Sizing up Canada's Stanley Cup contenders

Jesse Campigotto · CBC Sports

· Posted: Feb 25, 2025 4:20 PM EST | Last Updated: February 25

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Connor McDavid's overtime extremity to bushed the United States successful the 4 Nations Face-Off last past week was the champion Canadian men's hockey infinitesimal of the past 15 years. Could Canada's archetypal Stanley Cup parade since 1993 beryllium next?

The chances aren't terrible, with 3 Canadian-based NHL teams presently ranked successful the apical 7 overall, 2 much holding a playoff spot and different precise overmuch successful the hunt for the post-season. One betting tract has the implied probability of a Canadian squad winning the Cup astatine astir 29 per cent, portion the 7 clubs' rubric likelihood connected the hockey-stats website Money Puck add up to astir 25 per cent.

Here's a speedy check-in connected the 7 Canadian teams arsenic they participate the last ~25 games of the regular season.

The large 3

Leading the mode is Winnipeg, which won its league-high 10th consecutive game last nighttime to reclaim archetypal spot wide from the Washington Capitals. Mark Scheifele's overtime goal — his 329th for Winnipeg, breaking Ilya Kovalchuk's Thrashers/Jets franchise record — gave him 32 connected the season, which ranks 3rd successful the NHL. Kyle Connor is sixth successful goals with 30 and tied for 5th successful points with 71. Along with the league's champion record, the Jets (41-14-3) ain the apical power-play occurrence complaint (32.5 per cent) and extremity differential (plus-70).

Winnipeg besides has the NHL's champion goalie. Connor Hellebuyck leads the league successful each the large accepted stats — wins (35), goals-against mean (2.04), prevention percent (.925) and shutouts (6) — arsenic good arsenic the precocious Goals Saved Above Expected. He's a virtual fastener to triumph his 2nd consecutive Vezina Trophy and 3rd of his career, which would beryllium a grounds for a U.S.-born player, and Hellebuyck mightiness adjacent beryllium successful the MVP speech too.

Toronto (35-20-2) sits 5th overall, holding a one-point borderline successful the Atlantic Division implicit the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, who volition beryllium without prima guardant Matthew Tkachuk for a portion owed to the groin wounded that forced the American to ticker astir of the 4 Nations last from the bench.

While reigning NHL goals champ Auston Matthews inactive seems bothered by the upper-body wounded that has caused him to miss 15 games this season, William Nylander has helped capable the void with 33 goals — second-most successful the league. Mitch Marner has besides stepped up. The pending free-agent winger is tied with the Jets' Connor for 5th successful the league with 71 points, putting him connected gait for his archetypal 100-point season. Marner was fantastic successful the 4 Nations last too, mounting up Sam Bennett's game-tying extremity and McDavid's OT winner.

WATCH | Canada celebrates its 4 Nations Face-Off victory:

Of course, the Leafs are celebrated for looking bully successful the regular play and past flopping successful the playoffs. But there's anticipation for a antithetic result this twelvemonth arsenic caller caput manager Craig Berube has shored up the team's antiaircraft play portion Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz proviso coagulated goaltending for a change.

Edmonton (34-19-4) ranks 7 overall, acknowledgment mostly to the efforts of (this volition daze you) McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The second is moving distant with the Rocket Richard Trophy with 42 goals — 9 much than the second-place Nylander — and his 86 points enactment Draisaitl conscionable 1 down Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead. Despite missing a full of six games owed to an early-season ankle wounded and a suspension, McDavid ranks 4th with 72 points, including 22 goals.

However, if the defending Western Conference champs are going to drawback Vegas for the Pacific Division pb (the Golden Knights are up 2 points), they mightiness request much from inconsistent goalie Stuart Skinner and talented defenceman Evan Bouchard, whose scoring numbers are down portion his antiaircraft play remains shaky.

The different 4

In galore ways, Vancouver is going done the play from hell. A feud betwixt its 2 champion forwards, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, dogged the squad until Miller was traded to the Rangers a period ago. But the alteration hasn't helped the struggling Pettersson, who has zero goals and lone 2 assists successful six games since the deal. Pettersson went pointless successful 3 games for Sweden astatine the 4 Nations, and it's present been implicit a period since his past goal. "He's not moving his feet," manager Rick Tocchet said aft Sunday's nonaccomplishment to Utah.

Meanwhile, Norris Trophy victor Quinn Hughes has missed the past six games with the unspecified wounded that kept him retired of the 4 Nations, and goalie Thatcher Demko is wounded again aft missing the archetypal 2 months of the play with the antithetic genu wounded that knocked him retired of past year's playoffs.

The Flames missed the playoffs by 17 points past season, past intelligibly signalled they were successful rebuilding mode by trading No. 1 goalie Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey. But that proved to beryllium a savvy determination arsenic young Dustin Wolf, the MVP of the American Hockey League 2 years ago, sports a 20-11-3 grounds and a .913 prevention percentage.

Ottawa gets afloat marks for resiliency too. The Senators finished 26th wide past year, and they're large off-season acquisition, goalie Linus Ullmark, missed each of January with an injury. But young guardant Tim Stutzle is backmost to averaging much than a constituent per game, and Ottawa (29-24-4) is clinging to the last wild-card spot successful the East, conscionable up of Columbus, Boston and the Rangers.

One country of interest for the Sens: guardant Brady Tkachuk near aboriginal from today's signifier owed to the wounded that bothered him astatine the 4 Nations. He said helium mightiness beryllium retired Wednesday's crippled against Winnipeg truthful helium tin travel backmost full-steam and "be an carnal the adjacent 25 games."

At the moment, Montreal (26-26-5) is the lone Canadian squad we tin astir apt regularisation retired of the playoff race. The Habs are 5 points retired of a spot successful the East, which whitethorn not dependable similar a lot. But they've mislaid 8 of their past 10 and determination are 4 teams betwixt them and Ottawa. That leaves the Habs with little than a 5 per cent accidental of making the playoffs, according to Money Puck.