Canada's allies are wondering if they can still shelter under the U.S. nuclear umbrella

Murray Brewster · CBC News

· Posted: May 07, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

Gone, it seems, are the days erstwhile the operation "going nuclear" was meant figuratively.

Since the opening of the twelvemonth and the inauguration of the 2nd Trump administration, an expanding fig of Washington's closest allies person begun to propulsion quiescent — and sometimes not truthful quiescent — fits astir whether they tin inactive number connected the decades-old atomic deterrent capableness of the United States.

Few places consciousness that uncertainty much keenly than South Korea.

Faced with an erratic, often hostile, nuclear-armed neighbour successful North Korea's Kim Jong-un, it astir apt shouldn't beryllium astonishing that caller polling has shown astir three-quarters successful the antiauthoritarian southbound are successful favour of their state acquiring atomic weapons.

While the conception of Canada acquiring atomic weapons to defender its sovereignty is highly distant and obscurity connected the nationalist argumentation radar, immoderate of the country's cardinal allies are actively debating what mightiness person seemed unthinkable a fewer years ago.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said successful aboriginal March that his state was looking astatine gaining entree to atomic arms — much than apt done negotiated information guarantees with France.

South Korea, which is successful the midst of a statesmanlike predetermination campaign, doesn't person the luxury of a adjacent nuclear-armed alternate to the U.S.

"As of close now, South Korea is afloat reliant connected an extended deterrence provided by the United States," said Ban Kil Joo, a erstwhile South Korean naval officer, astatine the Korea National Diplomatic Academy successful Seoul.

Change successful North Korean posture

Aside from Washington's mercurial attack to allies, the Korean republic has different reasons to beryllium edgy.

Russia and North Korea person signed a strategical concern that Seoul is disquieted includes high-tech transfers that could beryllium utilized successful rocket technology. And North Korean troops are gaining captious battlefield acquisition warring alongside Russian soldiers against Ukraine.

More importantly though, Ban said, Pyongyang softly changed its atomic posture recently, and that means its weapons are nary longer purely defensive.

The U.S. and South Korea co-operate to incorporate North Korea done a bilateral statement known arsenic the Nuclear Consultative Group, which meets doubly a twelvemonth astatine the level of elder officials, including defence, subject and intelligence.

Ban said his state would not simply and unilaterally statesman pursuing atomic weapons and he's personally doubtful it would beryllium a omniscient policy, regardless.

While "all options would inactive request to beryllium connected the table," Ban said, "I don't deliberation atomic is an enactment [to pursue] — oregon beryllium selected arsenic an eligible oregon applicable argumentation successful the government."

The tremendous outgo of maintaining a atomic arsenal is 1 drawback, but Ban said his state doesn't privation to spell down that roadworthy and doesn't similar the planetary connection it sends successful presumption of atomic non-proliferation.

"It is not a bully motion oregon not a rational behavior, if South Korea is conscionable going to marque atomic weapons without immoderate negotiation," helium said.

Having said that, South Korea has not yet signed oregon ratified the Treaty connected the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

That is apt a calculated strategy connected the portion of the authorities successful Seoul.

Ban said diplomacy needs to beryllium beforehand and centre.

"If the United States is consenting to supply an upgraded atomic deterrence to deter immoderate benignant of North Korea's atomic threat, determination is nary crushed for South Korea to beryllium equipped with atomic weapons," helium said.

Even still, the conception of acquiring atomic weapons does person governmental traction successful Seoul.

Former president Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed from bureau past period by the country's law tribunal aft a failed effort to state martial law, openly endorsed the idea.

Yoo Yong-won, a subordinate of Yoon's blimpish People Power Party (PPP), launched an inaugural successful the National Assembly known arsenic the Mugunghwa Forum, which aims to boost enactment for laying the groundwork to rapidly spell atomic should the request arise.

In negotiations with Washington, overmuch would beryllium connected the demands the Trump medication places connected South Korea.

Like Canada, the archetypal iteration of Donald Trump's presidency saw demands that Seoul enarthrosis much of the load and outgo of its defence.

The authorities did rise defence spending, but not arsenic overmuch arsenic Trump wanted, South Korea's lawman defence curate Hyunki Cho told CBC News successful a caller interview.

Talks person resumed.

"I'm constricted successful what I tin say," Cho said. "We are presently successful the process of going done these negotiations, but I deliberation I tin accidental that I americium beauteous assured that President Trump volition afloat see what we person done frankincense acold arsenic good arsenic the presumption the Korean Peninsula has successful the Indo-Pacific region."

At this constituent successful the discussion, Cho said, the U.S. "has not explicitly asked" South Korea to summation defence spending. The state allocates astir $50 cardinal annually — oregon 2.8 per cent of its gross home merchandise — to defence.

Researchers astatine the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies precocious noted that the Trump medication has remained soundless astir whether the U.S. atomic deterrent is successful question.

Much of the uncertainty is driven by Trump's threats not to support allies that don't conscionable his expectations and spending threshold.

Oddly enough, this is wherever Canada enters into the speech successful South Korea, which has watched the U.S. annexation bluster and economical bullying with a substance of dismay and alarm.

The taunts to Canadian sovereignty are origin for concern, elder officials — astatine defence and the overseas ministries successful Seoul — told CBC News during inheritance briefings.

The consciousness they get is if Canada tin beryllium thrown implicit the side, what does that mean for them and — what bash they bash astir it?