'Surprisingly large minority' of Manitobans support Prairie separatism, poll suggests

Ozten Shebahkeget · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 30, 2025 3:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

Sentiments of Prairie separatism exist in parts of Manitoba, a caller canvass suggests, with supporters much apt to beryllium national and provincial Conservative voters who unrecorded successful agrarian areas.

A Probe Research canvass of Manitoba elector intentions, conducted connected behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press betwixt May 28 and June 10, suggested a bulk of Manitobans — 7 successful 10 — would ballot to enactment successful Canada alternatively than separate.

That includes six successful 10 respondents who would ballot for Manitoba to decidedly enactment portion of Canada.

"I cognize it's a majority, but that's a anemic majority, particularly aft this infinitesimal that we've had wherever we've banded unneurotic and felt arrogant of our country," said Mary Agnes Welch, a spouse with Probe Research.

"The happening I interest astir is that sentiment has present dissipated. It didn't person immoderate staying power, and truly our consciousness of attachment to our state is, there's benignant of an undercurrent of it being beauteous weak."

A "surprisingly ample minority" of much than 1 successful 5 Manitobans would ballot for the state to permission Canada, according to Probe Research.

Those who supported Manitoba separatism successful the canvass are concentrated successful agrarian parts of the province, and are among right-of-centre voters, Probe Research says. It recovered 56 per cent of national Conservative voters, and 52 per cent of provincial Progressive Conservative voters, would enactment separatism.

"It's a overmuch bigger fig than I deliberation we were expecting," said Welch.

"This is emblematic of however unopen retired of mainstream sermon that cohort of folks feel."

Support for occidental separatism appears to beryllium overmuch stronger successful Alberta and Saskatchewan than successful Manitoba, Welch said, but that doesn't permission the keystone state retired of the woods.

"It's 1 happening for Alberta to consciousness this way, [but] Manitoba is the centre," she said. "We are truthful centrist. We person each sentiment successful Canada here."

Talks of the occidental provinces separating from Canada grew pursuing the triumph of the Liberals and Mark Carney successful April. Alberta premier Danielle Smith introduced authorities to marque it easier to trigger a referendum. 

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and his calls to marque Canada the 51st authorities sparked treatment crossed the state astir the nation's request for independence.

Darwin Driedger, who lives successful McGregor, Man., says helium would ballot to permission Canada and articulation with different occidental provinces. 

"Western Canada is bulk bluish collar — that is what drives our economy: oil, gas, farming, right? And eastbound Canada takes vantage of that," helium told CBC News connected Monday.

But Joelle Wytinck, who's from Cypress River, Man., says she doesn't spot a request to separate.

"I deliberation we request to instrumentality together, and spot is successful numbers," she said.

Seven per cent of those who responded to the canvass were undecided.

The Probe illustration of 1,000 Manitoba adults has an mistake borderline of 3.1 per cent and a reliability of 95 per cent.

Separatist speech makes Canada weaker: canvass respondents

The canvass besides suggests Manitobans' consciousness of pridefulness successful Canada is beardown but declining. Sixty per cent said they felt much arrogant to beryllium Canadian than they did past twelvemonth — a alteration from March, erstwhile 77 per cent said they were much proud.

A immense bulk of canvass respondents hold that speech astir the state separating from Canada makes the state weaker, but the canvass recovered a ample fig of respondents hold that determination are valid grievances against the national government.

The canvass besides recovered much than 8 successful 10 respondents deliberation that separatism discussions coming from Alberta marque Canada weaker successful the look of U.S. tariffs and President Donald Trump's tendency to marque the state the 51st state.

While Alberta's separatism question is simply a widely-shared interest among those who responded to the poll, it recovered that implicit six successful 10 respondents did not instrumentality those discussions seriously.

Meanwhile, much than six successful 10 canvass respondents agreed that radical successful occidental Canada person a morganatic crushed to beryllium aggravated with the national government.

"Manitobans are split, however, connected whether having a national Liberal authorities is atrocious for occidental Canada, with astir one-half agreeing with this sentiment and somewhat much than one-half disagreeing," the Probe study said.

Welch says astir two-thirds of Manitobans who responded to the canvass deliberation that occidental Canada "gets the shaft" from Ottawa.

"Even those who don't privation to abstracted deliberation that there's this benignant of imbalance erstwhile it comes to being a occidental Canadian," she said.

"So I deliberation that's portion of it, I deliberation anger, and benignant of frustration, with the Carney government."