NDP still waiting for Nenshi wave: poll shows party farther behind UCP with new leader

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this nationalist sentiment probe to beryllium conducted instantly pursuing the national predetermination and starring into the 2nd day of the United Conservative Party's provincial predetermination triumph successful May 2023. 

As with each polls, this 1 provides a snapshot successful time. 

This investigation is 1 successful a bid of articles from this research. More stories volition follow.

Naheed Nenshi, the Alberta NDP person and prolific nationalist speaker, spent 55 minutes delivering a code to his party's normal successful aboriginal May astir the authorities of Alberta authorities and wherever helium wants to instrumentality his question and province.

Well, astatine slightest astir of it was present- and future-focused.

He spent 11 minutes adjacent the apical of his code looking backmost astatine the Calgary flood — the defining infinitesimal of his mayoralty. A twelve years ago.

At 1 constituent successful that reminiscence, helium became self-aware helium was dwelling connected the past.

"So I cognize this feels similar an aged story," Nenshi said. "Why is helium going backmost to the top hits?"

He past tried to span his storytelling astir Calgary's flood-time resilience into a metaphor astir the UCP government. 

"It's a flood of economical uncertainty. It's a flood of attacks connected our nationalist services. It's a flood of policies that disagreement alternatively than unite. And today, my friends, we're going to commencement stopping that flood."

But it seems similar the leader of 2013 Calgary isn't stirring hearts successful 2025 Alberta, according to caller polling from Janet Brown Opinion Research.

Ex-mayor down successful cities

The monolithic enthusiasm that surrounded his large triumph past twelvemonth arsenic the Opposition party's person appears to person failed to resonate beyond his base.

He was a prima enlistee from extracurricular the NDP ranks, selected to present triumph aft erstwhile premier Rachel Notley had failed successful her 2nd and 3rd bids to instrumentality the enactment to that electoral Jerusalem.

However, NDP fortunes person fallen sharply successful Calgary nether its archetypal Calgarian leader. They'd narrowly won the fashionable ballot and won the astir seats successful the province's largest metropolis successful 2023, but present way the UCP there by 13 percent points, the canvass shows — astir arsenic acold backmost arsenic they are provincewide.

And successful Edmonton, the metropolis they swept (again) and won by 29 points successful 2023, it's astir a tie.

Nenshi is moving successful a by-election successful Notley's erstwhile riding of Edmonton–Strathcona, and is adjacent mingling among the city's hockey fans successful a newish squad sweater. 

But helium has a batch of crushed to marque up successful his recently adoptive governmental location basal to adjacent bring the NDP backmost to its 2023 levels of success, fto unsocial faring amended than that adjacent election. 

"Our life's enactment is not to beryllium the biggest Opposition Alberta has ever seen," Nenshi told his enactment convention. "Our life's enactment is to beryllium the champion authorities Alberta's ever had."

While the NDP marque often struggled, Notley successful her second years tended to bask higher idiosyncratic enactment than her UCP rivals Jason Kenney and Danielle Smith.

The progressive party's existent person holds nary specified edge, compared to the existent premier.

In some Edmonton and Calgary, much canvass respondents are apt to accidental they person a antagonistic content of Nenshi than a affirmative one.

Brown said helium whitethorn person Smith to blasted for his fortunes, arsenic impressions of the premier person edged upward implicit her clip successful office.

"It's ever hard to look astatine a person successful isolation due to the fact that however good a person is doing is ever related to however good the idiosyncratic connected the different extremity of the teeter-totter is doing," the pollster told CBC News.

"So Danielle Smith astir apt owes thing to Nenshi for however good she's doing, and Nenshi astir apt has to admit that Smith is 1 of the reasons that he's not performing arsenic well."

Brown cites Smith's "dynamic" communicating skills — say, wasn't that Nenshi's estimation too? — but besides her quality to predominate the docket arsenic premier. 

"She conscionable takes up truthful overmuch of the energy, it's hard for Nenshi to get into the debate," Brown said.

Over his astir 1 twelvemonth arsenic leader, Nenshi hasn't been capable to get onto the legislature level for immoderate ceremonial debate; but with a by-election triumph connected June 23, he'll person that accidental erstwhile the assembly resumes sitting successful October.

But getting successful 4 weeks of question play jousts this autumn won't apt substance overmuch — not with truthful galore different modern ways to marque his governmental connection heard, said Keith McLaughlin, a erstwhile NDP elder adjutant and strategist.

To him, Nenshi should alteration the contented and attack of his message, alternatively than expect the venue to amended things for him.

"Voters privation fighters, not feelers," McLaughlin said successful an interview. "They don't privation to spell for a bleeding heart."

