Liberals on course to take majority of N.S. seats, polls and experts agree

Taryn Grant · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 26, 2025 5:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

When Nova Scotia Liberals were astir wiped disconnected the representation successful a provincial predetermination 5 months ago, it looked similar their national cousins were connected a akin path.

But now, with the last ballots successful the national predetermination to beryllium formed and counted connected Monday, a precise antithetic result seems likely. Public sentiment polls and governmental experts are projecting the national Liberals could instrumentality astir of the 11 seats up for grabs successful Nova Scotia.

"This is conscionable going to beryllium an bonzer lawsuit survey successful the aboriginal for authorities classes," said Meredith Ralston, a prof of governmental studies astatine Mount Saint Vincent University.

Ralston and different observers who spoke with CBC News attributed the reversal of fortunes successful Nova Scotia to the aforesaid factors that person shaped the contention nationally: the alteration successful Liberal enactment and the intrusion of U.S. President Donald Trump into Canadian authorities done tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty. 

However, determination are section factors that volition besides signifier the result connected a riding-by-riding basis.

WATCH | Jean Chretien stumps for a Nova Scotia campaigner who is trying to flip a Conservative seat:

Local factors

Tom Urbaniak, a prof of governmental subject astatine Cape Breton University, pointed to the fisheries arsenic an contented that favours the Conservatives successful ridings that are highly babelike connected that industry. He besides noted the "star" origin for the Conservative campaigner successful Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish, Allan MacMaster.

MacMaster was a longtime Progressive Conservative MLA who precocious served arsenic concern curate and lawman premier until stepping down past autumn to question the national nomination.

"That volition number for thing successful that riding," said Urbaniak.

Poll aggregators 338Canada.com and TheWrit.ca some favour the Liberals successful 8 of Nova Scotia's ridings, projecting the different 3 arsenic either leaning Conservative or a toss-up betwixt the Liberals and Conservatives.

The projections are akin to wherever Nova Scotia stood astatine dissolution of Parliament. The Liberals held 7 seats, the Conservatives held three, and 1 was vacant that had been held by Liberal Andy Fillmore earlier helium stepped down to tally for politician of Halifax past fall.

The 3 Conservative incumbents are re-offering, arsenic are six Liberal incumbents. Up until the archetypal week of the campaign, lone 5 Liberal incumbents were re-offering, but Sean Fraser — the erstwhile Trudeau furniture minister — changed his caput astatine the behest of Liberal Leader Mark Carney.

Hoping against a sweep

Acadia University Prof. Alex Marland said helium expects "many, many" Liberal MPs retired of Nova Scotia, but helium hopes not to spot a sweep, which happened successful 2015. 

Marland said helium anticipates a Liberal expanse successful Newfoundland and Labrador and successful Prince Edward Island, and a Liberal bulk successful New Brunswick. He said a expanse crossed the portion by immoderate enactment would beryllium a "bad outcome."

"Regardless of wherever things extremity up, it's important to marque definite that nationalist parties person practice from Atlantic Canada successful their caucuses," he said.

Conservatives inactive moving to win 

In spite of the evident Liberal edge, Conservatives successful Nova Scotia are inactive treating the contention arsenic competitive, Urbaniak said.

In Cape Breton, helium said, the campaigns are "energized."

"They've got a batch of volunteers knocking connected the doors, a batch of lit going around. They're trying to amusement up successful a batch of places," Urbaniak said.

Conservatives whitethorn beryllium showing up connected doorsteps, but galore Conservative candidates are declining to enactment successful different accepted aspects of governmental campaigns. 

Seven retired of 11 Conservative candidates successful Nova Scotia declined oregon did not respond to interrogation requests from CBC News. Some besides declined to talk to different media outlets and declined to enactment successful section campaigner forums and debates hosted by non-partisan groups.

Ralston said it's "not a bully strategy."

"What it's doing is conscionable again making them look adjacent much similar mini Trumps. And truthful that's wherefore a batch of radical are precise disquieted astir a Conservative government."

Urbaniak said it's "a immense mistake" to marque candidates scarce. He said it puts excessively overmuch absorption connected the party's leader, Pierre Poilievre.

"People request to spot that there's a team, they request to spot that the section MPs would person power to beryllium capable to bring section issues to Ottawa, to beryllium capable to bring backing and infrastructure to the ridings," said Urbaniak.

NDP collapse

Races crossed the state are mostly projected to beryllium betwixt the Liberals and Conservatives — immoderate person than others — but Marland said the New Democrats should not beryllium forgotten. He doesn't expect the enactment to triumph immoderate seats successful Nova Scotia, but helium said their "collapse" is an important portion of the story.

He pointed to the riding of Halifax, wherever campaigner Lisa Roberts is moving for the 2nd time. The erstwhile Nova Scotia NDP MLA mislaid narrowly to Fillmore successful the 2021 election. Marland said Roberts's run was good organized and she seemed, conscionable a fewer months ago, poised for victory.

"And, you know, it seems rather apt present that it volition extremity up being Liberal," Marland said.