How safe is B.C.'s safe federal Green Party seat?

Chad Pawson · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 08, 2025 8:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago

The Green Party of Canada's flagship national seat, occupied by an award-winning B.C. parliamentarian, could beryllium successful information of being trumped by the tariff and sovereignty contented successful the existent national election.

Talking to voters connected the streets successful the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands — one defined by its earthy oceanside quality and environmentally conscious voters, galore of whom are retirees— doubts are surfacing astir whether existent Green MP Elizabeth May volition triumph again.

"It won't beryllium Green, it won't beryllium NDP," said 1 Saanich nonmigratory to CBC News. "There's a small spot of Conservative here," said another.

WATCH | Saanich-Gulf Islands voters mull candidates amid tariff, sovereignty threat:

The uncertainty is simply a effect of this predetermination having 1 over-reaching contented truthful far. Who betwixt the Liberals and Conservatives tin signifier authorities and champion respond to the economical and sovereignty menace posed to Canada from U.S. President Donald Trump?

• Compare the predetermination promises of Canada's large parties

According to immoderate campaigners, that clouds Elizabeth May's candidacy arsenic she has repeatedly run, and won, connected a committedness of being a locally engaged parliamentarian and an advocator for environmentalism and solutions to clime change.

Will adjacent the astir hardcore Green voters successful the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding ballot to guarantee 1 enactment oregon the different forms a majority?

"Strategic voting … tin termination us," said David Merner, who lives successful Sooke B.C., connected Vancouver Island and was a 2015 Liberal campaigner and past ran for the Greens successful 2019.

"I deliberation Elizabeth May is going to look a existent challenge," helium said. "I deliberation she'll win, but she's successful for a existent battle."

Challenging May is the Liberal's David Beckham, an adept successful biology remediation and renewable energy, the Conservative's Cathie Ounsted, a erstwhile councillor and chairperson of the Victoria Airport Authority Board of Directors and the NDP's Colin Plant, who's been a teacher successful the Saanich School District for 25 years.

How choky is the race?

Some polls amusement May presently moving 3rd down the Conservatives' Ounsted and the Liberals' Beckham, but May's run says polls similar 338canada are misleading due to the fact that they look astatine the past predetermination results, what is trending nationally and past supply an aggregated projection.

"I don't enactment a batch of assurance successful polls," May told CBC News precocious portion campaigning successful Saanich.

"When I was elected present successful 2011, determination wasn't a azygous canvass that thought I had a chance, truthful I relied much connected what I heard connected the thoroughfare erstwhile I'm going doorway to door."

WATCH | What are Elizabeth May's chances of capturing a 5th term?:

May has carved retired a unsocial presumption for herself and her enactment successful the House of Commons, moving crossed enactment lines and framing herself arsenic a almighty dependable holding governments to account.

"In this riding, having Elizabeth's dependable successful Parliament is acold much almighty than having different party's campaigner who is automatically told to toed the enactment line," work a caller communiqué from her campaign. "They are not an autarkic dependable that tin correspond your concerns."

The Greens accidental polling it commissioned has May with 41 per cent of decided voters up of Ounsted with 28 per cent and Beckham with 22 per cent.

CBC News' canvass tracker is presently projecting the Greens to triumph a spot successful British Columbia and successful Ontario, wherever it also presently holds a seat.

• CBC News breaks down where the polls stand.

People who unrecorded and enactment and ballot successful the riding accidental May has been a beardown advocator for Saanich and the Gulf Islands, wherever determination are respective section issues that person national jurisdiction, specified arsenic the anchoring of shipping vessels, the wellness and well-being of slayer whales successful the area, and onshore acquisition for preservation.

'Popular candidate'

"The situation is inactive huge, " said Terry Shepherd astir the priorities of section voters for this election.

Shepherd, who lives connected Pender Island, is presently the seat of the Southern Gulf Islands Neighbourhood House and has committed her clip to galore societal work agencies and assemblage groups.

"May is simply a truly fashionable candidate," said Shepherd. "I deliberation astir radical that I've talked to inactive privation the Green Party to beryllium elected. We bash spot a fewer much Conservative signs astir the island."

Both Shepherd and Jennifer Lannan-Emekoba, who owns Osisi Boutique connected Saltspring Island, said they some person received idiosyncratic assistance from May implicit migration issues — a testament to however engaged locally May is with her constituents.

"I deliberation we request to retrieve each that she's done successful the past," Lannan-Emekoba said. "As constituents, we request to inquire ourselves if immoderate of the different candidates are going to spell to enactment arsenic hard arsenic she intelligibly does."

Other candidates volition person their accidental to person voters like Lannan-Emekoba of that astatine an upcoming all-candidates gathering connected April 19 successful Saanich.