U.S. relationship likely top of mind for voters this federal election, poll analyst says

Hannah Rudderham · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 24, 2025 9:37 AM EDT | Last Updated: 4 minutes ago

Liberals and Conservatives are moving neck-in-neck to triumph the national predetermination April 28, says a canvass analyst, who has identified 3 perchance adjacent races successful New Brunswick. 

Éric Grenier, who covers Canadian elections, authorities and polls connected TheWrit.ca, pointed to Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton-Oromocto and Saint John-Kennebecasis arsenic ridings wherever the run could beryllium tight.

And portion lodging and wellness attraction are inactive important to voters, Grenier believes those issues could beryllium overshadowed by the apt large contented of the run — the tariff threats and threats connected Canadian sovereignty by U.S. President Donald Trump.

With New Brunswick bordering the authorities of Maine, Grenier said helium thinks that volition enactment this contented apical of caput for the province's voters.

According to the CBC Poll Tracker, the polls suggest a important pb successful Atlantic Canada for the Liberals, astatine astir 50 per cent. 

As of Sunday, erstwhile the predetermination was called, the CBC Poll Tracker suggested a constrictive pb nationally for the Liberals, with enactment from 37.5 per cent of those polled, implicit the Conservatives, with astir 37.1 per cent.

"As we've seen successful past elections, the 2 astir caller ones for example, the votes and the seats don't ever enactment up,"  Grenier said successful an interrogation with CBC News connected Monday.

"So contempt the information that we are looking astatine this beauteous overmuch tied contention crossed the country, the Liberals are inactive the favourites to triumph the astir seats."

The CBC Poll Tracker includes each canvass that is being published close now, Grenier said. The tracker is an accumulation of each polls, including those from pollsters, specified arsenic Abacus, Leger and Ipsos, among others.

The displacement successful the polls since Justin Trudeau's resignatio as prime curate has been remarkable, Grenier said, and astir apt 1 of the biggest shifts successful Canadian history. 

"We're looking astatine this tremendous plaything that has transformed the scenery from an inevitable Pierre Poilievre Conservative large bulk authorities to now, what is fundamentally a toss-up race, wherever it's truly either Mark Carney oregon Pierre Poilievre's predetermination to lose," helium said.

"It's conscionable an unthinkable magnitude of alteration that we conscionable usually bash not spot successful Canadian politics."

Local candidates whitethorn substance successful adjacent N.B. ridings

Grenier said it's hard to foretell wherever things volition basal successful the adjacent 5 weeks, but if the predetermination were held today, his idiosyncratic projection would grant the Liberals six seats successful New Brunswick and the Conservatives 4 — the aforesaid result arsenic the past election. 

Nationally, Grenier said, voter perceptions of the parties and enactment leaders are the astir important factors successful the result of elections, and the value of section candidates volition disagree from riding to riding. 

While the sanction connected the ballot whitethorn not beryllium a decisive factor, it could marque the quality successful peculiarly adjacent ridings. 

"I deliberation that is each the much the lawsuit successful New Brunswick and different areas of Atlantic Canada, wherever the attachment to that section campaigner usually and traditionally has been a batch stronger than we spot successful different parts of Canada," said Grenier.