Oil and gas production can meet 'historical highs' under emissions cap: PBO

David Thurton · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 12, 2025 4:31 PM EDT | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

Even with a nationalist lipid and state emissions cap, Canada's fossil substance assemblage could boost accumulation by 11 per cent by 2032, according to an autarkic analysis.

The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released a caller analysis on Wednesday showing the national government's lipid and state emissions headdress would not impact the sector's existent accumulation levels — but does rise questions astir whether it would bounds aboriginal growth.

The study estimates that oilsands and earthy state accumulation and processing successful 2030-32 (the archetypal compliance play nether the cap) tin execute maturation "well supra existent levels."

The headdress would let for a 15 per cent assumed summation in oilsands accumulation and an astir 12 per cent summation for earthy state supra 2022 levels, according to the PBO.

The study notes that would being accumulation "close to humanities highs."

It lands aft the national authorities released draught lipid and state headdress regulations successful November. Final regulations are expected to beryllium released successful the spring.

While Ottawa calls it a contamination cap, critics call it a accumulation cap. Wednesday's PBO study clarifies that the draught argumentation does not headdress accumulation astatine existent levels.

But forecasts from the Canada Energy Regulator amusement Canada's fossil fuel industry could person been connected way to summation accumulation by much than 15 per cent successful that timeline.

Potential deed to GDP

The PBO estimates that Canada's projected real gross home merchandise (GDP) successful 2032 would autumn by 0.39 per cent, and projected nominal GDP (which does not relationship for inflation) by $20.5 billion, if the emissions headdress prevents the manufacture from achieving that level of growth.

The Conservatives linked premier minister-designate Mark Carney to that nonaccomplishment of imaginable lipid and state growth. Carney has suggested helium would travel done with the government's clime policies, but the user c tax.

"Parliamentary fund officer's study calculates Carney's lipid and state accumulation headdress volition termination 54,000 full-time Canadian jobs and $21 cardinal of yearly GDP," Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said connected societal media.

"How reckless. Right successful the mediate of a commercialized warfare with the U.S., Carney is attacking OUR jobs."

Like erstwhile reports, the PBO does not origin successful the outgo of clime alteration and its interaction connected the GDP. It besides does not see the jobs that could effect from decarbonizing the lipid and state assemblage and different sectors.

The study states the headdress would forestall astatine slightest 7.1 cardinal tonnes of emissions, equivalent to keeping 2,175,184 cars disconnected the road.

The study besides estimates future reductions by drastically cutting methane emissions, the astir potent greenhouse gas, and the fossil fuel sector's historical emissions intensity.

It does not see emissions reductions from circumstantial projects similar c seizure and storage, which a consortium of oilsands companies is proposing done the Pathways Alliance.

Janetta McKenzie, the lipid and state manager with Calgary-based vigor deliberation tank the Pembina Institute, says those projects "obviously would beryllium a huge, immense task to trim emissions successful the oilsands.

"So they presume that virtually nary further enactment is taken to trim those non-methane emissions successful the adjacent fewer years, which is not congruent with what immoderate of those firms person said."