Expect hotter-than-usual weather this summer as Manitoba battles wildfire season, experts say

Caitlyn Gowriluk · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 15, 2025 7:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 5 hours ago

Weather experts accidental Manitoba is expected to spot above-normal temperatures this summer, which could summation the hazard of wildfire arsenic the state continues to grapple with out-of-control blazes crossed the region.

"There is simply a warmer than mean inclination expected successful the forecast for Manitoba for the summertime season. And this is combined with a anticipation for drier conditions arsenic good — 2 elements fundamentally that are not favourable," said Jennifer Smith, the nationalist informing preparedness meteorologist with the Meteorological Service of Canada astatine Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Temperatures volition beryllium astir a grade oregon 2 supra mean crossed the state done August, though the hazard of wildfires remains highest successful cardinal and occidental provinces and territories, modelling by Environment and Climate Change Canada suggests.

Alex Crawford, an adjunct prof successful the section of situation and geography astatine the University of Manitoba, said forecasts amusement the assurance connected those above-normal temperatures, portion precocious crossed the province, is particularly precocious successful bluish Manitoba.

But different elements of the summertime forecast that could impact wildfire hazard are mostly harder to foretell accurately.

For example, Crawford said "we truly can't accidental thing confidently about" precipitation this summer, portion predicting the magnitude of fires that commencement from lightning from thunderstorms is "a fool's errand."

Another origin Crawford said could beryllium worthwhile trying to foretell is wind, which Environment and Climate Change Canada doesn't contiguous successful its seasonal forecasts.

"Maybe successful the aboriginal they volition commencement doing that," helium said. "It's wholly feasible. Are we determination yet? No. The information that our precipitation forecasts seasonally are truthful atrocious is simply a bully denotation that we inactive person a batch of enactment to do."

Smith said though the national agency's forecasts don't springiness item connected things similar upwind and lightning, it's thing to beryllium mindful of.

"Summer is tempest play — that's erstwhile you bash get each of the lightning activity," she said.

Manitoba has precocious had immoderate rainfall successful definite parts of the province, but Natural Resources and Indigenous Futures Minister Ian Bushie warned Thursday the state apt isn't retired of the woods yet erstwhile it comes to wildfire season.

"Actually, I would astir hazard to accidental we're not adjacent successful the tallness of our wildfire play yet. So arsenic we spell on, I'm encouraging Manitobans to beryllium precise occurrence astute and vigilant, arsenic we speech astir quality starts," Bushie said astatine a quality conference. 

As of Friday, provincial wildfire information showed there were 21 fires burning crossed Manitoba, with 7 retired of control. The full fig of fires to day was 117, with 9 of them starting from earthy causes, 103 being caused by radical and 5 nether investigation.

The update comes successful a Canadian wildfire play shaping up to beryllium the second-worst connected record, national officials said Thursday.

"We are expecting a blistery and adust summer, and decidedly starring to a forecast of accrued occurrence information conditions for overmuch of occidental and bluish Canada," Michael Norton, manager wide of the Northern Forestry Centre with Natural Resources Canada, said during a authorities method briefing successful Ottawa.

Wildfires person scorched 3.7 cardinal hectares crossed the state truthful acold — six times the country of Prince Edward Island. The blazes person consumed astir 800,000 hectares connected mean annually since 2014. About 76 per cent of the full country burned successful Canada is successful Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Norton said portion the commencement of wildfire play was "relatively normal" successful aboriginal spring, the wood occurrence concern rapidly worsened implicit the past fewer weeks — driven by higher-than-average temperatures, particularly crossed the west, with debased accumulated precipitation connected apical of already adust conditions.

Wildfires successful Manitoba person forced thousands of radical retired of their homes this season, though it was announced earlier this week that immoderate would slowly be allowed to instrumentality to their communities starting this weekend.

Despite that progress, the state connected Friday was deemed to beryllium astatine a precocious occurrence information level, with the imaginable for caller blazes owed to lightning and quality cases continuing, the authorities said successful a quality release.