Carney and Poilievre are fighting an election that's about both change and stability

Aaron Wherry · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 15, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago

According to survey information released past week by Pollara, Canadians are evenly divided connected whether they privation this national predetermination to effect successful "change" oregon "stability" — 46 per cent of Canadians privation alteration and 45 per cent privation stability.

Among those who privation change, 47 per cent accidental Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would champion present that change, portion 20 per cent said Liberal Leader Mark Carney would. But among those who privation stability, 66 per cent accidental Carney would champion present it, portion 18 per cent said Poilievre. (Dan Arnold, Pollara's main strategy officer, was manager of probe for the Trudeau authorities from 2015 to 2021.)

Such numbers mightiness talk to 1 of the cardinal divides of this predetermination — and explicate wherefore Carney's Liberals person staked retired a pb with 2 weeks to go.

Poilievre has been promising alteration for much than 2 years and it is inactive the cardinal taxable of his campaign. At a rally successful Windsor, Ont., past week, helium utilized the connection 30 times.

Poilievre's cardinal premise is that alteration is indispensable — that immoderate ails the state and frustrates voters tin beryllium blamed connected the policies of Justin Trudeau's Liberal government. And astatine slightest while Trudeau was inactive premier minister, Poilievre's statement seemed to beryllium winning.

In Poilievre's telling, ostentation and the outgo of lodging were the responsibility of spending by the Liberal government. The national c taxation is to blasted for the terms of groceries, burdensome regulations are to blasted for sluggish economical growth, harm-reduction policies are to blasted for the opioid situation and Liberal justness reforms are to blasted for higher transgression rates. (Each of these premises could beryllium debated.)

Poilievre hasn't talked similar idiosyncratic who wants to simply set national argumentation — he has tally arsenic an unabashed blimpish counterpoint to Trudeau's progressivism. He wants to chopped taxes, chopped spending, chopped regularisation and constrictive the national government's focus. In summation to "axing" the user c tax, helium besides wants to destruct overmuch of the Liberal government's docket connected clime change. 

WATCH | Poilievre and Carney marque their pitches connected fashionable French speech show: 

Beyond that, Poilievre has besides tally arsenic a populist disrupter. He opposes "woke" civilization and has vowed to instrumentality connected the "elites" and "fire" the "gatekeepers" that are allegedly holding Canadians back. He embraced the "Freedom Convoy" and cryptocurrencies. He promised to occurrence the politician of the Bank of Canada and said his furniture ministers volition beryllium banned from attending the World Economic Forum. He has publically singled retired mayors for criticism and said helium would withhold national funds from municipalities that don't physique capable homes. 

On Monday, helium repeated his committedness to usage the notwithstanding clause to override a judicial ruling — which would beryllium the archetypal usage of the clause astatine the national level successful the 43-year past of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Poilievre was promising change, past everything changed

At slightest portion Trudeau was inactive premier minister, Poilievre's committedness of alteration seemed to clasp commanding appeal. On Jan. 6, erstwhile Trudeau announced his volition to resign, Poilievre's Conservatives were polling astatine 44 per cent — 24 points up of the Liberal Party.  

Three large things person changed since then. Carney has replaced Trudeau, Donald Trump has returned to the White House and, possibly arsenic a consequence, the Conservatives person gone from starring by 24 points to trailing by six.

Carney has besides talked astir alteration — the connection appeared a twelve times successful his acceptance code erstwhile helium became Liberal person past month.

When it comes to responding to the menace posed by Trump, Carney says Canada needs to make "big" changes — astir precocious helium has suggested that Canada's narration with the United States indispensable change. More immediately, helium has signalled circumstantial changes successful however helium would govern. He cancelled the c taxation and scrapped changes to the superior gains tax. He says he would absorption much intently connected macroeconomic issues and bring greater fiscal subject to the national government. 

But the caller Liberal person is besides not vowing to wholly reverse course. With the objection of the c tax, Carney seems broadly committed to combating clime change. And helium seems to judge the national authorities tin play an progressive relation successful addressing problems similar housing.

The Conservatives reason that Carney won't truly bring astir alteration — that helium is surrounded by galore of the aforesaid Liberals who served successful Trudeau's furniture and that Carney won't bash immoderate amended than his predecessor.

But it besides hasn't been wholly wide however overmuch alteration the mean Canadian really wants.

WATCH | What bash Poilievre's ample rallies accidental astir his campaign?: 

Polling conducted by Abacus Data successful January showed that a bulk of Canadians wanted the national c taxation eliminated, but a bulk also wanted to spot the dental attraction and pharmacare programs maintained. Earlier polling by Abacus successful 2023 showed that conscionable 25 per cent of Canadians wanted the national authorities to extremity backing for kid care. And 77 per cent of Canadians deliberation a Poilievre authorities should instrumentality clime alteration seriously.

In the aftermath of Trudeau's departure and Trump's return, enactment for the Conservative Party dropped by six points. But astatine 37.8 per cent, the Conservatives remain nearly 4 points supra what they received successful the 2021 election. 

More crucially, NDP enactment has fallen by much than 10 points and the Bloc Québécois has shed 3 points. So portion Poilievre maintains a coagulated basal of support, the non-Conservative ballot has efficaciously galvanized down Carney — driven possibly by a fearfulness of Trump, concerns astir however Poilievre would govern or immoderate operation thereof.

Trumpism is the astir disruptive unit Canada has dealt with since the Second World War and possibly rivalled lone by the sovereignty question successful Quebec. And successful this infinitesimal it apt does not assistance Poilievre that he sounds similar a subordinate of the extended populist family. It would besides beryllium understandable if, successful the midst of a crisis, Canadians are present looking arsenic overmuch for stableness arsenic they mightiness beryllium seeking change after 9 years of Trudeau.

Since entering authorities 2 months ago, Carney has held himself retired arsenic a root of stableness — touting his acquisition arsenic a cardinal banker and proudly describing himself arsenic a "pragmatist." Having framed himself arsenic a disrupter, Poilievre is not successful a large presumption to connection himself arsenic a root of reassurance. His counterargument, instead, is that his docket volition permission Canada successful a stronger presumption — and that Carney, either due to the fact that he's a Liberal oregon due to the fact that of his enactment successful the backstage sector, can't beryllium trusted.

In different words, Poilievre's argument remains the request for change. And it mightiness beryllium indisputable that some amount of alteration is necessary. But the adjacent 2 weeks mightiness beryllium about what premix of alteration and stableness Canadians privation — and who they judge tin present it.

Pollara conducted its survey from April 4 through April 9. The illustration size was 732 respondents who were interviewed via a operation of unrecorded interviews and online panels. The wide borderline of mistake is +/- 3.6 per cent, 19 times retired of 20. For the cited sub-samples, the borderline is +/- 5.4 per cent, 19 times retired of 20.