Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this nationalist sentiment probe to beryllium conducted instantly pursuing the national predetermination and starring into the 2nd day of the United Conservative Party's provincial predetermination triumph successful May 2023. 

As with each polls, this 1 provides a snapshot successful time. 

This investigation is 1 successful a bid of articles from this research. More stories volition follow.

As Premier Danielle Smith approaches the halfway constituent successful her mandate, implicit fractional of Albertans proceed to enactment her United Conservative Party, according to a CBC News poll.

"It's truly rather astonishing that 2 years in, she continues to bask a honeymoon," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Albertans betwixt May 7 and 21 for CBC News. 

"We haven't seen a honeymoon past this agelong for a person since the Ralph Klein days," Brown added. 

Twenty-four months aft Smith's United Conservative Party defeated Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats, the polling suggests the premier continues to bent connected to the enactment that propelled her to a bulk successful 2023. Now, 52 per cent of decided and leaning Alberta voters say they'd formed a ballot for the UCP. 

The canvass suggests the UCP would cruise to a majority, winning 61 ridings, portion the NDP could driblet from the 38 seats it won successful 2023 to 26 seats successful the provincial legislature.

In the 2023 election, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the ballot and 49 seats. The NDP captured 44 per cent of the ballot share, mostly successful Alberta's 2 large cities.

The caller canvass suggests astir 4 successful 10 Albertans (38 per cent) would ballot NDP. Seven per cent of respondents said they stay undecided. 

"The numbers are brushed for the NDP close now," said Brown successful an interrogation with CBC News. "Approval numbers for the person are brushed close now. It is pugnacious times for the NDP." 

Albertans' affirmative impressions of Smith, successful contrast, person ticked up implicit the past year, according to the survey. 

Improving content of Smith 

The governing UCP embarked connected an ambitious — and often arguable — docket since winning powerfulness 2 years ago. 

Despite worries astir "confusion and chaos" from front-line workers regarding the breakup of Alberta's wellness ministry and the lingering nationalist concerns over an Alberta-only pension program and establishing a provincial constabulary force, 4 successful 10 Albertans gave Smith precocious marks connected a standard from zero to 10 for however impressed they are with the premier.  

CBC News spoke with much than twelve radical connected Calgary's International Avenue and successful the assemblage of McKenzie Towne connected Monday astir the UCP's leader. Voters who liked Smith called her honorable and admired however she stands up for Alberta and ​​isn't acrophobic to accidental what's connected her mind.  

The voters disappointed with Smith who spoke to CBC News successful Calgary were astir apt to notation wellness attraction oregon her enactment for citizen-initiated referendums.

Many Alberta voters stay impressed with Smith. 

"She'd astir apt marque a truly bully premier minister, actually," elector Natasha Smith told CBC News.

Last year, Smith's wide favourable content standing was 4.5 retired of 10. This year, Smith's wide standing ticked up to 4.7.  

Consistent with CBC News polling from past year, much than 4 successful 10 of those surveyed (41 per cent) springiness the premier debased marks betwixt zero and three, portion different 16 per cent gave her a middle-of-the-road standing betwixt 4 and six.

"When Danielle Smith was archetypal elected person of the UCP, Albertans were precise cautious," said Brown. "The longer that they cognize Danielle Smith, the much comfy they're getting with her." 

Smith's persistent hardline posture with the national Liberal authorities appears fashionable with Alberta voters. 

Three-quarters of respondents who enactment holding a referendum connected Alberta breaking distant from Canada besides fertile Smith betwixt 7 and 10.

And astir 7 successful 10 (69 per cent) of those Albertans who o.k. of Smith's efforts to reset the Prairie province's narration with the national authorities springiness the premier precocious marks. 

Calgarian Lisa Farrell shares that view, saying she likes Smith's enactment for the province's lipid and state industry.

"I deliberation she's truly good," said Farrell, whose hubby mislaid his occupation successful the oilpatch past year. "I deliberation she's doing a bully occupation for the state and I deliberation she's lasting up for america and sticking up for us."

Smith's content scores person risen dramatically since she became premier successful the autumn of 2022. At that time, 54 per cent of Albertans said they were not astatine each impressed by the erstwhile speech vigor big and Wildrose Party leader.   

Not everyone's sentiment of the premier has improved, according to the Albertans CBC News spoke with connected Monday. 

Calgary elector Dave Gibson remains unimpressed with Smith, citing the UCP overhaul of Alberta's health-care system.  

