Close races, Trump and 2-party support: Political scientists react to federal election results

Hannah Rudderham · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 29, 2025 10:16 AM EDT | Last Updated: 3 minutes ago

The adjacent contention successful Miramichi-Grand Lake suggests wherefore it inactive wasn't known Tuesday greeting whether Mark Carney's Liberals volition return to powerfulness successful Ottawa arsenic a number oregon a bulk government, a New Brunswick governmental idiosyncratic says.

Liberal Lisa Harris conceded to Conservative Mike Dawson aft midnight Monday, aft the pb flipped backmost and distant passim vote-counting, but determination is inactive 1 canvass to beryllium counted. Polls are inactive beryllium counted elsewhere successful Canada arsenic well. 

"On the weekend, I was successful Saint John, and I told a fig of people, I said, 'if Wayne Long wins, it's a Liberal minority, if Lisa Harris [also] wins, it's a Liberal majority,' and it mightiness travel down to that," governmental idiosyncratic Jamie Gillies of St. Thomas University said Tuesday morning.

"You instrumentality 4 oregon 5 ridings crossed the state and displacement astir 900 to 1,000 votes, and the Liberals astir apt person a majority," helium said. "They whitethorn inactive propulsion retired a majority, but they're that adjacent to it. That riding, I think, astir apt conscionable slipped distant for the Liberals past night."

Long, successful Saint John–Kennebecasis was 1 of six Liberals who won successful New Brunswick. The Conservatives took the different 4 seat

Gillies, the caput of the communications and nationalist argumentation programme astatine STU, said helium got a full of 2 hours of slumber passim the night, arsenic helium followed the results closely.  

WATCH | A look crossed an unchanged map: 

In New Brunswick, helium said, the astir astonishing happening to him was the enactment for Long, who was the first Liberal MP to telephone for an progressively unpopular Justin Trudeau to resign. Lolng won a 4th mandate, aft changing his caput astir not moving again.

"This is his strongest predetermination triumph of his four," said Gillies.

He thinks this could beryllium partially attributed to the tariff issue.

"I deliberation Saint John is astir apt precise important to what Carney wants to bash successful presumption of however the caller Liberal authorities mightiness woody with immoderate of the economical challenges coming from the United States."

Another happening Gillies recovered absorbing was the ballot stock successful the Fredericton-Oromocto riding, which was primitively expected to beryllium close.

Liberal David Myles captured 61.3 per cent of the vote. Conservative Brian MacDonald got 32.1 per cent.

"David Myles really had a higher ballot stock successful Fredericton than Dominic LeBlanc had successful Beauséjour, which is often considered the safest Liberal riding successful the country."

There are inactive rather a fewer ridings successful Canada to beryllium called arsenic of Tuesday morning, and Alex Marland, the Jarislowsky seat successful spot and governmental enactment astatine Acadia University successful Nova Scotia, said his knowing is that a fig of the ballots inactive near to beryllium counted are mail-ins.

He said mail-in ballots would astir apt skew Liberal, truthful it raises immoderate questions astir whether immoderate truly choky races could extremity up flipping and giving the Liberals a majority.

"Regardless of whether they extremity up with a bulk oregon a minority, it's going to beryllium very, precise close, and this is going to beryllium a precise divisive parliament," said Marland.

Marland and immoderate different governmental scientists said passim the predetermination run that 1 contented that would beryllium apical of caput for voters was going to beryllium U.S. President Donald Trump and Canada's narration with its neighbour.

Marland said this perfectly had an effect connected however the results played retired past night.

"It truly galvanized progressives, radical connected the governmental left," helium said.

"You tin spot the illness of the NDP vote. A large crushed for radical who would person voted NDP ending up voting Liberal was truly due to the fact that of fearfulness implicit Donald Trump."

For Gabriel Arsenault, a governmental subject prof astatine the Université de Moncton, that displacement adjacent further toward a two-party strategy was what impressed him the most.

In December, helium said, the Liberals and Conservatives were getting astir 65 per cent of volition votes versus 85 per cent astatine this point.

It volition beryllium a pugnacious mode guardant for the NDP, said Arsenault.

"What happened is structural," helium said. "[Pierre] Poilievre sought votes among workers, and usually that would beryllium the main radical wherever the NDP got its votes, truthful I deliberation it has to alteration itself."

The Green Party secured 1 spot — for its co-leader Elizabeth May — down from 2 seats successful 2021 and 3 seats successful 2019.

It's conscionable different effect that proved to Arsenault that the enactment strategy successful Canada is changing.

"We'll person to spot if this is conscionable impermanent due to the fact that of Trump, oregon [if] this is illustrative of a bigger inclination here."