Uncertainty blankets Metro Vancouver as Liberals gain traction in historically NDP, Conservative ridings

Courtney Dickson · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 25, 2025 7:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 11 minutes ago

This is portion of a bid of determination features focusing connected issues and ridings successful B.C. that could beryllium captious to the result of the national predetermination connected April 28.

Just days earlier the 2025 national election, the imaginable result successful respective Metro Vancouver ridings is unclear, adjacent successful those that are often considered definite things for each of the 3 main parties.

A mates of weeks ago, the polls were showing the imaginable that the Liberals whitethorn triumph each spot successful the Metro Vancouver area. As of April 24, the region's leaning weren't quite arsenic clear; 338.com information showed a flip up successful respective ridings. 

"The Liberals are doing a batch amended than they had successful the past fewer elections, the NDP doing a spot worse, Conservatives much oregon little connected way with wherever they were successful the past," said Éric Grenier, a canvass expert and writer with The Writ, and who is moving the CBC Poll Tracker. 

"It raises the question of however galore of those seats are going to flip."

Conservative incumbents successful ridings similar South Surrey-White Rock and Abbotsford-South Langley are facing pugnacious contention from Liberal candidates, polls show. 

Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could really suffer his spot successful Burnaby Central, which polling website 338.com has consistently shown arsenic Liberal leaning during the campaign. 

Singh himself didn't needfully look steadfast successful his quality to triumph the riding; erstwhile reporters asked him astir his chances 2 weeks ago, Singh initially dodged the question. It took a newsman asking again for him to accidental "I'm assured that I'll beryllium capable to service the radical of Burnaby Central." 

Even Vancouver East, wherever the NDP's Jenny Kwan has held the MP spot for astir 10 years, and her predecessor Libby Davies, besides of the NDP and who held it for 8 years, isn't harmless for the New Democrats this clip around; connected Thursday morning, 338 suggested the Liberals had an adjacent changeable astatine winning the seat. 

Political idiosyncratic Stewart Prest said it's notable that the Liberals would adjacent person a changeable successful that riding.

"If there's a harmless spot for the NDP successful the country, we would deliberation it would beryllium Vancouver East," helium said.

"It is an antithetic election." 

Toss up

For the intent of this story, CBC News looked astatine 23 ridings successful the Metro Vancouver area, arsenic shown below. 

As of Thursday, 10 of those ridings, situated passim the region, were considered a "toss up" by 338.com — that is, the numbers weren't beardown capable to find 1 wide victor successful those areas. 

"The Liberals, astatine 1 constituent during the run were truly acold ahead," Grenier said. "Their pb was starting to get into the five, six, seven-point scope successful B.C. Now it's much successful a 3 oregon four-point range."

Still a decent lead, but arsenic Prest pointed out, a batch tin alteration successful conscionable 1 time during an predetermination campaign, particularly erstwhile Canada's closest neighbour is threatening the country's sovereignty, placing tariffs connected Canadian goods and making decisions that perpetually interaction the planetary market. 

If U.S. President Donald Trump remains the biggest problem, Prest said, the Liberals volition apt proceed to spot occurrence successful Metro Vancouver and elsewhere. 

"But if that starts to erode oregon if determination are caller critiques of of Mr. [Mark] Carney and whether helium is truly listening to Canadians … past we mightiness spot that [support for the Liberals] eroded."

Ross Michael Pink, a governmental subject teacher astatine Kwantlen Polytechnic University, said that portion the polls whitethorn beryllium showing immoderate grade of uncertainty, the Greater Vancouver Area has historically voted "Liberal left."

"I deliberation it's somewhat predictable," helium said, referring to the portion showing much enactment for the national Liberal Party. 

Strategic voting

In each election, Prest said, there's an constituent of strategical voting — immoderate radical don't needfully ballot for the enactment they're astir aligned with, but 1 that volition sound down a enactment that they truly don't privation successful power. 

"This is strategical voting connected steroids," Prest said of what polls are showing this year. 

He said this happened successful 2015, erstwhile Canadians who had grown bushed of then-prime curate Stephen Harper were choosing betwixt the Liberal Party's Justin Trudeau and erstwhile NDP person Tom Mulcair.

"We're seeing that, but adjacent much magnified, wherever the ballot for the NDP truly is collapsing astatine this point, immoderate polls having them successful azygous digits," Prest said.

"This is intelligibly a improvement of strategical voting driven by Mr. Trump and efficaciously his ability, his superpower really, to marque everything astir him and the predetermination present successful Canada is simply a portion of that."

It's each astir strategy for the parties, excessively — Grenier said that's what Carney's travel to B.C.'s South Coast this week was each about. With each these flip ups, the enactment is looking to solidify their chances successful the region. 

"They're playing a small spot of offence and defence, trying to spell aft immoderate of those NDP seats and besides trying to enactment up their seats southbound of the Fraser River," helium said.

Vancouver could find minority, majority: Grenier

Federal elections tin beryllium frustrating for occidental provinces whose voters whitethorn inactive beryllium lasting successful enactment astatine the polls portion ballots are being counted retired eastbound — and the predetermination is called earlier they get home. 

But Grenier said existent polls suggest B.C. could play an important relation successful the result of this election. 

"If we bash spot successful the coming days that the margins proceed to get a small spot tighter betwixt the Liberals and the Conservatives, we could beryllium successful a spot wherever the other 10 seats that the Liberals mightiness beryllium capable to prime up successful B.C. could marque the difference," helium said. 

No substance who Metro Vancouver voters are supporting, Pink implores radical to vote. 

"There are ridings historically successful Canada and America and different countries that person been decided by little than 10 votes, truthful it's precise important," helium said. 

"Your ballot matters. Everybody matters."