Poll of Sask. voters has Conservatives maintaining strong support, but Liberals gaining ground

Jeremy Warren · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 13, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

A caller canvass of Saskatchewan voters shows increasing enactment for national Liberals successful Saskatoon and Regina — capable to marque immoderate races competitory — but Conservative enactment remains precocious crossed the province.

"That the Liberals are truly cervix and cervix with the Conservatives successful the 2 large cities is simply a spot of a surprise," said Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's predetermination canvass tracker and writes astir elections astatine TheWrit.ca.

"If it holds until predetermination day, if we spot numbers akin to this, it's precise imaginable the representation of confederate Saskatchewan won't beryllium painted wholly blue."

The canvass was commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy via an online survey of 747 Saskatchewan residents from April 5 to April 10. The information was weighted to bespeak the property and sex organisation of the province. The borderline of mistake for a random illustration of this size is positive oregon minus 4 per cent.

When asked who they would ballot for if an predetermination was held today, 38 per cent of radical polled said they'd ballot for the Conservative Party of Canada, portion 25 per cent said they'd ballot for the Liberal Party of Canada, according to results of the poll.

Twenty per cent of voters were undecided erstwhile polled and 11 per cent of voters said they'd ballot for the national NDP.

But successful Saskatoon and Regina, Conservatives enactment is dropping among decided voters arsenic Liberal enactment rises, with the parties wrong 5 points of each different among the poll's respondents.

In Regina, 42 per cent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, compared to 37 per cent supporting the Liberals. Saskatoon's divided was 43 per cent for the Conservatives and 38 per cent for the Liberals.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh some made run stops in Saskatoon connected April 9, portion Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has yet to halt successful Saskatchewan this election.

The plaything successful support, and the diminution successful NDP support, makes the Liberals much competitory successful immoderate ridings, but apt not capable to really flip much than 1 seat, Grenier said.

"The borderline betwixt the Conservatives and the Liberals [in erstwhile polls] was truthful large that adjacent with this benignant of swing, the Liberals aren't needfully the favourites to triumph thing different than Regina Wascana," helium said.

NDP enactment is astatine 11 per cent and 13 per cent successful Regina and Saskatoon, respectively.

The poll also asked voters about leader likeability, their apical argumentation issues and Canada's commercialized warfare with the U.S.

Rubicon Straregy spouse David Herle said the numbers amusement the Liberals approaching the Conservatives successful respective Saskatchewan ridings.

"I deliberation that the Liberals would person a warring accidental connected these numbers successful Saskatoon West and Saskatoon-University, and past successful Regina-Wascana and Regina-Lewvan," Herle said successful an interview.

The Canada-U.S. commercialized warfare and President Donald Trump's annexation threats are causing voters to power enactment based connected their presumption of enactment leaders, Herle said. When asked if it's much important to support Canada from Trump oregon to guarantee Liberals aren't elected, 54 per cent chose protecting Canada implicit defeating the Liberals (36 per cent), according to the SUMA poll.

Herle said helium isn't amazed to spot Saskatchewan voters assess leaders connected however they volition grip Trump, due to the fact that the provincial system depends it.

"It's not conscionable however overmuch Canada sells, it's what Saskatchewan sells," Herle said. "In summation to the energy, there's evidently uranium and potash, 2 extraordinarily captious products for the American marketplace. As overmuch arsenic immoderate state successful Canada, Saskatchewan holds the whip manus implicit Donald Trump."

This is 1 of the uncommon national predetermination polls that specifically surveyed voters successful the province. Usually, Saskatchewan is lumped unneurotic with Manitoba and sometimes Alberta, which is why SUMA commissioned the poll, SUMA president Randy Goulden said.

"That whitethorn enactment for a nationalist lens, but SUMA truly wanted to place Saskatchewan circumstantial opinions and concerns," Goulden said. "We are proceeding from the residents, and present confirmed successful the survey, that the actions taken by President Trump and the realities that are coming guardant with tariffs are concerning.

"They're precise acrophobic astir the outgo of living.… What that interest astir affordability points retired to SUMA is that we request to proceed calling for economical growth."

Goulden said eliminating inter-provincial commercialized barriers and uncovering caller export markets for Saskatchewan goods are among SUMA's apical argumentation issues.

CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publically disposable polls, has the Liberals taking 43.9 per cent of the ballot country-wide compared to the Conservative's 37.5 per cent, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois facing important spot losses. The Poll Tracker puts the likelihood of a Liberal bulk astatine 85 per cent.