Possibly good signs on freshet front: Snowpack has less water than usual

Aidan Cox · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 11, 2025 5:01 PM EDT | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

A little than mean magnitude of snowfall connected the ground is spelling affirmative aboriginal quality arsenic New Brunswick prepares for the unpredictability that comes with the emergence successful outpouring stream levels.

The snowfall h2o equivalent — a measurement of h2o derived from melted snow — is astir 20 per cent little crossed the state than it usually is, said Don Fox, manager of the aerial and h2o sciences subdivision with the Department of Environment.

"Well, it's surely not a atrocious thing," Fox told reporters Tuesday.

"But I would conscionable marque the constituent that there's enough, there's capable [snow] present if, if each the stars enactment up and each the conditions alteration ... that we could spot problems, for sure."

He spoke arsenic the New Brunswick government launched its yearly River Watch program, which tracks existent and forecast h2o levels primarily on the St. John River.

While gauges located successful respective communities from Saint John to Connors, successful northwestern New Brunswick, track h2o levels daily, upwind models and snowpack are utilized to cautiously foretell wherever those levels volition beryllium arsenic acold arsenic 5 days successful advance.

The Woodstock country of the St. John River is the lone determination that was marked arsenic being successful the flood ticker signifier Tuesday, but Fox said that's normal.

"That is not antithetic for this clip of year, and erstwhile that happens, doesn't needfully mean determination volition be, like, important flooding successful that area," helium said.

Ice jams hard to predict

Flooding tin hap erstwhile the crystal successful a stream breaks up and past blocks the travel of water, causing it to spill implicit the river's banks.

Fox said that benignant of flooding is simply a batch much hard to predict, compared to flooding caused by warm, rainy weather.

For that reason, areas on the St. John River, including Woodstock, Perth-Andover, Simonds and Hartland don't person forecast stream levels, Fox said.

"A lot of the upper, mid-to-upper stream is afloat intact ice, but successful the adjacent fewer weeks, we'll beryllium watching precise intimately and making those observations."

Fox said the province's programme lone updates stream levels erstwhile daily, but Environment and Climate Change Canada offers real-time information connected its website.

Weather another uncertain factor

While immoderate mightiness beryllium anxious for warmer outpouring weather, higher temperatures could beryllium the look for flooding.

Fox said the perfect upwind for avoiding flooding would person gradually warmer daytime temperatures, with corresponding chill temperatures astatine nighttime truthful that the snowpack melts slowly.

"Those conditions, if they spell for weeks and weeks are, you know, practically perfect, with precise small rain," helium said.

Environment Canada's seasonal forecast has a higher probability of above-ormal temperatures crossed the state from March into May.

That includes Fredericton, wherever there's a 50 per cent accidental of above-normal temperatures, and a 41 per cent accidental of above-normal rainfall.

"The conditions we anticipation don't hap are that it stays acold for a agelong play of clip successful toward spring, and past erstwhile it turns warm, it turns truly warm," Fox said.

"And that is what happened backmost successful 2018, wherever we had a agelong acold winter, and erstwhile things melted, they melted fast."

In a quality merchandise Tuesday, the New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization advised radical to person a program to evacuate and to beryllium self-sufficient for up to 3 days successful the lawsuit of flooding.

It besides called connected residents to determination belongings to higher crushed if their spot is prone to flooding and to debar the banks of waterways arsenic they tin beryllium unsafe this clip of year.