New Brunswick facing the lowest GDP growth in Canada this year, Deloitte forecast warns

Savannah Awde · CBC News

· Posted: May 05, 2025 4:57 PM EDT | Last Updated: 3 minutes ago

A caller study projects that New Brunswick volition lag down the remainder of Canada this twelvemonth connected gross home merchandise maturation in 2025. 

Deloitte Canada's latest economical outlook forecasts a 0.6 per cent alteration successful GDP for the state in 2025 — tied with Quebec for past successful the country. 

That fig besides slashes the past provincial projection nearly successful half. In March, the state tabled its ain outlook alongside the budget, and it forecast maturation of 1.1 per cent this year. 

The study besides projects Canada's economy will spot a downturn implicit 2 consecutive quarters this year. This would conscionable the accepted explanation of a recession, though the study does not usage that term.

New Brunswick Finance Minister René Legacy says the forecast is concerning, but he hopes infrastructure projects to statesman this twelvemonth volition assistance offset the estimate.

"There's inactive immoderate large projects that are expected to statesman successful New Brunswick this twelvemonth that perchance could person a affirmative impact," Legacy said Monday. "I'm not definite if Deloitte factored immoderate of these in, oregon if they're conscionable looking astatine the macroeconomic factors.

"There's the transmission corridor betwixt Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, we are starting to prep for the Isthmus ... hopefully we'll spot these infrastructure projects determination the needle."

WATCH | N.B. concern curate says 'major projects' could person affirmative economical impact: 

Construction connected the transmission enactment is to statesman this year, portion a quality merchandise from the state estimates enactment connected the Chignecto Isthmus will take about a decade. Preliminary engineering studies, plan and onshore acquisition are expected implicit the archetypal 5 years, with construction to travel aft that.

Legacy noted the Department of Finance and Treasury Board volition soon be preparing the economic update for the 4th that ends successful June. 

Chief economist Dawn Desjardins said successful a connection that Deloitte's forecast draws connected the existent commercialized situation and economical data.

"New Brunswick is highly exposed to commercialized and not lone astatine hazard of being impacted by U.S. tariffs but [it] besides exports seafood to China, with overmuch of those goods facing 25 per cent Chinese tariffs," Desjardins said successful a statement.

"N.B. besides faces U.S. duties connected its softwood lumber exports."

Desjardins noted that speech from tariff concerns, New Brunswick is besides seeing weaker migration and little income in the lodging market.

Consumers showing caution

Louis-Philippe Gauthier, Atlantic vice-president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said small and medium-sized concern owners are feeling the impact.

"When you look astatine consumers being much cautious with their dollars, tiny businesses not needfully successful the temper to put their money, to turn their business, due to the fact that of each the uncertainty, what we're seeing is perchance a slowdown connected the horizon," Gauthier said successful an interview. 

"It's a clip of pressures, it's a clip of uncertainty, and unluckily that's the infinitesimal successful time." 

He said it's excessively soon to cognize what authorities interventions mightiness assistance businesses upwind the storm. 

"Over the past fewer years, concern owners person lived ups and downs similar ne'er before," Gauthier said. "So unfortunately, it's much of that."