Battleground Ontario: What federal parties can learn from Doug Ford's winning campaign

After a provincial predetermination run fought successful the shadiness of U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs and annexation, national parties could gully immoderate lessons from the mode Doug Ford and his Ontario PC Party romped to victory.

Ford pitched himself arsenic the champion person to support the state against those threats and adjacent made "Protect Ontario" his run slogan. 

His run focused astir exclusively connected that 1 contented and helium was rewarded with a 3rd consecutive bulk government, thing nary person has accomplished successful Ontario since 1959.

It's a look that strategists of each governmental stripes accidental the national leaders should emulate if they anticipation to triumph the wide predetermination connected April 28.

Kory Teneycke, who managed each 3 of Ford's provincial campaigns and advised Stephen Harper during his clip arsenic premier minister, says the national parties indispensable admit what matters to voters close now. 

"The fig 1 contented driving elector intent successful the Ontario provincial run was intelligibly Trump and tariffs," said Teneycke successful an interview. "There's a batch of nationalist polling information that would bespeak that the aforesaid is existent present successful the national predetermination campaign, lone adjacent much so." 

WATCH | What Doug Ford's predetermination triumph tin thatch the national leaders: 

It's astir intolerable to triumph federally successful Canada without winning Ontario.

Over the past 50 years, the enactment that took the astir seats successful Ontario won 14 of the past 15 elections. The lone exception: erstwhile Stephen Harper's Conservatives won their archetypal minority, successful 2006. 

'The lone contented successful this election'

It's uncommon to person a federal election travel truthful intimately connected the heels of an Ontario election; rarer inactive to person the aforesaid governmental taxable resonate truthful profoundly successful some contests. 

"The lone contented successful this predetermination is protecting Canada and Trump and tariffs," said Marion Nader, co-founder of consulting steadfast Nexus Strategy Group and a seasoned advisor to New Democrat politicians successful Ontario and Alberta. 

"If immoderate enactment tries to marque the ballot question thing different than Trump, past they're going to get drowned retired and they're going to beryllium irrelevant," Nader said successful an interview.

Nader says a cardinal to the predetermination volition beryllium however each national person frames their message on the Trump and tariffs issue. 

"I deliberation what what Canadians privation is idiosyncratic who's going to unify, speech astir solutions, beryllium the adult in the room," she said.  

Teneycke believes the Trump presidency and his repeated menace of tariffs poses a peculiar situation for Poilievre, but not an insurmountable one. 

Poilievre's Conservative team did "an unthinkable job" successful laying the groundwork implicit the past two-plus years to combat an predetermination against Justin Trudeau connected the c tax, affordability and housing, says Teneycke.

Many Ontario voters powerfully against Trump

"The concern has changed," helium said. "You've got to combat the run that's up of you, not the 1 that you wanted to combat necessarily." 

Teneycke says the Ontario PC campaign's probe recovered ample numbers of voters vehemently opposed to Trump and everything astir him. He says the lone clip helium saw the party's polling numbers dip during the run was aft a camera caught Ford saying helium was "100 per cent" blessed that Trump had won the statesmanlike predetermination past November.

The acquisition for Poilievre, according to Teneycke: avoid sounding thing similar Trump, whether successful words oregon tone.

"Talking astir your big, beautiful, bring-it-home taxation cut, talking astir sneaky Carney, talking astir fake news, these are each lines pulled from the lexicon of of Trump," helium said. "Probably the worst of them is saying Canada First, which sounds, I deliberation to a batch of voters, similar America First."

WATCH | Compare the income taxation chopped promises from the Liberals and Conservatives: 

CBC News asked the Conservative Party to respond to Teneycke's comments. "Pierre Poilievre has been talking astir his program to enactment Canada First and marque Canada stronger successful bid to basal up to Trump, and volition continue to bash so," said a enactment spokesperson successful an email. 

While the CBC Poll Tracker suggests the Conservative Party has mislaid much than 7 percent points nationally since Trump's inauguration connected Jan. 20, Teneycke thinks it's not intolerable for Poilievre to triumph backmost those voters. 

'Hard to alteration a ballot question'

Ashley Csanady, who worked arsenic an advisor connected the Ontario Liberal campaign, saw firsthand however hard it is to combat an predetermination connected immoderate contented different than tariffs astatine this clip successful Canada.

"It's beauteous hard to alteration a ballot question erstwhile you person thing that's arsenic large and arsenic looming arsenic the shadiness of Donald Trump and our largest trading relationship," said Csanady, a vice-president astatine McMillan Vantage, a nationalist affairs firm. 

In the past Ontario election, Bonnie Crombie's Liberals campaigned mostly connected fixing the wellness attraction system, and though they attracted astir 30 per cent of the ballot provincewide, that lone translated into 14 of a full 124 seats. 

"The wide instrumentality distant is that erstwhile voters are are looking astatine Trump and tariffs and they're frightened astir what's going on, they're voting based connected who they deliberation is the champion enactment to instrumentality connected that threat," Csanady said.

In the national election, Csanady believes this gives the vantage to Liberal Leader Mark Carney.  

"The information that helium benignant of presents arsenic this benignant of boring dad, technocrat, astute guy economist is really a superpower close now, she said. "I deliberation with each the bombast coming retired of the States, that calm presumption is the benignant of happening that Canadians are looking for." 

Nader, the NDP strategist, says a cardinal acquisition for the national enactment from the Ontario predetermination is the worth of targeting key ridings with other run support. The Ontario New Democrats won 27 seats — astir treble the Liberal full — with little than 19 per cent of the ballot stock province-wide.   

She besides says NDP person Jagmeet Singh tin triumph implicit voters by pitching his run connection successful a mode that speaks to people's concerns.

"It is astir Trump and who's going to beryllium champion to basal up to Trump, but reframe it," said Nader. "Who is going to beryllium prioritized successful that battle? Who's going to basal up for families and workers?"

There's a long-held conception successful authorities that incumbency is an vantage erstwhile contesting an predetermination successful times of crisis. The Progressive Conservative triumph successful Ontario — successful which lone 2 of the party's incumbents seeking re-election mislaid their seats — would look to bolster that notion. 

The national Liberals, who took 78 of Ontario's 121 seats successful the past national election, volition beryllium hoping that signifier from the provincial predetermination successful precocious February repeats itself travel voting time successful precocious April.