Sask. has been a sea of blue in recent federal elections. Here's why it's worth watching this time around

Alexander Quon · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 24, 2025 7:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

Saskatchewan has been astir wholly bluish successful national politics since the Conservative Party of Canada archetypal ran a slate of candidates successful the province in 2004.

While the Liberals and the NDP have picked up occasional seats, Saskatchewan's 14 national ridings remain a stronghold for the Conservatives.

With a national predetermination looming, CBC News approached experts to get their views connected the authorities of the contention successful the province.

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'The astir blimpish province'

There are 14 national districts in Saskatchewan. The Conservatives person controlled each of them since 2019.

Daniel Westlake, an adjunct prof of governmental studies astatine the University of Saskatchewan, said that is improbable to alteration this election. 

"My presumption is Saskatchewan is probably the astir blimpish province in the country, much truthful than Alberta," Westlake said. 

Jim Farney, manager of the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, agreed.

"Fundamentally, we look similar a bluish province," Farney said.

Farney said that astatine the moment, Saskatchewan is apt much supportive of the Conservatives than it is of the province's governing Saskatchewan Party. 

Westlake said Saskatchewan is simply a precise agrarian province, and an expanding urban-rural disagreement volition make it hard for the Liberals oregon the NDP to secure enough votes. 

While Alberta may view itself as a steadfast Conservative province, determination are pockets of Calgary and Edmonton that are hospitable to the Liberals oregon the NDP, Westlake said.

"It is not wide that those aforesaid pockets beryllium successful Saskatchewan," Westlake said.

Boundary changes enactment astatine slightest 1 riding successful play

The electoral boundaries of each 14 Saskatchewan ridings changed arsenic portion of the 2022 electoral redistribution process.

The experts CBC spoke with said the changes will apt person small effect on the outcomes — except successful 1 place. 

All 3 hold the riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is present successful play for the Liberals and NDP. 

"With Meadow Lake being detached and added to the aged Battlefords–Lloydminster riding, a important chunk of the Conservative ballot has gone with it," said Eric Grenier, a polls expert and the creator of thewrit.ca. "Enough of it to marque the riding precise hard for the Conservatives."

WATCH| Carney says modulation to powerfulness volition beryllium seamless and quick: 

Westlake said helium looked astatine the information from past elections, and if the existent boundaries had been utilized successful 2019 oregon 2021 the riding "would person voted NDP successful 2019 and Liberal successful 2021."

"That riding gets truly interesting," Westlake said.

While the Saskatchewan NDP astir swept each of the seats successful the province's cities in the 2024 provincial election, the experts accidental we're improbable to spot thing akin astatine the national level.

"Provincial and national elections hap successful their ain chiseled environments," Westlake said.

Ballot container questions person changed 

Farney and Westlake told CBC News successful abstracted interviews that if an predetermination had been called successful the fall, it apt would've resulted successful an predetermination framed astir affordability oregon whether the system was doing well. 

Then on came Donald Trump.

"Now it's the overmuch much existential question of who's amended to woody with with Donald Trump and tariffs," Farney said. 

Having a contention focused connected affordability would've been atrocious for the Liberals, Westlake said. As a long-term, incumbent government, the Liberals will be blamed for problems with the economy, health attraction and inflation, he said.

Refocusing the question connected Trump and tariffs means the Liberals are "not astir astatine the aforesaid benignant of disadvantage against the Conservatives" arsenic they would've been connected outgo of living, Westlake said.

Farney and Westlake said that whitethorn marque the predetermination much competitory overall, adjacent it doesn't play retired that mode successful Saskatchewan.

Both said the c taxation volition proceed to play a relation successful resource-dependent Saskatchewan, adjacent if this doesn't extremity up being the "Carbon Tax Election" Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had been calling for.

Farney said the Conservatives are apt to absorption connected the connection that the "economy volition get amended erstwhile authorities gets smaller and we chopped your taxes."

"As a governmental messaging cognition that's overmuch easier to sell," Farney said. 

Westlake said that adjacent with the c taxation falling retired of favour among the Liberals, it volition stay a metaphorical weapon for the Conservatives.

 Even retreating from the argumentation oregon promising to end it is improbable to halt the Liberals from being tagged connected the subject.

"The Conservatives tin inactive inquire the question, wherefore did you enactment this and wherefore did your enactment enactment this implicit the past 10 years?" Westlake said.