Liberals eyeing more seats in Tory-blue Alberta, as some ridings may be tight contests

Matthew Scace · The Canadian Press

· Posted: Apr 12, 2025 1:09 PM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago

Until past month, Lindsay Luhnau had rejected requests to tally arsenic a national Liberal successful Alberta's vigor capital.

"It's not casual to beryllium a Liberal successful Calgary," Luhnau said. "I've been asked galore times and ever said no."

Her reply changed past period erstwhile the governing Liberals changed leaders, and she figured the tide could turn.

"Once [Liberal Leader] Mark Carney was successful, I called and said, 'Is this spot inactive open?' said Luhnau. She was nominated to tally successful Calgary Centre 4 days aft the writ driblet to motorboat the national election.

The run is present astatine the three-week mark, and pollsters suggest Calgary Centre is 1 of a fistful of municipality Alberta ridings that volition apt beryllium choky contests betwixt the national Conservatives and Liberals.

It's the archetypal clip successful caller representation the occidental state has been 1 to watch.

Tory humor runs heavy successful Alberta, and its long-standing penchant for the Conservatives isn't diminishing, said pollster Janet Brown. But a fig of seats person go toss-ups this predetermination arsenic the progressive ballot appears to beryllium consolidating down the Liberals, she said.

"The Conservatives are remaining strong. In fact, their enactment whitethorn adjacent beryllium increasing successful Alberta," said Brown. "But the crushed Alberta is going to beryllium competitory is due to the fact that the NDP ballot seems to beryllium collapsing."

Until 2015, Calgarians had not elected a Liberal since 1968, a streak that started and ended with Pierre and Justin Trudeau's respective campaigns for premier minister. Today, the Liberals and NDP each clasp 2 Alberta seats.

This clip around, governmental scientists constituent to 4 Calgary ridings that volition beryllium competitory alongside a fistful successful Edmonton.

"Before 2015, during national elections, Alberta was often a flyover province," said governmental idiosyncratic Lori Williams.

But successful a run focusing connected affordability, the economy, and who volition champion basal up to the tariff and annexation threats of U.S. President Donald Trump, Williams noted that Alberta has gone from flyover to stopover.

"Some of the behaviour of the leaders is raising questions astir whether things are changing," said Williams, with Mount Royal University successful Calgary.

"It's wide that there's a batch much going connected successful Alberta than monolithic conservatism."

In caller days, Carney has tipped the achromatic cowboy chapeau successful a two-day sojourn to Calgary. Calgary-born Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held a monolithic rally astatine a warehouse extracurricular Edmonton.

Both person vowed to fast-track assets improvement and trim reddish portion during their trips to Canada's vigor heartland.

Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is the Liberal's highest-profile campaigner moving successful Alberta. Sohi, a Liberal furniture curate earlier being elected the city's mayor, took permission past period from his mayoral duties to tally successful Edmonton Southeast. Lawyer Jagsharan Singh Mahal is moving for the Conservatives successful that riding.

Calgary Confederation, a riding crossed the Bow River from downtown, is expected to beryllium a choky contest. Three-term Conservative MP Len Webber announced his status from authorities the time earlier the run started. Jeremy Nixon, a erstwhile Alberta MLA, has replaced him arsenic the Conservative candidate.

Webber, 64, precocious told The Canadian Press helium believes helium would person won "handily" had helium tally again. The neighbourhood has been a reliable person to national conservatives since the 1940s.

"I talk to galore radical astatine doors who person said to me, 'Len, we've supported NDP provincially, but we volition beryllium voting for you federally.' I don't cognize if that has thing to bash with maine personally — that they're voting for maine oregon is it the party? I'm not sure."

The riding's Liberal candidate, Corey Hogan, said helium sees "a existent pragmatic streak" among section progressives that could effect successful erstwhile NDP voters lining up down the Liberals.

"When I'm doorway knocking and I spot an NDP sign, the conversion complaint is astir 100 per cent to, 'Yeah, I'll ballot for you if you look similar the idiosyncratic who's going to win,"' said Hogan.

In neighbouring Saskatchewan, much predictable results are expected successful the state that has go staunchly blimpish with its dependable conversion to a resource-based economy. Save for the tremendous popularity of erstwhile nine-term Liberal MP Ralph Goodale, Saskatchewan has elected conscionable 2 Liberals since 1997.

"We are present the astir consistently blimpish province," said Tom McIntosh, a authorities and planetary studies prof astatine the University of Regina.

However, much than fractional of its electoral representation could beryllium Liberal reddish connected predetermination night.

Boundaries astir the monolithic Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River riding — which singularly covers the full bluish fractional of Saskatchewan with a colonisation of astir 38,000 — were precocious redrawn. The caller representation shelved respective conservative-leaning communities distant from the riding, and humanities voting patterns amusement the caller portion would person voted either Liberal oregon NDP successful the erstwhile 2 elections.

In Manitoba, wherever municipality ridings often spell to progressive parties, governmental scientists suggest cratering enactment for the New Democrats whitethorn promote the enactment to marque a last-ditch run effort to enactment up its beardown voting basal successful Winnipeg and the north.

"The NDP has often retreated to Manitoba erstwhile they've been successful a batch of trouble. That mightiness beryllium happening now," said Chris Adams, adjunct prof of governmental studies astatine the University of Manitoba.

Nevertheless, helium said progressive voters look to beryllium shifting toward the Liberal party.

"I deliberation that we'll spot the akin reddish expanse of astir of Winnipeg. That is rather likely, if these numbers are right."

Election time is April 28.