Polish centrist's narrow presidential lead sees pro-EU path hanging in the balance

Thomson Reuters

· Posted: May 19, 2025 7:27 AM EDT | Last Updated: 5 hours ago

Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist Karol Nawrocki volition vie successful a 2nd circular of the statesmanlike predetermination successful Poland connected June 1, astir implicit voting results from the electoral commission showed aboriginal connected Monday.

The committee published information from 99.9 per cent of voting districts by provinces at  astatine 2:27 a.m. connected Monday without giving an wide result. The information shows Trzaskowski and Nawrocki good up of different candidates successful 15 of 16 provinces.

A precocious exit canvass by Ipsos from Sunday's archetypal circular showed Trzaskowski starring with 31.2 per cent of the vote, up of Nawrocki astatine 29.7 per cent.

If confirmed, the effect would mean that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki volition spell caput to caput successful a run-off ballot to find whether Poland sticks to the pro-European way acceptable by Prime Minister Donald Tusk oregon moves person to a much nationalist agenda.

Both candidates started preparing for the 2nd circular aboriginal connected Monday, with Trzaskowski gathering voters successful Warsaw and Nawrocki successful Gdansk.

"We request to speech to everyone, arguments are the astir important. I americium gladsome that galore young radical went to vote, but the large situation is to person them to ballot for me," Trzaskowski told reporters.

Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun unneurotic accounted for much than 21 per cent of the vote, a historically precocious percentage, winning wide enactment from young voters. It is not clear, however, who their votes volition spell to successful the 2nd round.

Braun, who successful 2023 utilized a occurrence extinguisher to enactment retired Hanukkah candles successful the country's parliament, an incidental that caused planetary outrage, won 6.3 per cent of the ballot according to the precocious poll.

Mentzen stopped abbreviated of instantly endorsing Nawrocki.

"Voters ... are not sacks of potatoes, they are not thrown from 1 spot to another," helium said. "Each of our voters is simply a conscious, intelligent idiosyncratic and volition marque their ain decision."

Stanley Bill, prof of Polish Studies astatine the University of Cambridge, said the combined beardown showing of nationalist and far-right parties meant the results were "a disappointment for the Trzaskowski campy and enactment upwind successful the sails of Nawrocki."

"I would adhd to this that the results are a important stroke to Donald Tusk's ruling coalition," Bill added.

Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice party, said helium volition combat for the votes the radical connected some sides of the governmental landscape.

"My societal docket and the information that I volition beryllium the guardian of the societal achievements of the Law and Justice authorities and the Solidarity [trade union] make it an connection besides for left-wing, socially delicate circles," helium said.

The ballot successful Poland took spot connected the aforesaid time arsenic a statesmanlike run-off ballot successful Romania, successful which centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan defeated euroskeptic hard-right lawmaker George Simion.

In Poland, the president has the powerfulness to veto laws. A Trzaskowski triumph successful the 2nd circular would alteration Tusk's authorities to instrumentality an docket that includes rolling backmost judicial reforms introduced by the Law and Justice Party that critics accidental undermined the independency of the courts.

However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became premier curate successful 2023 would beryllium acceptable to continue. Until now, the current President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk's efforts.

Role successful Europe astatine stake

Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland's relation arsenic a large subordinate astatine the bosom of European policymaking and enactment with the authorities to rotation backmost the right-wing Law and Justice Party's judicial changes.

Nawrocki's run was rocked by allegations, which helium denies, that helium deceived an aged antheral into selling him a level successful instrumentality for a committedness of attraction helium did not provide. But Trump showed enactment by gathering Nawrocki successful the White House.

Nawrocki casts the predetermination arsenic a accidental to halt Tusk achieving unchecked powerfulness and propulsion backmost against wide values represented by Trzaskowski, who arsenic Warsaw politician was a patron of LGBT marches and took down Christian crosses from nationalist buildings.

Unlike immoderate different euroskeptics successful cardinal Europe, Nawrocki supports subject assistance to assistance Ukraine fend disconnected Russia. However, helium has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among immoderate Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbour.

He has said Polish citizens should get precedence successful nationalist services and criticized Kyiv's cognition to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during the Second World War.