In wake of U.S. strikes, Iran faces a pivotal choice: dash to build a weapon or negotiate

Hiding cardinal Iranian atomic facilities heavy nether a upland made them that overmuch harder for U.S. and Israeli weapons to reach.   

It volition besides marque it much hard to measure conscionable however palmy the historical U.S. strikes against them overnight Saturday were and more challenging to predict Iran's adjacent steps. 

In his connection moments aft the U.S. onslaught by B-2 bombers and their deep-penetrating astir 14 tonne bombs, U.S. President Donald Trump was unequivocal successful his claim:    

"Iran's cardinal atomic enrichment facilities person been wholly and wholly obliterated," helium said.     

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sounded arsenic conclusive, claiming his committedness to destruct Iran's atomic facilities had been "fulfilled."

Yet, within hours, Iranian officials were giving Reuters quality bureau a conflicting account, claiming that astir of the highly enriched uranium astatine Fordow had been moved elsewhere earlier the attack.  

Fordow is Iran's main tract for enriching uranium, with immoderate of the stockpile determination having been enriched to astir 60 per cent successful the assessment of the International Atomic Energy Agency, charged with monitoring Iran's atomic facilities. Ninety percent enrichment is considered weapons capable.

"The grade of harm wrong the uranium enrichment halls can't beryllium determined with certainty," IAEA manager General Grossi said Sunday of the onslaught connected Fordow.

The sprawling Isfahan site, which had already been struck respective times since Israel's strikes began June 13, besides suffered "extensive further damage" successful the U.S. operation, the bureau said.

The IAEA had reported connected Saturday that the facilities astatine Isfahan bombed by Israel either contained nary atomic worldly oregon tiny quantities of earthy oregon low-enriched uranium, an denotation that the highly enriched uranium mightiness beryllium stored elsewhere.

WATCH | U.S. defence caput comments connected strikes: 

'Extremely terrible harm and destruction'

In his morning-after briefing, General Dan Caine, the caput of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the 3 targeted sites had sustained "extremely terrible harm and destruction," but helium acknowledged a last harm appraisal would instrumentality immoderate time.

He said the cognition was "the largest B-2 operational onslaught successful U.S. history."

But Daria Dolzikova, with the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based subject deliberation tank, said it mightiness not beryllium capable to destruct Iran's atomic program.

"The cardinal world remains that subject enactment unsocial tin lone rotation backmost the programme by degrees, not destruct it fully," she said. 

Given that, Dolzikova says, determination are 2 cardinal questions for some sides to consider: how overmuch harm is capable for the U.S. and Israel to consciousness they person curtailed Iran's atomic programme sufficiently; and arsenic important, what person the strikes done to Iran's resoluteness to velocity up enrichment and perchance make a atomic weapon?

"One happening that I'm looking retired for ... is Iran's aboriginal wrong the atomic non-proliferation pact (NPT) and whether these strikes really person it to perchance propulsion retired of that treaty," Dolzikova told CBC News successful an interview. 

Exiting the NPT would banish IAEA inspectors from Iran and efficaciously nonstop its atomic programme into the shadows. 

The NPT, which went into effect 55 years ago, is aimed astatine stopping the dispersed of atomic weapons portion astatine the aforesaid clip allowing countries to physique atomic programs for peaceful purposes.    

Iran is simply a signatory and arsenic portion of the monitoring provisions, its atomic facilities person been unfastened to the IAEA for inspection. A woody signed successful 2015 known arsenic the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had besides aimed to restrict Iran's atomic capabilities in speech for an easing of economical sanctions but fell isolated aft Trump withdrew the U.S. from it successful his archetypal term.

In its latest study connected Iran earlier this month, the IAEA said it had nary grounds that the authorities was trying to physique a atomic limb but nevertheless declared the state non-compliant for being evasive and failing to relationship for the whereabouts of each of its supplies of enriched uranium. 

It besides said its inspectors had constricted entree to the Fordow installation and that Iran had antecedently removed cameras that were portion of the monitoring process.

When asked astatine a quality league Sunday greeting successful the aftermath of the U.S. attacks if Iran was present going to propulsion retired of the NPT, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi refused to say. 

Sprint for a atomic weapon?

Robert E. Kelly, an American world based in Busan, South Korea, who has studied North Korea's atomic program, says helium fears the U.S. strikes connected the Iranian facilities successful Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz could spur Iran to physique a weaponry faster.

"That's what I'm truly disquieted about, that this is going to profoundly incentivize the atomic hawks successful Iran to sprint for a atomic weapon," Kelly told CBC News. "[They are going to say], 'We should person sprinted for a weaponry 10 years ago. We should've been similar North Korea.'" 

