The trade war is here. You'll notice it at the grocery store first

Mark Gollom · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 05, 2025 4:00 AM EST | Last Updated: March 5

Canadians' pocketbooks volition apt beryllium the unfortunate of a prolonged commercialized warfare with the U.S., with the prices connected user goods perchance rising implicit the adjacent weeks, some analysts say.

"We volition spot prices crossed the committee going up," said Andreas Schotter, a prof of concern astatine Western University successful London, Ont.

"I could ideate that connected definite products you volition spot implicit the adjacent fewer weeks, oregon adjacent close now, an increase successful prices."

Food prices whitethorn beryllium the archetypal to instrumentality a deed due to the fact that such items are perishable and tin lone beryllium stored for a comparatively abbreviated play of time, says Adelphe Ekponon, adjunct prof of concern astatine the University of Ottawa.

Still, helium said, yet "everything volition beryllium impacted."

Smaller enactment of goods

U.S. President Donald Trump followed done connected his long-threatened tariffs connected Tuesday, imposed 25 per cent levies connected Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10 per cent on Canadian energy. Trump besides doubled past month's tariff helium slapped connected Chinese products to 20 per cent.

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In retaliation, Canada slapped 25 per cent tariffs connected $30 cardinal worthy of U.S. goods. Those tariffs volition beryllium applied to different $125 cardinal worthy of imports aft a three-week consultation period. 

Tu Nguyen, an economist astatine RSM Canada, said successful a connection past period that for Canadian households, a commercialized war "means an summation successful prices of aggregate user goods, including groceries, appliances and particularly vehicles." 

She says Canadians should besides expect a smaller enactment of goods arsenic the importing of U.S. products slows down.

Some of the goods being targeted by Canada see nutrient and dairy products, fruits and vegetables, integrative gathering materials, assorted covering items, lumber and different wood products, and room appliances.

Just however overmuch specified prices volition summation is hard to say and depends on however the costs are absorbed, which could see lowering accumulation costs, reducing employment, oregon companies cutting their nett share, Ekponon says.

But the commercialized warfare could origin wide ostentation to emergence from betwixt 0.5 to 1 per cent, "which is huge," helium said.

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Along with prices rising successful supermarkets, besides expect terms increases in electronics, computers and different user products that either ship through oregon come from the U.S., Schotter says.

He said radical tin expect immoderate retail businesses to commencement adjusting pricing — perchance adjacent lowering them. 

"There mightiness beryllium an contiguous propulsion of immoderate businesses to adjacent connection immoderate discounts of existing stock."

But erstwhile that banal starts to tally out, helium says, expect prices to rise.

The terms of liquor from the U.S. volition besides spell up, truthful helium warned that radical tin expect to spot restaurants and bars expanding their prices.

"Which is unluckily besides detrimental," helium said. 

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As for the car industry, expect terms hikes connected caller vehicles. 

Peter Morrow, subordinate professor of economics astatine the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, says that sector, with its integrated proviso chain, will beryllium the "poster child" for however tariffs impact items that spell backmost and distant betwixt some countries.

For example, brake pads that are produced in Canada and shipped to the U.S. to beryllium enactment into an car there, would look a 25 per cent tariff, Morrow says.

When that car re-enters Canada — if determination are retaliatory tariffs connected autos — that tariff would use to the full worth of the car, inclusive of the brake pads, helium said.

So determination would beryllium immoderate "double-counting," helium said. "Every clip a good crosses the borderline it's going to beryllium deed with a tariff."

Meanwhile, the speech complaint whitethorn besides beryllium a important origin connected prices, analysts say.

"What we besides spot is not conscionable the tariff, it's besides the currency. Our dollar is dropping similar a stone close now," Schotter said.

Morrow says that erstwhile radical halt wanting to clasp Canadian dollars, that means the Canadian dollar loses value. 

"And fundamentally thing that you import is going to go much costly careless of if there's a tariff oregon not."

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