Low snowpack, early snowmelt, warm weather in forecast point to higher B.C. drought risk, says forecaster

Jon Azpiri · CBC News

· Posted: May 09, 2025 4:52 PM EDT | Last Updated: 7 minutes ago

The B.C. River Forecast Centre says a operation of a debased snowpack, aboriginal snowmelt and forecasts of lukewarm upwind are pointing toward elevated drought hazards successful the province.

The province's snowpack sits astatine 71 per cent of mean levels arsenic of May 1, the centre wrote successful its latest monthly report, down from 79 per cent connected April 1.

The centre notes levels were "extremely low" last May, with the mean crossed B.C. at 66 per cent of normal.

Snowmelt is happening earlier than usual, the reports says, with 15 per cent of the highest full snowpack astatine automated stations melting by May 1. In a emblematic year, 5 per cent of the snowpack has melted by aboriginal May. 

Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist for the stream forecast centre, says there are drought concerns due successful portion to semipermanent precipitation deficits that day backmost to 2022. He says outpouring upwind volition beryllium a factor in summertime drought conditions.

"April wasn't great, but much important is what happens successful May and June, and it's inactive a small spot excessively aboriginal to cognize for sure," helium said, adding that seasonal forecasts from Environment Canada indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures from May to July. 

The snowpack in astir regions of B.C. ranges from 60 to 80 per cent of normal, the study says, while a snowpack below 60 per cent was measured for the Upper Fraser West, Lower Thompson, Nicola, Bridge, Skagit, Central Coast, Similkameen, and Skeena-Nass regions.

The study noted that temperatures in B.C. ranged from 0.5 C to 2.5 C warmer than accustomed past month, portion precipitation was beneath mean oregon somewhat beneath normal.

The centre says determination isn't an elevated hazard of floods given current snowpack levels, but higher flows are imaginable if determination is dense outpouring rainfall.

The B.C. Wildfire Service's summertime forecast expects higher than usual temperatures into spring, with the anticipation of above-average precipitation implicit coastal and cardinal B.C.

The work said precipitation in May and June, typically the rainiest months successful B.C.'s Interior, "will power the magnitude and strength of the halfway wildfire season."

Boyd said that portion determination are concerns astir the magnitude of snowmelt, it's inactive early in the season, and conditions tin change. 

"It's inactive a agelong mode to go," helium said. "There are still the outpouring and summertime upwind conditions, and we tin person bouncebacks, peculiarly if we person a mates of weeks of ... unsettled upwind wherever we person respective storms travel in."