Reviving Quebec LNG project would be costly, likely unprofitable: new report

Stéphane Rolland · The Canadian Press

· Posted: May 22, 2025 1:45 PM EDT | Last Updated: 1 hr ago

Reviving a liquefied earthy state export task successful Quebec's Saguenay portion would beryllium costly and apt unprofitable, a shareholder advocacy radical says, arsenic economical threats from the U.S. rekindle involvement crossed the state successful caller pipelines.

Demand for LNG successful Europe dropped by 18 per cent betwixt 2022 and 2024, and Canadian exports would person a hard clip competing successful Asian markets, says advocacy radical Investors for Paris Compliance.

"Investing successful infrastructure that volition beryllium precise costly and apt won't beryllium profitable volition weaken our system alternatively than fortify it," Renaud Gignac, an economist and elder advisor for the group, said successful an interview.

In a study published Thursday, Gignac notes LNG accumulation is expected to turn by 40 per cent from 2024 to 2028, driven by projects successful the United States and Qatar, and request is not expected to support pace.

"This is significant," Gignac said. "What this means is that the profitability of immoderate caller task is compromised due to the fact that we hazard seeing downward unit connected prices."

A task to transport earthy state from Western Canada to an export terminal successful Quebec's Saguenay portion was cancelled successful 2021 owed to biology risks and nationalist opposition. But Quebec Premier François Legault has precocious opened the doorway to pipeline improvement successful the province, saying Quebecers admit the value of reducing the country's dependence connected vigor exports to the U.S.

The advocacy radical says ostentation could balloon the project's terms tag to much than $33 billion, and nationalist wealth would apt beryllium required.

"These are sizeable investments that mobilize nationalist superior and labour arsenic well," said Gignac, a clime argumentation analyst. "When you nonstop resources to this benignant of project, you marque choices, and we judge determination are options that could beryllium much profitable successful the agelong term, for some nationalist and backstage investors."

Pipeline projects a 'false solution,' says economist

U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to enforce punishing tariffs connected Canadian exports person ignited nationalist statement connected the inferior of a trans-Canadian pipeline to vessel lipid oregon state overseas. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Legault are among those who've chimed successful connected re-evaluating pipeline projects.

"As archetypal panic subsides pursuing the Trump administration's tariff threats, a calmer investigation of the East Coast LNG projects amusement that they transportation important risks for imaginable investors and taxpayers," says the report.

The investigation did not code the imaginable revival of a west-east lipid pipeline task similar Energy East, abandoned by TransCanada successful 2017, which would person crossed done Quebec to New Brunswick. But Gignac says the conclusions of specified an investigation would beryllium similar.

"There is an imminent forecast of highest demand," helium said.

Gignac considers reviving pipeline projects to beryllium "a mendacious solution" to making the Canadian system much resilient.

The radical said determination are amended ways to stimulate the Canadian economy, including integrating provincial energy grids and mining captious minerals, which are cardinal for the electrification of proscription and volition beryllium needed elsewhere successful vigor transition.

His group's enactment for mining, however, puts the relation astatine likelihood with immoderate environmentalists. "Mining is surely not without biology impact," Gignac said. "So we volition besides person to look astatine the astir liable ways to extract these minerals and bring them to market."

The study besides identifies the national government's plans to physique a high-speed bid linking Quebec City, Montreal and Toronto arsenic a promising project.