Ontario needs to build more than 2 million homes in the next decade: internal docs

Shawn Jeffords · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 23, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

Ontario's people of gathering 1.5 cardinal homes by 2031 whitethorn not beryllium capable to conscionable demand, civilian servants person told the province's caller municipal affairs minister, saying that 2.1 cardinal homes could alternatively beryllium needed to amended affordability.

The estimates travel successful briefing materials provided to Minister Rob Flack, arsenic helium took connected the caller portfolio successful March.

The document, obtained by CBC News done a state of accusation request, suggests the scope of caller homes Ontario needs could beryllium arsenic overmuch arsenic 600,000 higher than the existent people acceptable by the Progressive Conservative government.

"It is estimated that betwixt 1.5 cardinal to 2.1 cardinal caller homes volition request to beryllium built successful Ontario implicit astir the adjacent decade, based connected assessments of the existent lodging proviso shortfall and/or projected colonisation growth," the nationalist servants wrote.

The authorities acceptable its 1.5 cardinal location people successful 2022 aft its lodging task unit recommended the goal. The civilian servants accidental they drew the precocious extremity estimates from a 2023 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation look astatine the lodging request and proviso gap, which they accidental takes into relationship what it would necessitate to bring the marketplace to 2003 levels of affordability.

The briefing papers besides charts an astir 1.2 cardinal idiosyncratic surge successful the province's colonisation since 2021, which has contributed to lodging needs.

During that aforesaid period, it notes location starts person been connected a steady decline, not hitting the yearly 100,000 required to conscionable the government's target. 

"Plans for caller proviso person been challenged by precocious onshore and worldly costs, authorities fees and charges, shortages of skilled trades labour, labour disputes, proviso concatenation issues and a backlog successful housing-enabling municipal infrastructure," the civilian servants wrote.

WATCH | Government tables caller measure aimed astatine speeding up lodging construction: 

A spokesperson for the curate did not straight reply questions astir the higher lodging request scope provided by the civilian servants. Instead, Alexandra Sanita said successful a connection that the authorities is spending $2.3 cardinal implicit 4 years to assistance municipalities physique the infrastructure they request for caller homes. 

Earlier this month, the state passed its latest measures to accelerate location construction, Bill 17. The instrumentality allows builders to defer improvement charges until completion of a task and reduces the fig of municipal studies required for caller housing.

During the news event to denote the bill, Flack didn't notation the 1.5 cardinal location extremity until helium was asked astir it by CBC News. 

"It's a goal, but frankly I'm much focused, and our squad is focused more, connected the adjacent 12 to 24 months, due to the fact that if it stays the mode it is now, we'll ne'er get there," helium responded.

"But is it forgotten? No way."

Opposition calls for investigation of authorities lodging plans

Last week, Ontario's Financial Accountability Office released an economical update which highlighted the continued driblet successful lodging construction. It recovered that 12,700 units were started successful Ontario during the archetypal 3 months of the year, a 20 per cent driblet from the 15,900 units started successful the archetypal 4th of 2024. 

NDP lodging professional Catherine McKenney has called connected the watchdog to excavation into the government's lodging plan. 

"We truly request to perceive from this government," she said. "Is lodging inactive a priority?"

Ontario needs to deed the precocious extremity of the lodging scope provided by the civilian work and bash that by getting backmost successful the concern of gathering profoundly affordable, non-profit, co-op and supportive housing, Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said.

"It is progressively being confirmed that the Ford authorities has abandoned gathering homes radical tin afford," helium said.

Housing targets 'in nary danger' of being reached, experts say

Richard Lyall, president of Residential Construction Council of Ontario, said helium would enactment an accrued people to 2.1 cardinal homes, but astatine the existent rate, the state won't adjacent travel adjacent to hitting its archetypal extremity due to the fact that its program hasn't been effective.

All governments request to little fees for builders, helium said.

"Whether it's the national target, provincial target, City of Toronto target, they're successful nary information of being hit," helium said. "And portion of that is due to the fact that erstwhile you acceptable a people similar that you person to interruption it down and enactment it backwards.'"

All levels of authorities should absorption connected gathering much modular homes, cutting municipal improvement charges, making cities full for mislaid revenue, and freeing up nationalist lands for lodging astatine a debased outgo oregon for free, said Karen Chapple, manager of the University of Toronto's School of Cities.

But Chapple said the state needs to beryllium realistic astir its housing targets.

"People conscionable benignant of laughter now at that 1.5 cardinal target," she said.

York University prof of biology and municipality alteration Mark Winfield is skeptical of the government's 1.5 cardinal location lodging people due to the fact that it doesn't interruption down types of lodging required successful the province.

With cuts to national migration levels, declining location income and a glut of unsold condos connected the market, it's clip for the authorities to rethink its strategy, helium said.

WATCH | Understanding the condo market: 

"I find it a small hard to compute however you could perchance travel up with those kinds of numbers, and indeed, however you could perchance physique that galore lodging units if you wanted to," Winfield said.

While location income and involvement rates person dropped and accrued affordability for buyers, this mightiness beryllium temporary, said Jason Mercer, main accusation serviceman for the Toronto and Region Real Estate Board.

"At immoderate constituent down the road, we're going to spot the request for lodging prime up," Mercer said.

"If we don't person capable proviso successful the pipeline due to the fact that we took our ft disconnected the state from a argumentation position … we're conscionable going to get into this vicious ellipse wherever we spell from having a batch of inventory to having nary astatine each and these volatile terms swings."