This election, the NDP could be fighting for its own survival

In a "get acceptable with me" video posted this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh twists his agelong hairsbreadth nether his turban and talks astir his beingness earlier politics.

"I went retired and got 3 minimum-wage jobs … to enactment nutrient connected the table," helium says to the camera. 

The TikTok video is akin to the mode helium introduced himself to Canadians successful his archetypal predetermination arsenic person successful 2019. Now he's entering his 3rd campaign.

"I struggled hard … I'm going to combat for you," helium says.

The NDP — and its leader — could beryllium successful 1 of their toughest battles yet. 

Recent polling suggests the New Democrats' popularity has fallen to its lowest level in decades, according to Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, which aggregates nationalist sentiment polling.

"The NDP enactment has conscionable tanked implicit the past fewer weeks, and they are successful superior trouble," Grenier said.

His information suggests the NDP's enactment is present nether 12 per cent and that the NDP could suffer astir three-quarters of its 24 seats successful the House of Commons. Singh's ain riding — and the party's authoritative presumption — are at risk.

"You astir apt person to spell backmost to the 1990s to find the NDP polling truthful poorly," Grenier said.

"If the NDP continues to canvass astatine this level for a steady, accordant magnitude of time, the NDP could beryllium connected way for 1 of its worst results successful astatine slightest 30 years."

WATCH | Singh asked astir the aboriginal of the NDP: 

Singh was asked astir his party's fortunes connected Thursday successful Hamilton.

"This is simply a precise important election, and I cognize that Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre would privation thing amended than for the NDP to disappear," Singh said.

"We're not going anywhere."

Shaking Justin Trudeau

New Liberal Leader Mark Carney is apt portion of the crushed for the NDP's caller slide, Grenier said. 

"To spot however rapidly the NDP ballot tanked with the alteration of [Liberal] enactment suggests that a batch of those voters were parking their ballot with the NDP. But arsenic soon arsenic different alternate popped up, they were acceptable to wantonness the party," helium said.

And portion the Liberals person done distant with Justin Trudeau, it's not wide that Singh has done distant with his ain relation with the erstwhile premier minister.

Through a supply-and-confidence agreement, the NDP kept the Liberal number afloat for much than 2 years by agreeing to ballot with them connected cardinal legislation.

In return, the Liberals agreed to enactment large societal programs similar dental and pharmacare. The New Democrats regularly constituent to these arsenic important argumentation wins for a enactment with lone 24 MPs.

But that mightiness not beryllium resonating with Canadians. On Vancouver Island, wherever New Democrats clasp the bulk of the seats, immoderate voters accidental their message isn't landing. 

"I person implicit the years voted NDP, but I'm going to ballot Liberal due to the fact that I truly deliberation that they request each vote," said Robyn Austin. 

"The national NDP has done immoderate bully work, but its messaging and branding person not been connected point," said Farrell Gilmour, who is leaning toward voting NDP. "They haven't been capable to truly instrumentality recognition for immoderate of the wins."

Nawal Lasfar says she is voting Conservative.

"They kept the Liberal Party successful power. And for that reason, I would not ballot for them," Lasfar said.

Levelling the playing field

Jennifer Howard, the New Democrats' nationalist run director, said the predetermination volition springiness the enactment different accidental to get its connection retired to voters.

Once the run begins, governmental parties person spending limits for advertising — and the enactment says its warfare thorax is ample capable to conscionable those limits. 

"We volition beryllium connected the aforesaid level playing crushed arsenic the different parties," she said.

In 2024, the NDP raised $6.2 million, little than fractional the Liberals' full and dwarfed by the $41.7 cardinal the Conservatives raised.

But Howard and others wrong the enactment person been keen to constituent retired that the NDP is going into this predetermination successful the champion fiscal signifier since Singh became leader. 

They're acceptable to spend up to $34 cardinal — immoderate of it borrowed.

"It has been a precise volatile time, I think, for everyone who has been watching the polls. We're not successful the aforesaid spot we were months ago," Howard said. 

"That besides tells maine that things tin alteration rapidly … we're going to spot immoderate much alteration earlier the particulate settles."

Trump arsenic the ballot container question

That volatility — mostly coming from the U.S. president — means halfway NDP run issues, similar affordability and housing, mightiness nary longer beryllium astatine the apical of voters' minds.

Former NDP run manager Brad Lavigne said the enactment indispensable devise a program to "meet the moment" to respond to President Donald Trump's threats to Canada's system and sovereignty.

"The ballot question for this national predetermination volition beryllium who is champion successful the premier minister's seat and the national authorities to tackle Donald Trump and the tariffs," Lavigne said.

As Carney moves the Liberal Party's policies to the close of Trudeau, determination could beryllium an accidental for Singh to prime up enactment from progressive voters, Lavigne said.

"We'll spot successful the coming days, arsenic this predetermination unfolds, whether oregon not helium tin prehend it."

'Fight similar his aboriginal enactment is connected the line'

This volition apt beryllium a defining predetermination for Singh.

When helium became person successful 2017, Lavigne said determination was anticipation Singh could interruption into untapped voters, peculiarly with the younger and suburban electorate astir large municipality centres. 

But the NDP has lost 20 seats successful the House of Commons since then, and implicit 400,000 fewer Canadians voted for them successful 2021 than successful 2015 nether erstwhile person Tom Mulcair.

"I would suggest that unless Mr. Singh could crook this around, New Democrats are going to person a batch of hard questions pursuing this predetermination campaign," Lavigne said. 

"Mr. Singh needs to combat similar his aboriginal enactment is connected the line."

Asked Thursday astir whether he'll measurement down if he's incapable to amended the NDP's results this time, Singh said, "Right now, we're focused connected the predetermination successful beforehand of us."

As for the party's future, outgoing and longtime New Democrat MP Charlie Angus said the NDP has started campaigns wherever they person been written disconnected before.

"The archetypal clip I ran, I was considered a gag campaigner due to the fact that I was this punk stone kid moving successful a Liberal bastion. And I've held that riding ever since," said Angus.

"So we're ever the underdog. That's okay. We're utilized to that."