Putin's definite 'maybe' on ceasefire with Ukraine keeps the White House engaged

Despite initiating Europe's worst warfare since Hitler and having the humor of hundreds of thousands connected his hands, Russia's Vladimir Putin is not a person known for making big decisions quickly.

More often than not implicit his agelong tenure astatine the apical of Russia's powerfulness pyramid, many analysts judge Putin prefers to hold and defer alternatively than enactment decisively.

And so, when Putin's reply yet came Thursday arsenic to whether helium would hold to a U.S.-backed Ukrainian connection for a 30 time ceasefire, it was characteristically non-committal. 

"We hold with the proposals to cease hostilities," the Russian president said astatine a quality league successful Moscow,  alongside Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko.

But successful the adjacent breath, Putin said a abbreviated intermission successful the warfare held small involvement for him, and alternatively helium remained committed to a "long-term peace" that would "eliminate the archetypal causes of this crisis."

In different words, theoretically, yes — but for the moment, no. 

Details request to beryllium sorted retired — how would the ceasefire beryllium enforced, would Ukraine beryllium allowed to reposition its forces, and will they beryllium allowed to re-arm?

Putin implied getting each those answers volition instrumentality immoderate time, much discussions and nonstop conversations with the U.S. President.

Buying time

In the meantime, the warfare volition grind on. 

Part of Putin's strategy whitethorn beryllium to bargain his troops much clip to found much favourable beforehand lines for a imaginable freezing of the conflict.

"Putin is hedging his bets," said Mark Galeotti, a London-based Russian analyst.

"He's delaying truthful his forces tin implicit the recapture of Kursk, he's looking for further concessions, but he's not saying 'no.' "

Over the summer, the Ukrainian subject shocked Putin's service by capturing a sizeable information of Russian territory successful Kursk, and holding it for much than six months.

But successful caller weeks, arsenic Donald Trump pushed and coerced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into committing to a ceasefire, temporarily cutting disconnected assistance and intelligence, Russia's subject — with the assistance of troops from North Korea — focused the brunt of their attacks connected Kursk, eventually cutting disconnected Ukrainian proviso routes.

Ukrainian leaders concede they present lone clasp a tiny fragment of the archetypal Russian pocket. And successful his quality conference, Putin said successful the days ahead, the remaining Ukrainians connected Russian territory would look a choice: "either surrender oregon die." 

Earlier successful the day, Yuri Ushakov, Putin's cardinal overseas argumentation advisor, foreshadowed his boss's remarks, saying Russia had small involvement successful a impermanent halt to the war without immoderate of its broader objectives being realized.

"It gives america nothing. It lone gives the Ukrainians an accidental to regroup, summation spot and to proceed the aforesaid thing," said Ushakov.  

Expansive objectives

Despite suffering immense Russian casualties successful the 3 years since his penetration and repeatedly failing to seizure cardinal territorial objectives successful Ukraine, specified arsenic the superior Kyiv, Putin has fixed nary denotation that immoderate of his expansive goals for his onslaught connected the state successful 2022 person changed.

Putin has continually demanded the "de-militarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine — code for the removal of Ukraine's existent governmental enactment and its replacement with a Russia-friendly regime.

He has besides demanded that Ukraine lone tract a small, rump army and wantonness immoderate aspirations to articulation NATO oregon the European Union.   

Putin has further demanded NATO instrumentality to its pre-1990 configuration, leaving the Baltic States, Poland and different eastbound European countries adrift. Finally, helium has besides insisted Ukraine admit the 4 Ukrainian regions Russia captured during warfare arsenic being permanently portion of Russia.

They are each concessions Zelenskyy has said nary Ukrainian person could ever accept. 

"We are seeing a authorities that is inactive funny successful warfare and invasion," said Ian Garner, a Canadian world who present teaches successful Poland and has written extensively astir Putin's regime.

"Putin's dialog maneuver that is much astir brinksmanship than compromise. This is what we've seen for the past 10 years," said Garner, an adjunct prof astatine the Pilecki Institute, a Polish think-tank. 

"I fishy [Putin] is engaging successful a maneuver — he puts guardant demands that volition beryllium unacceptable to Ukraine, and Putin truthful says to Donald Trump, 'We've tried, they are being unreasonable, let's marque a deal.' "

Garner says avoiding an outright "no" to the ceasefire keeps the dialog with Trump going, along with the imaginable for re-establishing governmental and commercialized ties between Russia and the U.S. 

Trump's comments

In his archetypal remarks connected Putin's response, speaking from the Oval Office Thursday, Trump said helium hopes Putin "does the close thing" and that the Russian leader's statement, portion "promising" was besides "not complete." 

Notably, Trump besides suggested discussions involving the captured territories Ukraine volition suffer — or perchance regain — as portion of a bid woody are besides taking place.

"There's a powerfulness works involved," said Trump, a imaginable notation to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear powerfulness works in Enerhodar — Europe's largest — which is present nether Russian control. 

"A batch of the details of the last statement person been discussed, so we volition spot if Russia is there, and if it is not it volition beryllium a disappointing infinitesimal for the world."

Previously, Trump had said helium could instrumentality steps that could wreck Russia's system if Putin refuses the ceasefire,  but the U.S. President has taken a acold tougher stance with Ukraine, including temporarily cutting disconnected U.S. arms shipments and quality sharing.

In a connection Thursday night, Zelenskyy called Putin's connection connected the ceasefire "manipulative" and an effort to confuse and disguise the information that helium wants to proceed with the invasion.

The warfare continues

The adjacent moves look to beryllium up to Trump.   

His envoy, Steve Witkoff, was gathering with Putin successful Moscow Thursday night, and Trump said helium was prepared to talk to Putin straight successful the adjacent future.

In the meantime, however, Russia's penetration appears acceptable to continue, as does Ukraine's defence of its territory.

CBC News reached a 52-year-old Ukrainian soldier, Oleh, a erstwhile past teacher, who was wounded portion warring successful Kursk.  

His 26-year-old lad is inactive warring successful the eastbound Donetsk region. 

Oleh underscored the immense subject unit inactive faced by the soldiers connected Ukraine's beforehand lines.

"Russia has a precise ample occurrence capableness — more than we have," helium said.

"We cannot adequately respond to them. And truthful we person to, successful principle, dilatory say, retreat."

He acknowledged that portion astir Ukrainian civilians privation a ceasefire, soldiers are prepared for the negotiations to fail.

"We are soldiers, we volition beryllium told to fight, we volition fight. But arsenic a dad, I bash not privation to support [going.]"