Campaigns not polls will decide federal election, former northern Ontario politicians say

Faith Greco · CBC News

· Posted: Mar 25, 2025 2:12 PM EDT | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

Two erstwhile politicians and 1 soon-to-be erstwhile person from crossed bluish Ontario, and crossed the governmental spectrum, are cautioning against speechmaking excessively overmuch into aboriginal polling numbers as Canadians march toward the April 28 national election.

Instead they accidental the existent conflict volition play retired connected the ground — done door-knocking, elector engagement and issue-focused campaigning.

"Obviously, numbers are are good, but you know, successful 2008 and 2011 and 2014 I had polling numbers telling maine I was going to lose, and I won. And past successful 2018 the polling numbers said I had a accidental to win, and I lost," said Glenn Thibeault, who served arsenic some Sudbury MP representing the national NDP, and past arsenic Liberal MPP astatine Queen's Park. 

"Polling numbers — instrumentality them with a atom of salt, due to the fact that astatine the extremity of the day, what you request to bash is person hard work."

Carol Hughes—the NDP MP for Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, who is retiring arsenic her riding disappears from a redrawn electoral map— also pushed warned against putting excessively overmuch banal successful polling. 

"For years we've seen wherever the pollsters person indicated that the NDP wouldn't bash precise well, would suffer their status, would vanish from the map," she said.

"And I deliberation that there's immoderate radical that would similar to spot that, but for the astir part, what we person seen is that we've been capable to punch above."

Campaign strategy 

There are 5 weeks of campaigning earlier Canadians caput to the polls and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is "off to a bully start," according to erstwhile Parry Sound-Muskoka MP Tony Clement.

"[Poilievre] has immoderate precise substantive argumentation issues that he's addressed, including a 15 per cent taxation cut, and I deliberation you're going to spot that passim the run that helium has thought astir the issues," said Clement, who served arsenic some a national and provincial furniture minister. 

Hughes suggests that portion smaller parties similar the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois may person immoderate impact, she thinks voters volition yet absorption connected which enactment tin present factual results for Canadians during challenging economical times.

She believes the NDP volition stress their way grounds of helping radical during inflationary periods, hoping voters volition spot them arsenic the champion choice.

"We're surely not going to beryllium looking astatine pushing guardant connected the large spending that the Conservatives and the Liberals ever do," she said. "They speech astir taxation cuts, but those taxation cuts truly conscionable payment the millionaires and the billionaires."

Hughes criticized Prime Minister and Liberal person Mark Carney, who pledged a one-point taxation chopped to the archetypal income bracket and Poilievre's similar pledge of a 2.25 per cent taxation cut.

She argued that their projected taxation cuts for the archetypal income bracket chiefly payment affluent individuals alternatively than those earning $60,000 oregon less.

But according to Thibeault, the Liberal taxation reduction strategy aims to summation affordability by keeping much wealth successful people's pockets, citing Carney's caller determination to cancel the proposed hike to the superior gains tax. 

He argued that Carney's approach focuses connected helping those astatine $60,000 and beneath by providing taxation alleviation that volition promote radical to walk money, addressing the broader contented of planetary inflation.

The conflict for seats successful bluish Ontario

Hughes said she feels northeastern Ontario volition beryllium wounded by sending six MPs to Ottawa alternatively of seven, believing that is has made it much hard to recruit candidates. 

"It was truly unfortunate to spot that the Conservatives weren't supportive of maintaining each the seats that we had successful bluish Ontario," she said. "I deliberation truly it's the voters astatine the extremity of the day, the northerners astatine the extremity of the day, that are the losers."

According to Thibeault, northern Ontario represents a captious portion for Canadian sovereignty, with strategical borderline towns similar Sault Ste. Marie and economical centres similar Sudbury. He said the area's resources are essential to nationalist economical and strategical interests.

As for the Conservatives, they're hoping to breakthrough successful bluish Ontario this election. 

"Northern Ontario punches supra its value and volition beryllium not lone captious successful the election, but I deliberation station election, due to the fact that of captious minerals being specified an important facet of going guardant with our sovereignty and with our economical improvement that that volition continue," Clement said.