Is Canada beating ploughshares into swords with its NATO 5% pledge? Not likely

Murray Brewster · CBC News

· Posted: Jul 02, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago

By anyone's measure, $150 cardinal a twelvemonth is an eye-watering magnitude of wealth to walk connected thing — fto unsocial defence.

While it pales successful examination to the inflation-adjusted appropriations of the Second World War, it is potentially, for this generation, the precise explanation of beating ploughshares into swords.

Or is it?

Following each of the governmental dependable and fury and sticker daze of past week's NATO acme successful The Hague, the question of what Prime Minister Mark Carney's authorities wants to execute with each of that wealth — connected an yearly ground — is coming into adjacent sharper focus.

On the surface, the Liberals person pledged to rapidly and efficiently rearm the Canadian military.

"We are protecting Canadians against caller threats. I privation we didn't person to, but we bash person to and it is our halfway work arsenic government," Carney said astatine the summit.

"The radical who person been making sacrifices person been the men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces due to the fact that they person not been paid to bespeak what we are asking them to do. They haven't been operating with the close instrumentality successful galore cases.

"We're making up for that."

WATCH | Procurement remains a challenge, says erstwhile officer: 

But the reflex is beardown wrong national institutions to usage subject procurement arsenic a instrumentality of economical development. It has been frankincense for decades.

At the aforesaid time, we support getting told — by the premier curate nevertheless — that we are successful bonzer times and a "national emergency."

Much was made, some successful the run-up and successful the aftermath of the NATO summit, astir the signing of a information and defence manufacture concern betwixt Canada and the European Union. Politically, it has been formed since past spring's predetermination arsenic a conveyance — if not the conveyance — to recognize rearmament.

There are a fewer steps to spell earlier Canada tin unlock the imaginable of buying subject instrumentality successful bulk with its allies. But erstwhile you look astatine the model of the partnership, the rearmament imaginable is dwarfed by the economical accidental for Canadian defence contractors to merchantability into Europe nether the $1.25-trillion ReArm Europe plan.

The attack seems to beryllium that Canada wants some its guns and butter. Neither, extracurricular large wars of the past century, has ever been mutually exclusive and they don't person to be.

However, the worldly authorities of the Canadian subject is specified that the guns — to widen the metaphor — were needed yesterday.

While a concern with the Europeans makes bully economical and geopolitical consciousness successful the agelong term, it doesn't look to beryllium a solution to the contiguous rearmament crisis.

"European concern bases are simply not prepared astatine the infinitesimal for a protracted conflict," said Seth Jones, president of defence and information astatine the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"If you look astatine European states, they inactive deficiency capable capabilities successful combat support, successful short-range aerial defence and long-range indirect fires, aerial lift."

Jones besides noted determination are important challenges with "munitions stockpiles, with proviso concatenation weaknesses [and] wrong the broader European and U.S. concern bases workforce."

If the Canadian authorities is superior astir rearmament beyond a instrumentality of economical development, the contented volition travel down to the question of wherever bash you find a blistery accumulation enactment and however rapidly tin you get what the subject says it needs.

Poland, a subordinate of the European Union since 2004, decided it wasn't going to enactment each of its eggs successful the EU basket. Shortly aft Russia's full-scale penetration of Ukraine successful 2022, the authorities successful Warsaw embarked connected a swift rearmament plan.

Poland is NATO's apical subject spender — aiming to nonstop 4.7 per cent of its gross home merchandise toward defence.

It has tapped into accumulation lines successful some the United States and South Korea.

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Politico past wintertime that his government's strategy was to proceed to bargain from the U.S. successful bid to support economical relations.

"It's benignant of an security policy," helium said.

The determination was made adjacent though politically, and socially, galore successful Poland judge the U.S. is an unreliable state and mightiness not beryllium determination successful a situation with Russia.

It is possibly a acquisition for Canada arsenic the Liberal authorities crosses the treacherous governmental tightrope of inactive maintaining a defence narration with the U.S. and explaining its decisions to a nationalist inactive aggravated astir the commercialized warfare and Trump's 51st authorities desires.

The archetypal trial volition travel aboriginal this summertime erstwhile a study by the Royal Canadian Air Force and the Department of National Defence astir continuing with the F-35 acquisition is presented.

Carney and his squad volition person to determine whether to pivot distant from the program (accept only a constricted fig of the warplanes and fill out the remainder of the bid elsewhere) — oregon instrumentality with what whitethorn beryllium a politically indefensible presumption of carrying on.

The premier curate said astatine the NATO acme that helium had held discussions with European partners for the acquisition of combatant jets and submarines.

Speed vs. shift

Carney has called for a displacement distant from Canada's economical and subject reliance connected the U.S.

But however overmuch of that is genuinely possible, if the stated extremity is to rearm rapidly and if Europe's defence concern basal is inactive successful its ain rebuilding phase?

If the Liberal authorities does mean to determination swiftly, determination are existing mechanisms specified arsenic the National Security Exception (NSE), which allows the authorities to bypass definite commercialized statement obligations erstwhile the instrumentality is deemed indispensable for nationalist security.

There's besides the mechanics of the Urgent Operational Requirement (UOR), which tin beryllium utilized to get indispensable instrumentality connected an accelerated timeline to conscionable a circumstantial and contiguous operational request of the Canadian Armed Forces.

It tin besides usage an Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN), which indicates the Defence Department's volition to grant a declaration to a circumstantial supplier and allows different imaginable suppliers to show what they tin provide.

At the extremity of the NATO summit, Carney was asked if helium intends to usage immoderate of those tools astatine his disposal.

It doesn't dependable similar it.

"The large question. The archetypal happening we look to bash is alteration the machinery of defence procurement, if I tin enactment it that way," helium said referring to the caller defence procurement bureau being acceptable up by his government.

Once the bureau is built, Carney said they'll look to marque "adjustments to our quality to bargain Canadian and our quality to bargain much rapidly arsenic appropriate."