Canada-U.S. trade war could lead to lower beef prices north of border: Sask. economist

Dayne Patterson · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 06, 2025 3:32 PM EST | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

Saskatchewan's livestock manufacture is profoundly intertwined with the U.S., and portion American tariffs person erstwhile again been enactment connected pause, immoderate tariffs that bash extremity up being implemented could thrust beef prices up successful the U.S. and down successful Canada, according to an economist.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday helium is again pausing his tariffs connected immoderate Canadian goods, offering the state yet different astir month-long reprieve from a punishing 25 per cent levy. It's not yet wide however the announcement volition affect Canada's initial retaliatory tariffs, but they did not see unrecorded cows oregon beef.

Saskatchewan Minister of Trade and Export Development Warren Kaeding said helium spoke with grower groups and different organizations successful Minnesota, who told him cattle tin determination backmost and distant implicit the Canada-U.S. border multiple times over the people of their lives.

There are ample packing plants successful Canada, Kaeding said, but they "also beryllium connected unrecorded cattle that travel from Nebraska, from Iowa, from, you know, crossed the American Midwest."

"Ultimately, those industries besides beryllium connected unrecorded cattle coming backmost crossed the border."

Stuart Smyth, an cultivation and assets economics prof astatine the University of Saskatchewan, said the intertwined proviso concatenation could commencement to interruption nether tariffs.

Some American purchasers mightiness take not to root Canadian beef nether a 25 per cent tariff, oregon standard backmost their purchases.

That could person effects connected some sides of the border. If Americans take to proceed processing the Canadian beef contempt the tariffs, the outgo of those tariffs volition origin prices to emergence successful the U.S., Smyth said. Conversely, if Americans take to bid little Canadian beef, the reduced proviso would besides propulsion up prices southbound of the border.

"Either way, it's going to effect successful higher beef prices for Americans," Smyth said.

LISTEN | How volition tariffs impact Saskatchewan: 

Meanwhile, successful Canada, more available product could trim the outgo of beef, Smyth said. This could beryllium bully for consumers, but harmful for producers who would person to woody with much banal — arsenic they enactment toward caller markets — and little returns connected their animals.

Other countries could besides instrumentality vantage of Canada's strained narration with the United States and negociate for little prices, further hurting producers.

Smyth said harvest proviso chains person experience with atrocious quality (like harvest failures), but the uncertainty from the on-again, off-again tariffs makes it hard for farmers to adapt.

"If this is simply a train, it's a big, long, accelerated moving bid and it would instrumentality months to marque a pivot," helium said.

"Farmers person been purchasing effect and fertilizer and different inputs, arsenic we're conscionable connected apical of seeding here, truthful they're precise improbable to beryllium capable to marque immoderate benignant of a modulation distant from what they've already laid currency retired for."