In a blue-orange election rematch, CPC hopes to steal Winnipeg seat while NDP touts strategic vote

Bartley Kives · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 31, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: March 31

Like galore blue-collar workers successful the eastbound Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, Don Gale grew up successful an NDP family.

Gale is 2 months distant from status aft decades of employment arsenic an electrician with Manitoba Hydro. He present votes Conservative due to the fact that helium believes enactment person Pierre Poilievre cares much astir workers than NDP person Jagmeet Singh.

"In Transcona, a batch of people don't truly look beyond the NDP due to the fact that it was conscionable built into them that they had to ballot NDP. It was successful their families as DNA. People request to deliberation for themselves and what's best," said Gale, sitting successful his surviving country successful Canterbury Park, Winnipeg's easternmost neighbourhood.

Gale intends to ballot for Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds connected April 28 successful Elmwood-Transcona, the lone riding successful Manitoba — and the champion example in Canada — wherever the 2 astir competitory parties person been the Conservatives and NDP.

"I'm a journeyman electrician, truthful we person that successful common," Gale said of Reynolds. "I deliberation he's just a communal blue-collar, hard-working antheral that wants to bash what's champion for Transcona. I deliberation we request to get idiosyncratic successful determination that that has a blimpish background."

Reynolds is successful a rematch in this national predetermination with the NDP's Leila Dance, who won a September 2024 byelection successful Elmwood-Transcona by 1,182 votes.

In that byelection, held to regenerate departed NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, the Liberal campaigner received little than 5 per cent of the vote.

Now, polls suggest fashionable enactment for the NDP has dipped beneath 10 per cent, portion Liberal enactment has skyrocketed.

NDP calls for strategical vote

At the doorstep, Dance is courting Liberal supporters with the message that lone she tin forestall the Conservative Party from winning back a spot it has not held since 2011, erstwhile Stephen Harper led the right-of-centre enactment to a majority.

"When we're reasoning astir keeping the Poilievre Conservatives out, we request to ballot strategically here, specifically successful Elmwood-Transcona," Dance, a erstwhile concern relation director, said past week successful a Transcona cafe.

"The Liberals aren't going to win here. They've come successful third place, historically," she said successful a plea to Liberal voters to engage successful strategical voting, a signifier that often does not payment her enactment successful different ridings.

"Most of them that are pursuing truly intimately cognize that this is simply a strategical ballot and the implications of it if we don't ballot strategically present successful a blue-orange riding."

The debased Liberal enactment successful the 2024 successful Elmwood-Transcona suggests strategical voting is already a Liberal protagonist signifier successful this riding. Now, however, unpopular erstwhile person Justin Trudeau has resigned and immoderate Liberals are invigorated by caller person Mark Carney.

A ballot for riding, not leader

Mike Poitras is 1 of them. The Elmwood-Transcona nonmigratory said helium likes what helium sees from Carney — but intends to ballot for Leila Dance to guarantee the Conservatives don't triumph the seat.

"If I was successful immoderate different riding and Trudeau was inactive leader, I decidedly would not vote. I deliberation he's going to go down arsenic astir apt 1 of the worst premier ministers successful the past of Canada," said Poitras, who was wearing a blue "Canada is not for sale" chapeau popularized by Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

"With Pierre Poilievre, there's conscionable excessively much Trump-like qualities that astatine this constituent I'm not consenting to hazard it. They accidental 'Canada first' but I'm not truly definite about Pierre Poilievre, and I deliberation there's a batch of hard close radical successful his enactment that I'm frightened of, frankly."

Poitras added he knows the NDP "probably don't person a accidental of winning" the predetermination but said helium is voting for Dance alternatively than Liberal campaigner Ian MacIntyre.

"I'm voting for the idiosyncratic successful this riding arsenic opposed to the person of the party," helium said.

The Conservative Party did not respond to CBC News requests for an interrogation with Reynolds.

Keith Poulson, who ran the Conservative run successful Manitoba during the 2021 election, called Reynolds a hard-working campaigner who represents what Transcona is about.

"That's the benignant of idiosyncratic that Conservatives privation and request and I deliberation they're precise fortunate to person him successful presumption of what's what's happening with the NDP," said Poulson, sitting successful a java shop.

The NDP, Poulson said, person recovered themselves mislaid owed to leader Jagmeet Singh's supply-and-confidence statement with Trudeau, which has allowed the Liberals to assertion each caller argumentation portion from that deal, including dental care, arsenic their own.

"What they've done is they've really made themselves a rump enactment to the Liberal Party and and makes them little viable successful this election," Poulson said of the NDP.

The NDP still person their ain supporters successful Elmwood-Transcona. Susan Mather, a retiree, said she remains loyal to the New Democrats even though she is tempted to enactment the Liberals successful bid to support the Conservatives out.

"I was second-guessing myself for that aforesaid reason. But I inactive americium going to springiness them a accidental due to the fact that I deliberation backmost to [former NDP leader] Jack Layton and I emotion that man," Mather said.

The People's Party of Canada is moving Colin Watson arsenic a campaigner successful Elmwood-Transcona. Nominations for the predetermination adjacent connected April 7.