NHL analysts, stats models and gaming sites give Stars edge in 2nd-round series vs. Jets

Bartley Kives · CBC News

· Posted: May 07, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

Hockey analysts, statistical models and oddsmakers are predicting a adjacent second-round Stanley Cup playoff bid betwixt the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars — with a wide statement giving Dallas the edge.

The best-of-seven Central Division bid betwixt Winnipeg and Dallas opens astatine Canada Life Centre connected Wednesday night, pitting the Jets, who finished archetypal successful the NHL during the regular season, against the fifth-overall Stars.

Winnipeg won 3 retired of 4 regular-season meetings betwixt the 2 teams, outscoring Dallas 13-5.

Dallas, however, improved earlier the NHL commercialized deadline with the acquisition of guardant Mikko Rantanen, who scored a chapeau instrumentality successful the Stars' come-from-behind triumph successful the seventh and deciding crippled of their first-round bid against the Colorado Avalanche.

Prior to Tuesday's playoff games, Rantanen was tied for the NHL postseason scoring pb with Winnipeg's Kyle Connor and William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs. All 3 had 12 playoff points as of Tuesday. 

Dallas forward Jason Robertson, a scoring threat who missed the archetypal circular against Colorado with a knee injury, is besides adjacent to returning, Stars manager Peter DeBoer told reporters Wednesday. Robertson could beryllium successful the Dallas lineup for the Stars' first crippled against the Jets, DeBoer said.

Injured Stars defenceman Miro Heiskanen is besides expected to instrumentality during this series.

Similarly, Winnipeg Jets guardant Mark Scheifele and defenceman Josh Morrissey — some of whom were injured during the Jets' first-round bid against the St. Louis Blues — volition beryllium game-time decisions connected Wednesday, Jets manager Scott Arniel told reporters. 

The different large origin affecting the bid volition beryllium the play of Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who followed up different superlative regular season — he's nominated for some the Vezina Trophy for champion goalie and the Hart for astir invaluable player — with a subpar opening-round bid against St. Louis.

Hellebuyck allowed 3.85 goals per crippled against the Blues and had an .830 prevention percent successful the archetypal round, giving him the second-worst statistic among goalies this postseason.

A statistical investigation by The Athletic, which functions arsenic the sports conception for the New York Times, gives Dallas a 51 per cent accidental of winning the series.

In a survey of unit who screen the NHL for the aforesaid media outlet, 92 per cent predicted the Stars would bushed the Jets, chiefly due to the fact that Dallas dispatched Colorado without Robertson and Heiskanen in the lineup — and due to the fact that of Hellebuyck's poor show against St. Louis.

NHL probability tracker Moneypuck.com, which besides employs statistical analysis, gives Winnipeg a 51.9 per cent accidental of winning the bid against Dallas.

Online betting sites favour the Stars. Dallas was favoured to triumph with an implied probability of 54.5 per cent connected Tuesday, according to the online gaming aggregator Odds Shark.