While Nenshi's recollections of the Calgary tone during the flood were good received by convention-goers, McLaughlin said, the partisans were acold much energized by their leader's much spirited rhetoric astir labour strife among acquisition unit and astir their rivals' flirtation with provincial separatism.

David Climenhaga, a provincial NDP protagonist and blogger, wrote aft the Alberta normal that Nenshi's been "weirdly passive" erstwhile he's had the accidental to instrumentality connected Smith.

"There are tons of societal media videos, but I don't get the feeling Mr. Nenshi's professorial lectures person homed successful connected the issues that substance the astir to the moving Albertans whose votes the provincial NDP requires to propulsion it implicit the top," Climenhaga wrote.

However, clip and circumstances whitethorn person prevented Nenshi from capitalizing connected 2 of the biggest fights his NDP person taken to the United Conservatives.

The absorption was girding for a large combat past fall, erstwhile Smith enactment distant her authorities making large argumentation changes connected transgender younker wellness attraction and successful schools successful precocious October. But soon afterward, headlines were dominated by Donald Trump's triumph southbound of the border, and his consequent threats connected Canadian sovereignty.

Months later, contention erupted implicit Alberta Health Services' contracting practices and the ouster of CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos. Nenshi's NDP swiftly branded it a ungraded and demanded different ouster, that of Health Minister Adriana LaGrange.

The Trump bump (of each other disconnected the agenda)

But different events dominated the headlines arsenic those health-management stories broke, too. 

A recently inaugurated President Trump ramped up his tariff threats connected Canada, and the emergence of Liberal Leader Mark Carney and the national predetermination became the main communicative successful Alberta and elsewhere, possibly giving little spotlight to provincial politics, wherever Nenshi and his MLAs were engaged fervently denouncing their rivals and trying to item the AHS saga.

Brown besides said she believes the caller evaporation of national NDP enactment is helping resistance down the provincial party. Nenshi's squad has precocious started referring to themselves arsenic "Alberta's New Democrats" alternatively of utilizing the NDP acronym — a subtle effort to region themselves from their national cousins.

That's connected apical of a much ceremonial separation of national and provincial branches. 

At the aforesaid normal wherever Nenshi shared his flood reminiscences, members voted to extremity automatic rank successful the national NDP for each provincial card-holders.

They besides showed unity down their person with an 89.5 per cent ballot of enactment successful his enactment review.

The enactment is leaning connected him successful these by-elections. Not lone is Nenshi's sanction connected his ain campaigner tract signs successful Strathcona, but his cross-town workfellow moving successful the vacant Edmonton-Ellerslie has a "Team Nenshi" logo successful 1 country that's larger than the party's logo successful different corner.

Despite his subpar show successful polls to date, there's acold much patience than discontent among New Democrats with Nenshi, McLaughlin said. There's besides consciousness that helium has clip to marque up crushed earlier the adjacent Alberta predetermination successful autumn 2027.

While his NDP remains united, there's crisp part wrong Smith's enactment connected the separation question. And who knows what aggregate investigations into the AHS substance volition conclude?

At the extremity of Nenshi's speech, helium spent 3 much minutes connected 1 past 2013 Calgary flood communicative — astir 1 household wracked by the disaster, and the shepherd's pastry that strangers made for them. 

He spoke astir the heavy kindness and generosity of Albertans successful the look of adversity, and past spoke of tapping into that tone to flooded what Smith's UCP person wrought.

It whitethorn person been a caller anecdote to galore of the non-Calgarians astatine this Alberta NDP event, but it's 1 that by 2014 had already been well-worn successful Nenshi's rhetorical repertoire.

He whitethorn take to refresh the contented of his speeches arsenic helium continues successful his bid to overtake the UCP and Smith.

Or, helium could instrumentality with his top hits, the pivotal infinitesimal of his past governmental vocation and for Calgary. 

But if the flood is inactive his favourite notation constituent travel adjacent election, he'll beryllium seized by thing that happened 14 years ago, erstwhile voters volition beryllium acrophobic astir the adjacent 4 years.

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted utilizing a hybrid method betwixt May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research nether the absorption of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The illustration is typical of regional, property and sex factors. The borderline of mistake is +/- 2.8 percent points, 19 times retired of 20. For subsets, the borderline of mistake is larger. The survey utilized a hybrid methodology that progressive contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the enactment of completing the survey astatine that time, astatine different much convenient time, oregon receiving an email nexus and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted radical utilizing a random database of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to 5 times astatine 5 antithetic times of time earlier different telephone fig was added to the sample. The effect complaint among valid numbers (i.e. residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.