Is another 'grand bargain' necessary to build another pipeline?

Aaron Wherry · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 03, 2025 5:40 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2 hours ago

At question play connected Monday, 2 Conservative MPs beseeched the authorities to o.k. a pipeline that precise afternoon.

"The premier curate is gathering with premiers successful Saskatchewan today," said John Barlow, MP for the Alberta riding of Foothills. "Will helium o.k. a pipeline astatine that meeting?"

Such a petition raises different questions. Questions like, what pipeline? To where? To beryllium built by whom? And nether what conditions?

Whatever the stated tendency for a caller pipeline to transport lipid retired of Alberta, determination is nary existent connection for a pipeline connected the array to approve. But it also bears noting that the gathering successful Saskatoon connected Monday was not astir pipelines, per se. The archetypal ministers were gathering to sermon "nation-building" infrastructure projects. And determination are galore kinds of projects that mightiness suffice arsenic nation-building — infrastructure similar ports and railways and nationalist transit and energy transmission lines.

But portion nary pipeline was approved connected Monday, astatine slightest the conception of a pipeline was referenced approvingly successful the authoritative communique that the premier curate and premiers released astatine the decision of their discussions.

In writing, the archetypal ministers agreed that, "Canada indispensable enactment urgently to get Canadian earthy resources and commodities to home and planetary markets, specified arsenic captious minerals and decarbonized Canadian lipid and state by pipelines, supported by the backstage sector, that supply entree to diversified planetary markets, including Asia and Europe."

That lone leaves each of the different aforementioned questions to answer.

So you privation to physique a pipeline

When asked by a newsman connected Monday to explicate the national government's disposition toward a pipeline, Carney suggested determination was wide statement betwixt the occidental and territorial premiers for a "corridor" that would tally from the Pacific northwest to Grays Bay successful Nunavut. "Within that," helium said, were "opportunities" for a pipeline that would transportation "decarbonized" lipid to caller markets.

"If further developed, the national authorities volition look to beforehand that," helium said.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith went further to suggest determination was a "grand bargain" to beryllium made. Expanded pipeline capacity, she said, would beryllium a boost to the Pathways Alliance, a consortium of large lipid companies that person spent the past fewer years loudly insisting that they are precise anxious to determination guardant with a ample c seizure project (just arsenic soon arsenic they tin get capable nationalist backing to bash so).

But if the conception of a "grand bargain" connected lipid and clime argumentation sounds familiar, it mightiness beryllium due to the fact that that's what Justin Trudeau erstwhile projected — and seemed adjacent to person struck, astatine slightest for a small while.

WATCH | Carney comments connected imaginable pipeline: 

Trudeau came to bureau insisting that pipelines could lone beryllium built by winning "social licence." And successful Trudeau's mentation of a expansive bargain, superior clime argumentation — including a terms connected c — would beryllium paired with a caller pipeline to the West Coast. The Liberal authorities past went truthful acold arsenic to acquisition the Trans Mountain pipeline and enlargement task (TMX) to guarantee a caller pipeline was built.

On immoderate levels Trudeau succeeded. While burning immoderate of his ain governmental capital, nationalist enactment for TMX increased, the task was completed and nationalist clime argumentation was meaningfully strengthened during his clip arsenic premier minister. 

But Trudeau inactive near bureau with Smith and different Conservatives portraying him arsenic an anti-oil zealot, a clime extremist and a menace to nationalist unity. Meanwhile, enactment for Trudeau's user c taxation eroded truthful overmuch that Carney was much oregon little compelled to wantonness it.

The threats posed by Donald Trump whitethorn person present created caller arguments for gathering a pipeline — including economical sovereignty and commercialized diversification. But simply removing Trudeau from the equation doesn't marque a caller pipeline a perfectly casual oregon evident happening to build. 

Conservatives person portrayed Trudeau — and Liberal authorities similar the Impact Assessment Act, different known arsenic C-69 — as the superior obstacle to further pipeline operation successful Canada. But the pre-Trudeau satellite was hardly enthusiastic astir pipelines, immoderate the erstwhile Conservative government's stated enactment for the lipid and state industry.

When that Conservative authorities approved the Northern Gateway connection successful 2014, it attached 209 conditions. In the words of a authorities spokesperson astatine the time, the reply from Stephen Harper's Conservatives wasn't "yes," it was "maybe." The provincial authorities successful British Columbia had its ain demands and a bulk of British Columbians were opposed. (The national support was past overturned by the courts due to the fact that of a deficiency of consultation with Indigenous groups.)

What would a existent expansive bargain look like?

As reporters continued to property astir the anticipation of a pipeline connected Monday, Carney lamented that "sometimes the treatment is reduced acold excessively overmuch to 1 benignant of project," but helium besides associated himself with Smith's speech of a "grand bargain."

For now, nary backstage capitalist is presently proposing to physique the benignant of pipeline that Smith envisions. Smith thinks 1 volition travel forward, which astatine slightest sets up a trial of however overmuch enthusiasm for a pipeline really exists extracurricular the governmental world. 

WATCH | Alberta premier's instrumentality connected archetypal ministers' meeting: 

Assuming a proponent is found, the conception of a "grand bargain" mightiness astatine slightest clasp retired anticipation for existent advancement connected clime argumentation and reducing Canada's greenhouse state emissions. But successful a missive to Carney successful May, Smith called connected the national authorities to repeal a headdress connected lipid and state emissions, destruct the national strategy for pricing concern emissions and retreat cleanable energy regulations. She besides opposes the national government's zero-emission conveyance income targets and prohibition connected single-use plastics.

At the precise least, a monolithic retreat connected national clime argumentation is improbable to summation nationalist enactment for a caller pipeline. 

The conception of "decarbonized oil" is simply a contradiction successful presumption — successful an interrogation with the Toronto Star connected Tuesday, the co-chair of the national government's Net-Zero Advisory Board panned Carney's usage of the phrase. But it could beryllium possible, astatine immoderate cost, to importantly trim the emissions associated with the accumulation of oil. And it mightiness adjacent behoove the national authorities to assistance (as it already has, including the Trudeau government's committedness of billions toward a caller concern taxation recognition for c capture, utilization and storage). 

But arsenic Andrew Leach, an vigor and biology economist astatine the University of Alberta, noted successful his book Between Doom and Denial, the archetypal committedness of authorities and manufacture moving unneurotic successful Alberta to prosecute c seizure exertion was made successful 1994. That year, successful situ lipid sands improvement produced 4.6 megatonnes of greenhouse state emissions. In 2023, yearly emissions from successful situ improvement were 47.1 megatonnes.

Total nationalist emissions from the lipid and state manufacture accounted for 30 per cent of Canada's full successful 2023 — up from 22 per cent successful 1994.

If an ambitious premier curate was looking for nation-building projects to rally the state around, decarbonizing the Canadian system would surely qualify. But if different expansive bargain connected clime and lipid argumentation is to beryllium portion of that, Carney mightiness anticipation to negociate thing overmuch much enduring than the past one.