Trump tariffs could throw off Ford's path to balanced Ontario budget

Shawn Jeffords · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 27, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 12 minutes ago

U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic commercialized warfare volition loom ample implicit Doug Ford's provincial budget, with experts saying billions successful fiscal assistance to impacted workers and businesses volition propulsion a wrench successful the premier's program to equilibrium Ontario's books adjacent year.

Next month, Ford's Progressive Conservatives are expected to unveil their archetypal fund since winning a third-straight bulk authorities successful February. The spending program could beryllium announced successful the days aft Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is scheduled to present a cardinal code to a concern assemblage successful Toronto connected May 12.

But the spending program volition driblet astatine a clip of uncertainty, arsenic the interaction of Trump's tariffs connected the car and alloy sectors continues to deepen. This week, Ford himself conceded that his authorities has to value its priorities cautiously successful this moment, hinting that balancing the books whitethorn not happen.

"There's a clip to marque definite that we equilibrium and there's times that we spot that determination mightiness beryllium a fewer cardinal dollars much to support communities," helium said.

As precocious arsenic past fall, the Ford authorities said it would equilibrium Ontario's books by the 2026-2027 fiscal year. It had projected a $1.5 cardinal shortage successful this outpouring budget, followed by a surplus of conscionable nether a cardinal dollars the pursuing year.

But those figures were portion of authorities calculations earlier Trump imposed tariffs connected Canada, resulting successful layoffs astatine location and heightening fears of a recession. During the drawback provincial election, Ford promised tens of billions successful fiscal assistance and stimulus for affected workers and businesses. 

Conservative strategist Laryssa Waler said she expects a absorption connected further tariff response, but balancing the fund adjacent twelvemonth is unlikely.

"I would look for rather a spot of spending, particularly successful the look of tariffs," she said. "I deliberation that it's a tenable anticipation to reason that a way to equilibrium mightiness beryllium impacted by other spending that needs to hap due to the fact that of the tariff war."

WATCH | Ontario tables measure to trim barriers to interior trade, labour mobility:

Pandemic spending could beryllium akin to tariff response, strategist says

Waler, who is laminitis of Hensley Strategies and a erstwhile Ford staffer, said Ontario's attack to pandemic spending is apt the closest comparator to the strategy for this budget.

"You'll spot the Ontario authorities astir script plan," she said, calling for antithetic degrees of effect depending connected the tariff impacts. 

The authorities precocious announced $11 cardinal successful taxation deferrals and enactment to assistance businesses affected by tariffs. Liberal strategist Charles Bird said helium expects Ford's plans to equilibrium the books adjacent twelvemonth are retired the window. 

And successful airy of Trump's tariffs, helium doesn't deliberation the premier volition wage a governmental price.

"People bash not springiness a hoot astir deficits astatine the moment," helium said. "I deliberation they recognize that this is not the clip for extremist cuts to authorities spending."

Bird, who is simply a main astatine Earnscliffe Strategies, anticipates the authorities volition acceptable circumstantial reserve funds speech arsenic imaginable tariff contingencies, alternatively of rushing targeted spending retired the door.

"There volition beryllium immoderate tendency to support immoderate information of reserves disposable should further imposition of tariffs … beryllium truly detrimental to our economical interests," helium said. 

Trade warfare could person semipermanent consequences for Ontario's books: prof

The existent effect of a prolonged commercialized warfare with the U.S. may not beryllium felt until adjacent year's budget, said Trent University governmental subject prof Cristine de Clercy. The request for spending constraints to support Ontario's recognition standing successful check and billions successful borrowing costs down could pb to hard choices for the authorities astatine that point, she said.

"I person a hard clip seeing thing but a precise austere fiscal aboriginal for america present successful Ontario," she said.

Ford's authorities swept to powerfulness successful 2018, promising to bring fiscal subject to the province's books and equilibrium the budget. But astatine this point, the Tories person not presented a balanced spending plan. 

However, the Ford authorities did execute equilibrium successful the 2021-2022 fiscal year, reporting a $2.1 cardinal surplus due to the fact that of higher than expected revenues. The authorities had initially projected a $13.5 cardinal shortage for that year.

Former Liberal furniture curate John Milloy said helium expects enactment for workers and businesses successful the budget. But the authorities volition request to look for offsets successful different places to money them due to the fact that moving ample deficits year-over-year becomes a occupation implicit the long-term, helium said.

"That wealth is going to person to travel from somewhere, and it's going to person to travel from saying no to immoderate different priorities," said Milloy, who is present the manager of the Centre for Public Ethics astatine Martin Luther University College.

Milloy said helium wouldn't advocator for "an implicit zero" attack to moving a shortage successful this budget, but taking a hard look astatine things similar wellness attraction and acquisition backing mightiness beryllium indispensable successful the coming years.

"I cognize that's thing that nary 1 likes to speech about, but wellness attraction cannot proceed to turn astatine the complaint it's growing," helium said.