He can't quit him — easily. Why SpaceX could complicate the Trump-Musk split

Billions of dollars mislaid successful authorities contracts. A slew of regulatory headaches. These are conscionable immoderate of the ramifications Elon Musk could look implicit his fallout with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The 2 men whitethorn person personally split, astatine slightest for now. But if Trump is seeking to retaliate against the tech billionaire, severing the narration between Musk's galore companies and the U.S. authorities could beryllium difficult, analysts say.

"I would accidental the president has much cards than Musk does, but it doesn't mean that [Musk] doesn't person any," said Peter Hays, a lecturer of abstraction argumentation and planetary affairs astatine George Washington University's Space Policy Institute.

Both sides person "all kinds of leverage connected each other," added Dan Grazier, senior chap and programme manager astatine the D.C.-based Stimson Center, a think-tank focused connected planetary security.

The nationalist fallout came aft Musk repeatedly criticized Trump's spending bill. Trump yet lashed back, posting on Truth Social that the easiest mode to prevention "Billions and Billion of Dollars" would beryllium to "terminate Elon's Governmental Subsidies and Contracts."

However, those threats might not beryllium truthful elemental to implement.

SpaceX, satellite contracts

SpaceX has $15 cardinal US worthy of contracts from NASA for the company's Falcon 9 rockets and its improvement of the multipurpose Starship rocket system, tapped to onshore NASA astronauts connected the satellite this decade.

The institution has besides been awarded billions of dollars to motorboat astir of the Pentagon's nationalist information satellites into abstraction portion it builds a monolithic spy outer constellation.

That's why, if Trump cancels those contracts, SpaceX would person to earnestly rethink its concern model, Grazier says. 

Musk "needs the authorities to support his institution operating arsenic they are," helium said. 

But the U.S. authorities is also reliant connected SpaceX, helium says. For example, it's the lone U.S. institution susceptible close present of transporting crews to and from the International Space Station, utilizing its four-person Dragon capsules.

"Trump needs Elon Musk successful beauteous overmuch the nonstop aforesaid mode that Elon Musk needs President Trump, as acold arsenic SpaceX goes," Grazier said.

"It's not like the United States has a credible alternative to SpaceX close present arsenic acold arsenic abstraction motorboat goes," helium said. "And the United States needs reliable abstraction motorboat capabilities."

WATCH | Feud explodes into nationalist view:

Tearing up SpaceX contracts would person a immense domino effect crossed a batch of the government's captious functions successful space, according to Clayton Swope, elder chap astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

And those functions are "most intimately centred astir the Pentagon and NASA," helium told Bloomberg News.

But if Trump holds off connected cancelling SpaceX contracts, and is looking for different mode to poke astatine Musk, helium could put the squeeze connected Musk's companies done the government's regulatory agencies, immoderate experts say.

"Those tin each beryllium leverage points for the administration," said Cary Coglianese, manager of the University of Pennsylvania's Penn programme connected regulation.

Last year, Musk was waging astatine slightest 11 abstracted regulatory oregon ineligible battles with the Biden medication oregon autarkic national agencies related to his concern empire, according to NBC News. This mightiness person been why, successful part, Musk yet endorsed Trump, who had pledged during the statesmanlike run to slash regulations.

WATCH | How the feud started:

Yet Trump could present unit those aforesaid agencies to marque Musk's beingness difficult. Just immoderate of the regulators Musk's concern empire indispensable woody with see the Federal Communications Commission for his satellite internet service Starlink, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for Tesla, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for SpaceX.

The FAA, nether unit from Trump, oregon to curry his favour, could accidental it's not going to o.k. immoderate SpaceX motorboat permits, says Roger Nober, manager of the Regulatory Studies Center, besides astatine George Washington University.

For Tesla, for example, Trump could pressure regulators to contradict indispensable approvals of its autonomous driving program, oregon could renew investigations into the information of its afloat self-driving software, immoderate analysts told ABC News.

"If afloat self-driving were to beryllium invalidated, that would beryllium a immense deed to Tesla banal and to Musk," Gordon Johnson, CEO and laminitis of the information steadfast GLJ Research, told ABC.

Although the courts shouldn't tolerate specified actions if they are shown to beryllium vindictive, the president wouldn't necessarily request a "litigation-proof strategy to truly messiness up" Musk's life, Coglianese said.

It could inactive beryllium "very achy and problematic" for Musk, portion courts sorted out the issues, helium said.

"And if Musk's operations get delayed oregon disrupted, that tin mean existent money."

Nober says helium believes that immoderate lasting regulatory change against Musk's companies would beryllium hard to implement, fixed his precise nationalist spat with Trump and that the president said he's going to punish his one-time friend. 

"If they past initiate regulatory enactment that's intended punish immoderate of Musk's business… it's going to beryllium susceptible to situation connected the mentation that it was arbitrary," helium said.

However, determination whitethorn beryllium different insignificant administrative regulatory roadblocks that government agencies could enforce connected Musk that would be hard to situation successful court, Nober says.

"They tin marque beingness difficult" for Musk, he said.

On Thursday, amid their warfare of words, shares of Tesla plunged much than 14 per cent, leaving $150 cardinal US of the electrical automaker's worth erased by the extremity of trading day.

The plunge was astir apt due to the fact that Tesla, similar a batch of Musk's companies, have a batch of small things they woody with, with a batch of regulatory bodies, Nober says.

"Just making those much difficult, oregon slowing them down, oregon reviewing them, oregon taking longer to crook things around, has a cumulative impact," helium said.