Leaders' debate likely won't influence most people's votes, Vote Compass data suggests

Michael Woods · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 18, 2025 2:07 PM EDT | Last Updated: 11 minutes ago

Most Vote Compass users who watched Thursday night's national leaders' statement accidental it won't oregon apt won't power their vote, while a plurality of viewers can't place a wide winner, according to information from the vote-gauging tool. 

The national enactment leaders squared disconnected Thursday nighttime successful Montreal successful the campaign's lone English-language debate. The French-language statement was Wednesday.

A full of 38 per cent of those who filled retired Vote Compass's survey recovered it somewhat, precise oregon highly apt that the English statement volition power however they vote. But a bulk — 58 per cent — said it would not astatine each oregon not precise apt power their vote.

The findings are based connected much than 13,100 users who participated successful the Vote Compass survey Thursday and Friday.

With polls showing Liberal Leader Mark Carney arsenic the front-runner this campaign, the different 3 main enactment leaders spent overmuch of Thursday's statement with him successful their sights.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre argued that Carney's Liberal authorities would beryllium the aforesaid arsenic erstwhile premier curate Justin Trudeau's. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh repeatedly said Carney would chopped nationalist services specified arsenic backing for wellness care. And Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet questioned Carney astir his firm interests and said helium would not basal up for Quebecers.

Despite each those efforts, among a plurality of Vote Compass users, determination was nary wide winner. Asked to prime who won the debate, 40 per cent of those who responded to the Vote Compass survey could not place one. Carney was the second-most predominant prime astatine 34 per cent, followed by Poilievre astatine 22 per cent.

AT ISSUE | Did the national leaders' statement alteration anything?

Poilievre won among antheral voters, with 30 per cent seeing him arsenic the winner, compared to 29 per cent for Carney. But among women, 38 per cent chose Carney and 16 per cent chose Poilievre.

That backs up polling that has shown a important sex spread successful the parties' support. An Angus Reid canvass this week recovered the Conservatives person gained among antheral groups and pb among men implicit 34, but women of each ages favour the Liberals.

Picking the victor fell mostly upon partisan lines. But astir undecided voters who filled retired the Vote Compass survey — 73 per cent — said they could not sanction a winner.

Speaking astatine a quality league Friday successful Montreal, Poilievre said the statement "confirmed that this predetermination is astir change," portion adding that the Liberals bash not merit a 4th word successful power.

Carney told reporters astatine an announcement successful Niagara Falls, Ont., that helium thought the debates were good moderated and featured "an speech of ideas."

"One would ever privation determination were a batch much clip to afloat make the ideas, but successful the constraints of clip it was good structured," helium said.

WATCH | The statement successful 6 minutes:

With the 2 debates nether their belts, the leaders deed the run way again connected Friday. Advance voting besides opened connected Friday, with reports of agelong lines astatine polling stations successful cities crossed Ontario.

None of the parties represented connected the statement signifier this week person released costed platforms. Carney said the Liberals volition merchandise their afloat costed level connected Saturday. Poilievre said earlier this week the Conservatives' would travel successful the adjacent fewer days.

The Green Party released its afloat level connected Thursday.

Election time is April 28.

Developed by a squad of societal and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is simply a civic engagement exertion offered successful Canada exclusively by Radio Canada/CBC. The findings are based connected 13,105 respondents who participated successful Vote Compass from April 17, 2025 to April 18, 2025.

Unlike online sentiment polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to sentiment polls, however, the information are a non-random illustration from the colonisation and person been weighted successful bid to approximate a typical sample. Vote Compass information person been weighted by gender, age, education, region, connection spoken successful the home, and partisanship to guarantee the illustration creation reflects that of the voting-eligible colonisation of Canada according to census information and electoral data.