P.E.I. sees 1st quarterly population decline since 2020 as immigration slows

Thinh Nguyen · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 29, 2025 5:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 11 minutes ago

For the archetypal clip successful caller years, Prince Edward Island's colonisation has shown immoderate tiny signs of decline.

According to caller information from Statistics Canada, P.E.I.'s colonisation stood astatine 179,280 connected Jan. 1, 2025, which reflects a tiny driblet of 21 radical from the erstwhile quarter.

Though that's small, it does mark the archetypal quarterly alteration since the past 3 months of 2020, erstwhile the colonisation concisely declined during the COVID pandemic earlier resuming its dependable growth.

As of Thursday, unrecorded projections from Statistics Canada estimation the colonisation has fallen further to 179,249.

Patrick Brannon, a elder researcher with the Atlantic Economic Council, says that diminution was not unexpected, fixed caller national and provincial argumentation changes aimed astatine reducing immigration. They were designed to easiness colonisation maturation and the strain it causes connected infrastructure similar lodging and wellness care.

Brannon said portion migration has decreased, P.E.I. has besides experienced a nett nonaccomplishment of residents to different provinces, similar Ontario and Alberta. Additionally, the state has faced antagonistic earthy colonisation maturation successful caller years, meaning much Islanders are dying than being born.

"That's starring to colonisation decline, and that's thing we whitethorn spot implicit the adjacent twelvemonth astatine least," Brannon told CBC News.

Components of colonisation maturation connected P.E.I.

In the past 4th of 2024, planetary migration was the lone origin contributing to colonisation growth, with 505 newcomers arriving successful the province.

However, this was offset by a continued diminution successful earthy colonisation growth, with 450 deaths and lone 357 births.

The Island besides saw a nett nonaccomplishment of 198 residents to different provinces, with Alberta receiving the highest fig of Islanders.

On apical of that, determination was a nett nonaccomplishment of 219 non-permanent residents, specified arsenic planetary students and overseas workers.

Temporary residents contributed importantly to the Island's colonisation successful the past fewer years, but their numbers person plummeted implicit caller quarters. When the level slides into antagonistic territory, that means more impermanent residents near the Island than arrived successful the province.

This coincided with a fig of large changes to the Island's migration system. Foreign workers and planetary students person raised concerns that those argumentation changes are making it hard for them to get imperishable nonmigratory status, causing them to permission the province.

P.E.I. whitethorn inactive spot 'a small spot of growth' this year

Despite the caller slowdown, Brannon said P.E.I. inactive has stronger migration levels compared to different Atlantic provinces.

"We bash expect P.E.I., possibly 1 state that whitethorn spot a small spot of growth — but again, overmuch slower than we've seen successful the past," helium said.

As of Jan. 1, P.E.I.'s yearly colonisation maturation complaint was 1.7 per cent, the 4th highest successful Canada and the highest successful Atlantic Canada, tying with New Brunswick.

However, maturation has slowed for 5 consecutive quarters aft reaching an all-time precocious of 4 per cent successful the 3rd 4th of 2023 — the second-highest maturation complaint successful Canada, down Alberta.

In a statement, the provincial authorities said it is alert of the changing colonisation trends.

"P.E.I. continues to acquisition yearly colonisation growth, but astatine a slower gait compared to erstwhile years," the connection reads. "Population changes are impacted by evolving socioeconomic and demographic factors, among others. We are continuing to intimately show and measure these changes."

Moving forward

The slowdown successful colonisation growth, and perchance adjacent a population decline, is thing that concerns the Atlantic Economic Council, Brannon said.

"That's a large situation for our workforce, uncovering radical to capable the jobs, due to the fact that we bash person an older population."

He adds that caller changes made by the national authorities to chopped migration don't instrumentality into relationship the older colonisation successful Atlantic Canada.

"We bash person much circumstantial needs. We volition request much colonisation maturation going guardant than different parts of Canada," Brannon said.

"We bash spot immoderate payment to a spot slower colonisation growth, but we request to reassess immoderate of those policies beauteous quickly. Because, you know, we went from increasing astatine respective 1000 radical successful P.E.I. per twelvemonth to what we saw past quarter, really declin[ing].

"So we request to continually measurement those indicators and marque definite that we don't overcorrect and past miss retired connected an accidental to turn the labour unit going forward."

P.E.I. besides faces long-standing challenges successful retaining immigrants. Brannon noted that lone 40 per cent of immigrants who determination to the state are inactive present aft 5 years. If colonisation maturation continues to slow, this could make further strain.

To code these issues, Brannon determination should beryllium strategies that assistance clasp newcomers, from creating economical opportunities to having the situation successful spot wherever radical tin settle, not to mention ensuring they tin entree wellness attraction and find housing.

"That's thing that the state needs to proceed to enactment on."