Forecast for the next 5 years? Record-breakingly hot, UN weather agency says

Thomson Reuters

· Posted: May 28, 2025 10:52 AM EDT | Last Updated: 1 hr ago

There's a very high accidental that 1 of the adjacent 5 years volition acceptable a caller vigor record. It's besides precise apt that the adjacent 5 years volition spot mean temperatures supra the little bounds successful the Paris Agreement connected clime change, the UN upwind bureau forecasts. And the Arctic is warming astatine much than triple the planetary mean rate.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday that this would each substance much utmost weather.

"Every further fraction of a grade of warming drives much harmful heatwaves, utmost rainfall events, aggravated droughts, melting of crystal sheets, oversea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising oversea levels," it said successful a statement.

From this twelvemonth until the extremity of 2029, the mean near-surface somesthesia globally is forecast to beryllium betwixt 1.2 C and 1.9 C higher than pre-industrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said successful a caller report.

WATCH | 2024 'virtually certain' to beryllium warmest twelvemonth connected record:

There is an 80 per cent chance that astatine slightest 1 of the adjacent 5 years volition spot grounds heat, and a 70 per cent likelihood that mean warming volition transcend 1.5 degrees Celsius supra pre-industrial levels.

Last year, the hottest twelvemonth connected record, the WMO reported the first breach of the little 2015 Paris clime statement target, which committed countries to "pursue efforts" to limit global warming to 1.5 C, portion "holding the summation successful the planetary mean somesthesia to good beneath 2 C supra pre-industrial levels." However, those targets are based connected 20-year mean temperatures. That means the measured and forecast temperatures bash not yet officially breach the lower bounds of the Paris Agreement.

What the Arctic and Amazon tin expect

In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming volition accelerate crystal melt successful the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean.

The WMO study said Arctic warming was predicted to beryllium much than three-and-a-half times the planetary average, astatine 2.4 C supra the mean somesthesia during the astir caller 30-year baseline play implicit the adjacent 5 winters.

WATCH | 2027: the twelvemonth with nary oversea ice?

Overall planetary temperatures volition stay astatine oregon adjacent grounds levels until the extremity of the decade, the report said.

Above-average rainfall is forecast successful parts of the world, including the Sahel, bluish Europe, Alaska and bluish Siberia, for the months betwixt May and September betwixt 2025 and 2029, portion drier-than-average conditions are foreseen this play implicit the Amazon, according to the upwind agency.