North Korea is present believed to person astir 50 warheads and has repeatedly utilized its atomic capabilities to endanger its neighbours, especially South Korea and Japan.

"The North Korea strategy connected nuclearization has been validated by the strike," Kelly said. "I mean the North Koreans were telling america for 30 years this is precisely wherefore we built atomic weapons, truthful you can't bash these benignant of large aerial attacks against us." 

WATCH | Trump comments connected U.S. strikes against 3 atomic sites successful Iran: 

Notably, the archetypal halt for Iran's overseas curate Sunday was Moscow for a gathering with Russian officials and President Vladimir Putin. Russia, which has the world's largest stockpile of atomic warheads, is simply a large backer of Iran's atomic program.

In an ominous sounding societal media post, the country's erstwhile president Dmitri Medvedev said the U.S. attacks volition person nary lasting interaction connected Iran's atomic ambitions if its leaders take to pursue a weapon.

"A fig of countries are acceptable to straight proviso Iran with their ain atomic warheads," helium wrote, a determination that would beryllium a nonstop usurpation of the Treaty connected the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which Russia is simply a signatory to.

Israel is not a signatory and does posses its ain atomic weapons although it has ne'er acknowledged that publicly.

Immediate decisions

Warning: This conception includes images of radical wounded successful rocket strikes.

Both Iran and Israel volition person to marque contiguous decisions connected whether to proceed the rhythm of strikes and retaliations that person played retired since Israel attacked Iran 9 days ago. 

Within hours of the U.S. strikes, Iran launched 2 ample salvos of ballistic missiles astatine targets successful Israel, with respective impacts successful the Tel Aviv country that injured dozens.

There were nary contiguous indications, however, that immoderate U.S. interests successful the portion were being targeted. 

"Our forces stay connected precocious alert and are afloat postured to respond to immoderate Iranian retaliation oregon proxy attacks, which would beryllium an incredibly mediocre choice," Caine said successful his Sunday morning briefing. "We volition support ourselves."

Iran's Health Ministry has said more than 400 radical person been killed truthful acold successful the speech of rocket strikes betwixt Israel and Iran portion Israeli authorities accidental astatine slightest 24 person been killed. 

Analysts accidental the weakened Islamic authorities successful Tehran faces hard choices successful calibrating its responses truthful arsenic to not invitation further American attacks.   

That could range from Iran doing thing to turning its ample short-range rocket arsenal against U.S. subject bases oregon assets successful the Persian Gulf.  

Its enactment could besides determine to disrupt shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz to cripple the planetary system oregon deed retired astatine the vigor infrastructure of U.S. allies successful the region, including Saudi Arabia oregon the UAE. 

In a bid of societal media posts, Andreas Krieg of the School of Security Studies astatine King's College London, said Iran cannot fto the U.S. strikes spell without a effect astatine it would awesome weakness, which would beryllium unacceptable domestically. 

He says those options see rocket and drone attacks connected U.S. forces successful Iraq but done successful specified a mode arsenic to bounds U.S. casualties and support the imaginable escalation minimal. Iran's proxy militias successful Lebanon and Yemen, Hezbollah and the Houthis, could besides beryllium utilized to harass U.S. positions. Cyber attacks would beryllium different option, Krieg said. 

War of attrition a hazard for Israel

In a briefing Sunday morning, Israeli subject officials indicated that arsenic acold arsenic they are acrophobic the U.S. strikes connected the Iranian atomic facilities are acold from the extremity of the war.

"We person much objectives, and we are acting each the clip to execute them," Brig.-Gen Effie Defrin said successful a property conference. "We volition proceed to enactment to execute these objectives."

But immoderate Israeli analysts accidental without a wide imaginativeness for victory, Netanyahu could beryllium committing Israel to different drawn retired struggle that volition travel astatine an unacceptable outgo to the country.

Israel has been astatine warfare with Hamas in Gaza for much than a twelvemonth and 8 months, with Israeli attacks decimating the territory and sidesplitting adjacent to 56,000 people, according to Gaza wellness officials, with nary extremity successful sight.

"Netanyahu's occupation is that if Trump does not broaden the operation, and Iran doesn't hold to comply with the administration's dictates, Israel could descent into a warfare of attrition with Iran with the U.S. lasting by and refusing Netanyahu's ambitions to grow the campaign," said Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran adept astatine Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. 

"Trump is hoping this onslaught volition propulsion the Iranians backmost to negotiations and judge U.S. demands."

WATCH | 'I don't deliberation helium tin tally away': B.C. pistillate worries astir dada successful Iran: