Poll finds Albertans' attachment to Canada has grown as support for separatism has hardened

Like galore Albertans, Michelle Schamehorn was disappointed by the Liberal triumph successful past month's national election.

But she's not connected committee with the escalating rhetoric surrounding Alberta separation.

"For me, no. I don't privation to separate," said the nonmigratory of Taber, Alta., who works astatine a section motortruck dealership and feels astir Canadian erstwhile she's snowshoeing successful the mountains. 

"I'm arrogant to beryllium Canadian. Very, precise arrogant to beryllium Canadian."

She remains squarely successful the bulk successful this province, according to caller polling commissioned by CBC News, which asked a random illustration of 1,200 radical crossed Alberta their views connected a assortment of topics.

When it came to the question of whether Alberta would beryllium amended disconnected if it separated from Canada, 67 per cent disagreed portion 30 per cent agreed. The effect was astir identical to a akin canvass that asked the aforesaid question 5 years earlier.

One happening that has changed, however, is the spot of enactment among the Alberta separatists. In May 2020, lone 12 per cent "strongly" agreed. By May 2025, that had grown to 17 per cent.

The canvass besides recovered a displacement successful nationalist sentiment astatine the different extremity of the spectrum.

Asked whether they consciousness much attachment to Alberta oregon to Canada, 34 per cent present picked their state implicit their province. That's up from conscionable 20 per cent 5 years ago.

There was small alteration successful those who consciousness much attachment to Alberta implicit that aforesaid time, while the proportionality of those who said "both equally" shrunk substantially.

"So, I deliberation we're seeing polarization connected some ends," said pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the public-opinion probe for CBC News. 

"When it comes to separation, we're seeing that the fig of radical who powerfully hold with separation is increasing," Brown said. "On the different side, we spot the radical who are attached to Canada, we spot that radical growing. The much we speech astir separation, the much radical are saying that they consciousness attached to Canada."

On a consecutive ballot question, meanwhile, 28 per cent of Albertans said successful the latest polling that they'd ballot to abstracted if a referendum were held today, compared to 67 per cent who would ballot against separation. Five per cent said they weren't sure.

Trump effect

CBC News visited Taber precocious to inquire radical successful Alberta's Conservative heartland astir what Canada means to them aft the rhetoric astir separation kicked up.

Several residents said they weren't acceptable to springiness up connected Canada yet, contempt their disappointment astatine seeing the Liberals triumph a 4th consecutive election.

Schamehorn said she's not a precise governmental person, but the operation of the predetermination defeat, speech of independency and the U.S. tariffs shocked her. It's made her wage much attention, she said, and she doesn't judge Alberta should prime up and locomotion distant successful frustration.

"We're Canada. We're Alberta. And we request to fig this out," she said.

"We person countries that are trying to destruct america close now. And we can't fto that happen. We person to fig retired however to beryllium strong, together."

Brown, the pollster, says the caller tariffs and annexation threats from U.S. President Donald Trump person had a chiseled effect connected however Albertans view their state and their country.

"When you look deeper astatine the data, determination decidedly is simply a transportation there," she said.

"One of the questions we asked was however stressed retired radical were astir U.S.-Canada commercialized relations. And it seems similar nine present successful Alberta is breaking into 2 groups: those radical who are precise preoccupied with tariffs and those radical who aren't that preoccupied with tariffs. In fact, they are much preoccupied with Ottawa than they are with Washington."

Albertans who consciousness stressed by the commercialized warfare expressed importantly higher attachment to Canada successful the caller polling.

Those who said they weren't stressed by it, successful contrast, expressed importantly higher attachment to Alberta.

'I conjecture I'm much Canadian'

Rick Tams works with Schamehorn astatine a motortruck dealership successful Taber.

He puts himself successful the Canadian-first camp, but with a beauteous large asterisk attached.

"We are a subordinate of a state archetypal and I unrecorded successful the state of Alberta, truthful I conjecture I'm much Canadian," helium said.

"But that being said, there's a spread wrong our ain country. It's flawed."

Tams says he's been frustrated by the past 10 years of Liberal authorities successful Ottawa, successful peculiar erstwhile it comes to shortage spending, oil-and-gas regulations and the deficiency of follow-through connected once-promised electoral reform.

He says he's seen, archetypal hand, however that's hardened immoderate Albertans' attitudes toward separation.

"In the circles I question in, I deliberation a referendum would person a chance," helium said. "That doesn't mean we person to leave. But it does mean radical person got to commencement paying attention."

As for himself?

"I would similar to spot conscionable a whole batch much accusation earlier determination was a vote," Tams said.

Political implications

Brown says the polling results amusement a "yes" ballot successful a hypothetical referendum connected separation would astir surely fail, but astatine the aforesaid clip uncover a "sizeable number of radical who are superior astir this idea."

"You conscionable can't telephone this a fringe thought anymore," she said. "It's a beardown sentiment successful the population."

The governmental implications are far-reaching, she added, particularly for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

Brown noted the canvass results amusement Alberta NDP supporters are astir universally opposed to separation, portion 54 per cent of UCP supporters said they would ballot successful favour of it, if a referendum were held today.

"Danielle Smith is dealing with a elector basal that's divided connected the contented of separatism, portion [NDP Leader] Naheed Nenshi is looking astatine a elector basal who is single-minded connected this issue," Brown said.

"So that makes it overmuch much challenging for Danielle Smith to negociate her mode done this."

At the aforesaid time, Brown said further information from the latest canvass suggests Smith is "doing a amended occupation speaking to the mediate radical — the radical who's some attached to Canada and attached to Alberta."

"That radical possibly wants a caller woody from Ottawa but doesn't privation to separate," Brown said. "And she is speaking to that group, and I don't deliberation the NDP is yet speaking to that group."

The details of that facet of the canvass results — which enactment is starring in popular support, and why — will be the taxable of the adjacent communicative successful this series, which volition beryllium published aboriginal Wednesday.

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this nationalist sentiment probe to beryllium conducted instantly pursuing the national predetermination and starring into the 2nd day of the United Conservative Party's provincial predetermination triumph successful May 2023. 

As with each polls, this 1 provides a snapshot successful time. 

This investigation is 1 successful a bid of articles from this research. More stories volition follow.

Methodology:

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted utilizing a hybrid method from May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research nether the absorption of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The illustration is typical of regional, property and sex factors. The borderline of mistake is +/- 2.8 percent points, 19 times retired of 20. For subsets, the borderline of mistake is larger.

The survey utilized a hybrid methodology that progressive contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the enactment of completing the survey astatine that time, astatine different much convenient time, oregon receiving an email nexus and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted radical utilizing a random database of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialled up to 5 times astatine 5 antithetic times of time earlier different telephone fig was added to the sample. The effect complaint among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.