The time when foreign invasions were impossible is over, former diplomats tell defence conference

Murray Brewster · CBC News

· Posted: May 30, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

At the onset of the First World War, Britain's veritable overseas secretary, Sir Edward Grey, remarked that the lamps were going retired each implicit Europe and "we shall not spot them lit again successful our lifetime."

The metaphor has agelong been considered arsenic the unofficial epitaph to what astatine the clip was the longest tally of bid and prosperity connected the continent.

The retelling of that communicative has go commonplace since the penetration of Ukraine.

It was hard not to deliberation of it this week erstwhile listening to some a erstwhile NATO caput wide and the antheral who was Lithuania's overseas curate arsenic they each delivered stark assessments of wherever the satellite is going and however it got here.

Neither Lord George Robertson, who led the Western subject confederation from 1999 to 2003, nor Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Baltic nation's apical diplomat for years, argued that we're connected the cusp of war.

Rather, they some called for clear-eyed deterrence arsenic they delivered separate, sobering messages astatine the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries yearly gathering of defence contractors successful Ottawa, known arsenic CANSEC.

Even still.

The post-Cold War epoch wherever nations didn't person to interest astir their sovereignty and territorial defence is over, Robertson told the conference.

"That satellite has evaporated, and it volition not instrumentality adjacent successful our children's lifetime," helium said.

NATO's Article 5 — the pledge of corporate defence and that an onslaught connected 1 was an onslaught connected each — gets each of the attention, Robertson said. But helium argued that the 3rd nonfiction of the Washington Treaty, which established NATO successful 1949, volition get much and much attraction successful the coming months and years.

That clause says members indispensable person the idiosyncratic and corporate capableness to defy an equipped attack. 

"In different words, determination is an work to support your ain homeland, an work that was, excessively often successful the past, overlooked arsenic we've looked astatine the [terrorist] force abroad," Robertson said.

"There's nary longer country for concern arsenic usual."

It's been that mode for much than a decade, helium said, pursuing the Russian annexation of Crimea. 

"As we spot each time successful the eastbound of Ukraine, the menace of bare aggression and wonton unit successful the Euro Atlantic portion — it's nary longer theoretical, nary longer conscionable a distant possibility," Robertson said. 

"It's real. It's brutal and it's very, precise adjacent to us."

The situation contiguous for nations, including Canada, is to halt believing that immoderate things, specified arsenic invasions, are impossible. 

"We request to beryllium alert and wide awake," said Robertson, who admitted successful a aboriginal interrogation to being frustrated with Canada's anemic grounds of defence spending. But helium added he's encouraged to spot promises to bash much from Prime Minister Mark Carney's government. 

Canada is hoping to soon motion connected to a large $1.25-trillion European Union defence-industrial program known arsenic ReArm Europe. 

Landsbergis was intensely captious of European leaders, who helium says person been hitting the snooze fastener connected defence since the 2008 Russian penetration of neighbouring Georgia.

His absorption to the ReArm Europe program could beryllium summed up successful 2 words: astir time.

"We're yet starting to spot our leaders speech astir superior money," Landsbergis said. "The European ReArm program mightiness beryllium the archetypal measurement successful the close direction."

Landsbergis said Europe simply allowed the situation to physique pursuing Russia's annexation of Crimea, alternatively than taking decisive action. It has been, helium said, a wasted decade.

"During that time, Europeans said each the close things, but unluckily precise small preparation," Landsbergis said.

"After the 2022 [Ukraine] invasion, determination was anticipation that the concern would alteration dramatically and European factories would commencement rolling retired tanks, howitzers and ammunition. This happened, but not to the grade that 1 would person hoped."

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NATO does its champion to enactment things successful context, saying implicit the past decade, European allies and Canada person steadily accrued their corporate concern successful defence — from 1.43 per cent of their combined gross home merchandise successful 2014, to 2.02 per cent successful 2024. (Canada presently sits astatine 1.37 percent of GDP) The summation represents $485 cardinal US successful defence, the confederation says.

Landsbergis's criticism, however, was not restricted to the governmental establishment. He said defence contractors and the firm satellite person been arsenic stuck connected the conception of concern arsenic usual.

"Every speech I had with defence manufacture representatives during the years of warfare would extremity with a phrase: 'I'm not gathering thing until you amusement maine the money,'" helium said.

"And that was the crux of the problem. Europe would speech bully but walk small and concern leaders, Putin oregon anyone who's bully astatine mathematics would spot close done it."

The deficiency of urgency, Landsbergis said, was evident successful Ukraine's life-and-death combat to clasp the enactment from the advancing Russian army. 

As a Lithuanian who understands beingness nether Russian occupation, the arming of Ukraine successful fits and starts was achy to watch, helium said. 

"Whenever different babe measurement is taken, I indispensable amusement gratitude and susurration to myself, 'Better precocious than never,'" Landsbergis said. 

"When different limb strategy is donated precocious with insufficient ammo and with orders not to usage it against Russia excessively much, I indispensable person whispered to myself, 'That is enough.'"