Canada election: Polls now closed across most of the country

Polls person present closed from Quebec to Alberta

How does CBC marque projections for who wins connected predetermination night?

A enactment conscionable earlier we spot a ample fig of polls close.

Tonight, you volition see, perceive oregon work thing crossed our sum on the lines of, “The CBC News Decision Desk is acceptable to marque a projection.” That means our squad of experienced journalists has seen capable votes counted to confidently task an result connected aerial and online earlier the results are final.

CBC doesn’t “elect” a victor oregon “declare” a victor due to the fact that it’s Canadian voters who choose, not us.

The CBC News/Radio-Canada Decision Desk consists of 2 parts. The archetypal is simply a squad of journalists assigned to marque projections successful idiosyncratic ridings. A second, smaller squad examines the totality of results arsenic they travel successful to task which enactment volition signifier the government, arsenic good arsenic the Official Opposition.

Each Decision Desk exertion studies riding histories, demographics, bound changes and the candidates — and keeps way of the run connected a section level. When capable votes person been counted and the exertion and the squad consciousness confident, we marque our last checks and marque a projection.

This is not a race, since there’s nary constituent successful being archetypal erstwhile you’re wrong. We instrumentality the clip needed to get it right. When a contention is excessively adjacent to call, our squad waits for last results.

Could toss-up ridings similar Calgary Centre determine this election?

I’m implicit successful Calgary Centre — conscionable blocks from the Saddledome, location of the Calgary Flames. It is besides wherever Conservative incumbent Greg McLean is looking to triumph for a 3rd time.

But similar the Flames trying to get into the playoffs, McLean is facing a pugnacious situation from Liberal campaigner Lindsay Luhnau this clip out.

The contention present is expected to beryllium 1 of the tightest successful Calgary, wherever a fistful of seats are expected to beryllium successful play successful this accepted Conservative stronghold.

Showdown successful Calgary Confederation

I'm successful the riding of Calgary Confederation astatine the predetermination nighttime enactment for Liberal campaigner Corey Hogan.

It's held astatine a barroom successful northwest Calgary with tons of games, including a elephantine instrumentality akin to the 1 connected The Price is Right. I'll beryllium showcasing this showdown, which is 1 of a tiny fistful of competitory races successful Alberta.

There is nary incumbent, but the Conservatives person won this spot ever since the riding was created earlier the 2015 election. Conservative campaigner Jeremy Nixon is simply a erstwhile provincial furniture curate with the UCP and MLA successful Calgary.

Alberta pollster Janet Brown has pointed to this riding arsenic a bellwether for whether the Liberals could signifier a imaginable bulk oregon number government.

Collapsing NDP ballot successful Atlantic Canada

The NDP was not expected to beryllium competitory successful Atlantic Canada, but their ballot stock truthful acold shows immoderate concerning developments.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the NDP ballot stock is down 12.1 per cent compared to 2021 redistributed results.

The numbers from P.E.I. and New Brunswick are better, but not great. The enactment is down 6.6 per cent successful P.E.I. and 8.9 per cent successful New Brunswick.

The worst quality is from Nova Scotia. The NDP is down 16.6 per cent astatine the moment.

Liberal backbencher who called for Trudeau’s resignation projected to win

The CBC Decision Desk has projected Wayne Long volition beryllium re-elected successful the New Brunswick riding of Saint John-Kennebecasis.

A large cheer went up erstwhile the telephone was made present astatine O'Leary's, an Irish pub wherever supporters are watching the results.

Long said 2 things changed the dynamic of the section race: Justin Trudeau's January determination to resign, and the tariff menace from the U.S. At the moment, Long is doing amended than helium did successful the 2021 election.

Elections Canada website moving again

Earlier, the Elections Canada website was down for immoderate users — specifically the leafage wherever you tin usage your postal codification to look up accusation astir your riding.

The bureau has confirmed that the tract is moving again. You tin usage it to find retired which presumption to ballot astatine if you haven’t formed your ballot yet.

Dominic LeBlanc projected for re-election

Dominic LeBlanc, the Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs, is projected to beryllium re-elected successful his New Brunswick riding, Beausejour.

The minister, speaking connected CBC’s predetermination nighttime special, said helium thinks his enactment “can perfectly decorativeness with a Liberty bulk authorities … but we person to hold for the votes to beryllium counted.”

Electoral betterment and 'vote efficiency'

Former B.C. NDP MP Randall Garrison, 1 of CBC News's predetermination panelists, brought up the contented of electoral betterment — which was not discussed overmuch during this predetermination campaign.

But it was a committedness Trudeau ran on, but ne'er implemented.

"Most precocious democracies person moved to proportional representation, wherever each ballot really counts toward getting representation," Garrison said.

Canada's electoral strategy is simply a first-past-the-post system.

"If we had had a alteration to that … we wouldn't beryllium having these arcane discussions astir ballot ratio and different things. We'd beryllium talking astir what radical really wanted being reflected successful Parliament," Garrison said.

The Liberals and Conservatives person dominated fashionable ballot polls — starring to discussions astir different parties, including the NDP, Bloc Québécois and Greens, losing enactment owed to radical voting strategically.

There person besides been discussions astir however Conservative support, according to polls, appeared concentrated successful occidental Canada for overmuch of the campaign.

We'll spot aboriginal contiguous however it each translates into spot counts.

The uncertainty of beforehand votes

As we look astatine results rotation in, it’s intolerable to accidental whether those results see beforehand votes. That means it is precise hard to foretell however beforehand votes could interaction last results, peculiarly successful choky races.

Every polling spot has 1 of 2 options erstwhile it comes to beforehand ballots: they tin either number them earlier polls close, oregon they tin number them astatine the extremity of the nighttime aft predetermination time votes are tabulated.

As CBC’s David Cochrane mentioned, some the Liberal and Conservative campaigns person said the beforehand ballot connected the East Coast favoured the Liberals. With the existent numbers from the portion looking comparatively favourable for the Conservatives, the Liberal run is apt hoping the beforehand turnout helps them retired arsenic the nighttime goes on.