Naayken. He's 1 of respective governmental novices who won a Liberal Party nomination by acclamation this winter, erstwhile the polls suggested the Liberals faced electoral catastrophe nether then-leader Justin Trudeau.

Naayken, who studied accounting and served successful the Canadian subject arsenic an armour officer, said helium doesn't judge his inexperience oregon deficiency of illustration is simply a detriment successful his contention with the twice-elected Dancho.

"She does person the sanction of the incumbent, but what does that mean for the radical of our riding, right? Is she really capable to bash thing for them?" helium said successful an interrogation extracurricular Seven Oaks House successful West Kildonan.

Dancho does not conscionable person sanction designation successful her favour. New boundaries for Kildonan-St. Paul look to favour the Conservatives.

Since the 2019 election, the riding has been extended to the eastbound and present encompasses Conservative-leaning polling areas wrong the agrarian municipality of Springfield, including the Winnipeg chamber assemblage of Oakbank.

Dancho, Naaykens and the NDP's Clark are joined connected the Kildonan-St. Paul ballot by Erik Holmes of the People's Party of Canada.