"She's benignant of pulling isolated Alberta Health.… It's not that broken. Don't effort and hole it.… So, I'm not a fan," Gibson told CBC News connected Monday. 

Naheed Nenshi, who won the enactment of Alberta's NDP past summer, received an mean content standing of 4.1 successful the poll. 

Nearly 3 successful 10 Albertans (27 per cent) gave the erstwhile Calgary politician apical marks, but 4 successful 10 were not impressed with the NDP leader.  Ten per cent stay unsure.   

In comparison, lone 3 successful 10 Albertans gave Nenshi's predecessor, Rachel Notley, debased scores successful the outpouring of 2023.  

"When Rachel Notley resigned and we heard that Nenshi was going to beryllium running, determination was each sorts of excitement. He was seen arsenic a almighty governmental communicator," said Brown. "But things look to person fizzled retired since the enactment race. He's having a hard clip winning Albertans implicit astatine the moment." 

WATCH | Poll asks Albertans however impressed they are with Danielle Smith:

Love them oregon hatred them, Albertans, connected average, deliberation the leaders of the 2 main parties are much ideologically utmost than them. 

Middle-of-the-road voters spot leaders arsenic much extreme 

When it comes to ideology, the survey suggests Albertans spot themselves arsenic beauteous middle-of-the-road connected the left-right spectrum.

On average, Albertans skewed somewhat close astatine 5.8 erstwhile asked to spot themselves connected a standard from zero to 10, wherever zero means near and 10 means right. 

Using the aforesaid scale, Albertans polled said Smith was to the close of them astatine 7.9 retired of 10.

And they deliberation Nenshi is to the near of them astatine 2.9 retired of 10. 

"There's radical who don't rather cognize wherever helium stands, truthful I deliberation his biggest occupation is to get Albertans to recognize what helium is arsenic person of the NDP," said Brown. 

"And past I deliberation helium has to amusement Albertans that helium tin clasp views that are person to the centre, that he's not a left-wing extremist connected each contented they attraction about."

NDP support drops successful Edmonton and among young voters 

Nicknamed "Redmonton" for its astir unwavering enactment for the NDP, enthusiasm for the enactment has dropped considerably successful the superior since the 2023 election, according to the CBC News poll.

Nearly six successful 10 Edmontonians (58 per cent) voted for the NDP successful the past provincial election.

Poll results amusement the NDP and governing UCP successful a statistical necktie close now, with 47 per cent of Edmontonians saying they'd formed a ballot for the NDP and 44 per cent saying they similar the United Conservative Party.

The UCP, which captured 50 per cent of the ballot successful Calgary successful the provincial 2023 vote, has accrued its imaginable ballot stock to 52 per cent.

Meanwhile, the canvass suggests enactment for the NDP successful the office of Canada's lipid manufacture has dropped to 39 per cent.

Considered the battleground successful the 2023 provincial predetermination campaign, New Democrats captured 48 per cent of the ballot stock successful Calgary and 14 seats, immoderate by razor-thin margins.  

The survey indicates the UCP remains much fashionable with men (58 per cent) compared to women (45 per cent). A 3rd of Alberta antheral voters (32 per cent) accidental they'd ballot for the NDP.  Alberta women are much apt to formed a ballot for the NDP astatine 45 per cent. 

Seniors look astir evenly divided betwixt the UCP (46 per cent) and the NDP (44 per cent).  

Younger voters, ages 18 to 24, look to beryllium much inclined to ballot for the UCP (47 per cent) compared to the NDP (39 per cent).

The UCP dominates among voters betwixt the ages of 25 and 64 with 54 per cent, according to the poll, saying they similar the governing enactment to the absorption NDP (37 per cent).

"Younger men are much attracted to right-wing parties close now," said Brown. "And views connected separatism are truly important successful determining wherever radical stand. So, young radical who similar the thought of separatism, they're decidedly connected the close extremity of the spectrum. And the information that determination are young Albertans wanting to separate, that's atrocious quality for the NDP."

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted utilizing a hybrid method betwixt May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research nether the absorption of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The illustration is typical of regional, property and sex factors. The borderline of mistake is +/- 2.8 percent points, 19 times retired of 20. For subsets, the borderline of mistake is larger. The survey utilized a hybrid methodology that progressive contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the enactment of completing the survey astatine that time, astatine different much convenient time, oregon receiving an email nexus and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted radical utilizing a random database of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to 5 times astatine 5 antithetic times of time earlier different telephone fig was added to the sample. The effect complaint among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.